{"id":96582,"date":"2025-11-10T12:29:48","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T15:29:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=96582"},"modified":"2025-11-10T12:29:48","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T15:29:48","slug":"delinquency-rises-among-small-firms-but-banks-remain-unconcerned","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/delinquency-rises-among-small-firms-but-banks-remain-unconcerned\/","title":{"rendered":"Delinquency rises among small firms, but banks remain unconcerned"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em>Higher-risk debt among SMEs climbs to 8.9%, partly due to new accounting rules<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\">11\/10\/2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\">\n<div class=\"content__share-bar\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body \">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"41\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The share of loans classified as \u201chigher risk\u201d for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has been rising since the beginning of the year. Data from Brazil\u2019s Central Bank shows the rate climbed from 8.2% in January to 8.9% in September.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wall protected-content\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"48\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Part of the increase reflects the impact of new accounting rules under Resolution 4,966. Still, banks acknowledge that SME delinquency is growing and requires attention, though it has not yet reached alarming levels. The expected cut in the benchmark Selic rate early next year also offers some relief.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"57\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The higher-risk assets indicator includes financial instruments and credit operations classified as \u201cstage 3\u201d under Resolution 4,966, which covers loans with serious recovery issues. The resolution took effect at the beginning of this year. Meanwhile, SME delinquency rose from 4.5% in January to 5.4% in September, after peaking at 5.5% in August, the highest since May 2018.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The Central Bank\u2019s\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/commentary\/columnists-alex-ribeiro\/commentary\/central-bank-signals-prolonged-tightening-to-tame-inflation.ghtml\" data-mrf-link=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/commentary\/columnists-alex-ribeiro\/commentary\/central-bank-signals-prolonged-tightening-to-tame-inflation.ghtml\">most recent Monetary Policy Report\u00a0<\/a>estimated that about 70% of the increase in overall delinquency in the first half of the year is linked to the effects of Resolution 4,966.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"52\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Ricardo Jacomassi, partner and chief economist at TCP Partners, noted that the credit market has grown rapidly despite high interest rates. The Selic stands at 15%, and the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) has signaled that it will remain high \u201cfor quite a prolonged period,\u201d\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/economy\/news\/2025\/11\/06\/analysis-subtle-change-in-copom-tone-revives-bets-on-selic-cut.ghtml\" data-mrf-link=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/economy\/news\/2025\/11\/06\/analysis-subtle-change-in-copom-tone-revives-bets-on-selic-cut.ghtml\">as stated in the latest minutes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\"><strong>Financial tools<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"54\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Mr. Jacomassi said part of the difference in behavior between SMEs and large companies lies in the financing tools available. Large companies have access to structured operations, bond issuance, and more collateral. \u201cSmall and mid-sized firms don\u2019t have the same options and are heavily reliant on working capital loans and receivables-backed credit,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"35\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">In the third-quarter earnings call, Santander\u2019s CFO Gustavo Alejo said short-term delinquency has improved, especially among individual borrowers. \u201cAll \u2018vintages\u2019 are performing well, but we see some concern in the small business segment,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"61\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">At Ita\u00fa Unibanco, SME delinquency rose 0.1 percentage point from the second to the third quarter, \u201cdue to normalization following the end of grace periods under government programs.\u201d At Bradesco, the rate declined, and CEO Marcelo Noronha said he sees room for further drops, even though the bank\u2019s overall delinquency rate is expected to remain relatively stable in the coming quarters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"46\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">A Central Bank study in its latest Financial Stability Report found that during interest rate hikes, smaller companies are the first to be affected, hurting their repayment capacity. \u201cThey\u2019re hit faster because their debt rollovers are shorter, which directly increases their interest expenses,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"56\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Ricardo Moura, head of investor relations, M&amp;A, and strategy at Banco ABC Brasil, agreed. He noted that smaller firms did not benefit as much from capital markets expansion in recent years and are now forced to borrow at higher rates from banks during this tightening cycle. \u201cThey don\u2019t have longer-term liabilities and end up suffering more.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">At ABC Brasil, a conservative credit approach led to a drop in mid-sized company delinquency between June and September. Still, Mr. Moura said he does not expect further declines ahead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"51\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">In a statement, D\u00e9cio Lima, president of Brazil\u2019s small business agency Sebrae, said the rise in SME delinquency is \u201cmoderate and compatible\u201d with the current economic cycle. \u201cThis is not a sign of uncontrolled deterioration, but a natural adjustment in a more selective credit environment with higher financial costs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"39\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">He added that expectations for the coming months are for stability or gradual improvement, driven by a more predictable economy and stronger support and debt renegotiation measures. \u201cThere are challenges, but also tools and ways to address them responsibly.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"4\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\"><strong>New accounting standard<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"44\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Resolution 4,966 adopts an expected-loss model, replacing the previous incurred-loss approach. Under the new rule,financial institutions must use economic analysis to estimate potential defaults. It also delays the write-off of problematic assets, which raises the numerator over time and ends up increasing measured delinquency.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cBanks must provision based on the probability of future defaults, using macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts,\u201d explained Gisele Assis, a partner specializing in payments and regulation at the law firm \/asbz.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The Brazilian Association of Banks (ABBC) said economic conditions are contributing to the rise in SME defaults. However, much of the increase in high-risk loan balances is due to the new accounting standard.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cThe changes in how financial institutions recognize expected losses and write-offs have affected how credit operations are allocated to stage 3. This will take time to adjust as lenders recalibrate their internal recovery metrics,\u201d the ABBC said in a note.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"65\" data-block-id=\"22\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The Brazilian Federation of Banks (FEBRABAN) also said the uptick in SME delinquency is partially due to the new rule but also reflects real increases driven by high interest rates. It cited government-backed programs like Pronampe, which offers credit to small businesses at Selic-linked rates. \u201cWith the likely scenario of no further Selic hikes, we could see improvement starting early next year,\u201d the federation said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">FEBRABAN added that large companies continue to benefit from ample liquidity in capital markets. \u201cStill, there are some isolated signs of risk, such as bankruptcy filings, which deserve attention.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"6\" data-block-id=\"25\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\"><strong>7.6 million SMEs behind on payments<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"49\" data-block-id=\"26\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The challenges facing SMEs are also reflected in other indicators. Data from credit bureau Serasa Experian showed that by July, 7.6 million small and medium-sized companies in Brazil were behind on at least one financial obligation\u2014ranging from bank loans to utility bills or supplier payments\u2014totaling 54 million overdue debts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div data-track-category=\"multicontent\" data-track-action=\"ultimo chunk conteudo\" data-track-noninteraction=\"false\" data-track-scroll=\"view\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"51\" data-block-id=\"27\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Camila Abdelmalack, chief economist at Serasa Experian, said the slowdown in credit availability has made it harder for SMEs to refinance or roll over debt. \u201cWe came from a period of greater credit availability and easier renegotiation. With tighter credit, these difficulties are now showing up in rising delinquency,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">*By\u00a0Gabriel Shinohara\u00a0and\u00a0\u00c1lvaro Campos\u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edlia and S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Higher-risk debt among SMEs climbs to 8.9%, partly due to new accounting rules &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11\/10\/2025 The share of loans classified as \u201chigher risk\u201d for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has been rising since the beginning of the year. Data from Brazil\u2019s Central Bank shows the rate climbed from 8.2% in January to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26584],"class_list":["post-96582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-delinquency-rises-among-small-firms"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Delinquency rises among small firms, but banks remain unconcerned - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/delinquency-rises-among-small-firms-but-banks-remain-unconcerned\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Delinquency rises among small firms, but banks remain unconcerned - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Higher-risk debt among SMEs climbs to 8.9%, partly due to new accounting rules &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11\/10\/2025 The share of loans classified as \u201chigher risk\u201d for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has been rising since the beginning of the year. 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