{"id":96912,"date":"2025-12-16T11:57:30","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T14:57:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=96912"},"modified":"2025-12-16T11:57:30","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T14:57:30","slug":"systemic-crime-raises-costs-deters-investment-in-brazil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/systemic-crime-raises-costs-deters-investment-in-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"Systemic crime raises costs, deters investment in Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"medium-centered subtitle\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__subtitle\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Widespread violence undermines competitiveness, productivity, and investor confidence<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\">12\/16\/2025\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body \">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"61\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">High, persistent, and widespread crime and violence in Brazil create an economically hostile environment across large parts of the country. This discourages interest from both domestic and foreign investors and leads to significant costs for businesses, including losses in productivity, competitiveness, and human capital. Experts point out that the problem worsens when criminal organizations infiltrate the political sphere and public administration.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wall protected-content\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"62\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cThe economy is a connected system. Governments create public policies to help the population and businesses generally,\u201d said\u00a0<strong>Daniel Cerqueira<\/strong>, a board member of the Brazilian\u00a0<strong>Public Security Forum<\/strong>. \u201cIf governments are chaotic, if they don\u2019t work well, if laws are poorly made, and if the environment is unfriendly to investment, it naturally causes capital to leave and investment interest to decrease.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"57\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">This situation can be understood from both an international perspective\u2014Brazil\u2019s relationship with the rest of the world\u2014and a domestic one, Cerqueira said. \u201cIn a study analyzing 62 countries, researchers found that higher homicide rates are associated with lower foreign direct investment,\u201d he said, citing research by Leanora Brown and Keva Hibbert that includes Brazil in the sample.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"65\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The economic impacts of crime work through various channels, according to Cerqueira. The first is that crime and violence raise business costs, which lowers companies\u2019 competitiveness. \u201cCosts increase through direct channels, such as the need for businesses operating in violent environments to pay higher freight and insurance premiums. But there is also productivity loss through indirect channels, such as the victimization of workers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"66\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">That victimization, in turn, may be direct\u2014such as when a worker dies due to violence\u2014or indirect, involving physical and\/or psychological effects on employees. \u201cThere is an issue of human capital loss, whether because the employee was murdered or because they developed, for example, post-traumatic stress disorder and need to take time off for treatment. All of this ultimately also represents a cost for companies,\u201d Cerqueira said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"42\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">A 2023 study by the Center for Studies on Security and Citizenship (CESeC) showed, for example, that rates of hypertension, prolonged insomnia, depression, and anxiety are higher in communities in Rio de Janeiro that are more exposed to shootouts involving security forces.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"110\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">These costs influence companies\u2019 strategic choices: they might decide not to start a business in violent areas or, if already there, to leave. \u201cRio has several examples. The Jacarezinho area, which experienced what was then the deadliest police operation until this year\u2019s operation [in the Alem\u00e3o\/Penha complex], once hosted numerous factories. They gradually shut down as the area became extremely violent,\u201d Cerqueira said. \u201cThere was a demobilization of physical capital to other locations, and that represents a cost for companies.\u201d Cerqueira is referring to a police operation that left 28 people dead in the Jacarezinho favela in 2021.\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/politics\/news\/2025\/11\/04\/rio-governor-defends-deadly-raid-citing-legality-and-human-rights.ghtml\" data-mrf-link=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/politics\/news\/2025\/11\/04\/rio-governor-defends-deadly-raid-citing-legality-and-human-rights.ghtml\">In this year\u2019s mega-operation, 121 people were killed<\/a>, including four police officers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"92\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Violence can also reduce consumer willingness to frequent these businesses and ultimately undermine profitability, the expert added. \u201cIt can discourage certain types of consumption, such as restaurants and cultural activities, because people are afraid to go out, in addition to its effects on tourism by foreigners and Brazilians,\u201d he said. \u201cTourism is a sector that, for a long time, several countries such as Portugal and Spain have strategically used as an engine of development, but a country that appears in the news every day because of high levels of violence discourages tourists.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">This has the potential to affect Brazil\u2019s current account balance, which records transactions between residents and non-residents. \u201cTourism functions as a kind of export for us, and that would be declining,\u201d Cerqueira compares.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"72\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Another factor related to organized crime that lowers productivity in legitimate companies is the infiltration of criminal organizations into legal sectors, Cerqueira noted. \u201cWith funds that often come from money laundering, they can sell at lower prices. To stay competitive, other legitimate businesses are forced to cut prices\u2014not because that competitor is more efficient, but simply because it has surplus resources from illegal markets. There are many examples of this,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"86\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">He cites a recent case:\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/markets\/news\/2025\/09\/01\/fuel-scandal-shines-light-on-secretive-single-investor-funds.ghtml\" data-mrf-link=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/markets\/news\/2025\/09\/01\/fuel-scandal-shines-light-on-secretive-single-investor-funds.ghtml\">Operation Hidden Carbon<\/a>, which dismantled a complex network of shell companies, investment funds, and fintechs used by the criminal organization Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) to launder money, defraud the fuel market, and hide assets. The Institute for Legal Fuel (ICL), which represents major fuel distribution and petrochemical companies, estimates that at least R$30 billion is siphoned off from the sector annually due to tax evasion, non-payment, and fraud against consumers, including pump tampering and fuel adulteration, known as \u201cblended fuels.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"98\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">A more recent issue in Brazil that has also attracted attention\u2014and carries economic consequences\u2014is the infiltration of organized crime into politics and public administration. \u201cWhen policy decisions are made to benefit specific groups, laws and contracts are drafted in a biased way, leading to a broad loss of economic efficiency. This is a cost that society as a whole will have to bear,\u201d Cerqueira said. He cited, as an example, bus companies in S\u00e3o Paulo that are under investigation for alleged links to the PCC. \u201cThese are contracts that may be costing society more while generating less well-being.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"74\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Even before the major operation in Rio de Janeiro at the end of October,\u00a0<strong>William Jackson<\/strong>, chief economist for emerging markets at Capital Economics, had already pointed to \u201cworrying signs regarding the prevalence of criminal organizations in Brazil recently.\u201d In his view, recent events \u201chave highlighted that crime is a politically relevant issue and that there is a shift\u2014at least in some parts of the political spectrum\u2014toward a much tougher approach to fighting criminality.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"56\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Jackson estimated that high crime rates reduce Latin America\u2019s potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth by around 0.25 percentage points, placing Brazil in an intermediate position. \u201cIt is not as severe as in some high-crime regions, such as parts of Central America, but it carries a higher cost than in other countries\u2014for example, Uruguay and Chile.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Although conditions have improved compared with last year, Brazil ranks as the third least peaceful country among 11 in South America assessed by the 2025 Global Peace Index (GPI).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"44\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Produced by the think tank Institute for Economics &amp; Peace (IEP), the GPI evaluated 163 countries and independent territories in this year\u2019s edition. Brazil ranks 130th, an improvement over its 2024 ranking. Within South America, however, only Venezuela (139th) and Colombia (140th) perform worse.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"60\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The index includes 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators that evaluate the \u201cstate of peace\u201d across three areas: the level of ongoing domestic and international conflict, the degree of militarization, and safety and security\u2014the category where Brazil scores the lowest. This grouping considers factors like national harmony or discord, including crime rates, terrorist activities, violent protests, and relations with neighboring countries.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"44\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\"><strong>Felipe Tavares<\/strong>, chief economist at BCG Liquidez, references a study by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) showing that Southern Cone countries lose about 3.39% of GDP annually due to high crime rates. In Brazil\u2019s case, the yearly social loss is estimated at R$372.9 billion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"60\" data-block-id=\"23\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Based on this, Tavares estimated that R$32 billion of that amount is attributed to the state of Rio de Janeiro. Focusing only on the direct effects of violent crime, the yearly impact would be approximately R$13 billion. Tavares also estimates that arrivals of foreign tourists experience an average negative impact of 0.17%, which affects sectors like hospitality, retail, and services.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"51\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Using a municipal-level econometric approach, distinct from that employed by the IDB, Tavares reached similar conclusions: the economic impact of crime in Rio de Janeiro ranges from R$10.7 billion to R$11.5 billion per year. \u201cCrime erodes wealth, reduces productivity, and imposes a persistent social cost on the state\u2019s economy,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"76\" data-block-id=\"25\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">From an economic perspective, crime can be understood as an \u201cincentives problem,\u201d Tavares argues. He cites Gary Becker (1930-2014), the American economist and 1992 Nobel laureate who developed, among other ideas, the \u201ceconomics of crime.\u201d The idea, Tavares explains, is that criminal behavior is also a rational decision: individuals weigh the expected benefit of the crime against the cost of punishment. If the perceived gain outweighs the risk of punishment, crime becomes an economically viable option.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"80\" data-block-id=\"26\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cIn contexts of high poverty and inequality\u2014as is chronically the case in the state of Rio de Janeiro\u2014the imbalance between the costs and benefits of crime tends to intensify. Adverse economic cycles increase the appeal of illicit activities, especially in regions where the presence of the state is weak and the expected returns from formal employment are low,\u201d Tavares said. The result, he added, is a parallel economy that competes with the productive economy, distorts incentives, and destroys human capital.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"95\" data-block-id=\"27\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">It is also based on diagnoses like this that\u00a0<strong>Renato Galeno<\/strong>, coordinator of the international relations program at the business school IBMEC-RJ, argues that equating criminal factions with terrorist groups would not be an effective method for combating organized crime. \u201cWhen we talk about terrorist groups, we think in terms of means and ends. Violence is not an end in itself; the end is rooted in strong convictions and political and ideological motivations\u2014broadly speaking, in revolutionary, religious, nationalist, or ethnic or racial movements. This is very different from groups whose objective is to make money.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"79\" data-block-id=\"29\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Because the motivations of these two types of organizations differ, the way to address them must also differ, Galeno argued. \u201cPeople who are part of terrorist groups are highly driven by passion. The measures to prevent them from being drawn into such groups are different. For groups that want to make money, people can still walk away\u2014what I call a \u2018social remedy.\u2019 Confusing the two does not help and may harm Brazil, its population, and its businesses,\u201d he argued.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div data-track-category=\"multicontent\" data-track-action=\"ultimo chunk conteudo\" data-track-noninteraction=\"false\" data-track-scroll=\"view\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"30\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Jackson, of Capital Economics, added that in this effort Brazil faces a \u201cparticularly challenging\u201d fiscal situation, with little room to increase spending on crime-fighting. \u201cThe room for maneuver is limited.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">*By\u00a0Ana\u00efs Fernandes\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Widespread violence undermines competitiveness, productivity, and investor confidence &nbsp; &nbsp; 12\/16\/2025\u00a0 High, persistent, and widespread crime and violence in Brazil create an economically hostile environment across large parts of the country. This discourages interest from both domestic and foreign investors and leads to significant costs for businesses, including losses in productivity, competitiveness, and human capital. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26648,26647],"class_list":["post-96912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-deters-investment-in-brazil","tag-systemic-crime-raises-costs"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Systemic crime raises costs, deters investment in Brazil - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/systemic-crime-raises-costs-deters-investment-in-brazil\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Systemic crime raises costs, deters investment in Brazil - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Widespread violence undermines competitiveness, productivity, and investor confidence &nbsp; &nbsp; 12\/16\/2025\u00a0 High, persistent, and widespread crime and violence in Brazil create an economically hostile environment across large parts of the country. 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This discourages interest from both domestic and foreign investors and leads to significant costs for businesses, including losses in productivity, competitiveness, and human capital. 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