{"id":96371,"date":"2025-10-28T21:55:46","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T00:55:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=96371"},"modified":"2025-10-28T21:58:47","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T00:58:47","slug":"u-s-expected-to-gain-ground-in-brazilian-pulp-exports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/u-s-expected-to-gain-ground-in-brazilian-pulp-exports\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. expected to gain ground in Brazilian pulp exports"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Shifts in China\u2019s industry open new opportunities for Brazil in the American market<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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10\/28\/2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Brazil\u2019s share of the global pulp market is expected to grow by 6%, reaching 34% by 2030, according to Rabobank. The increase will be driven by new mill capacity and a shift from softwood (pine) to hardwood (eucalyptus) pulp. Although China remains the leading buyer of Brazilian hardwood pulp, the rapid expansion of integrated pulp production in the country is likely to reduce import volumes in the coming years\u2014creating an opportunity for the United States, currently the second-largest destination, to gain ground in Brazil\u2019s export portfolio.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Traditionally, Chinese producers faced high costs and limited wood availability, which made them heavily dependent on imported market pulp. However, during the real estate crisis in 2021, surplus wood originally intended for construction was redirected toward integrated pulp production.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to Rabobank, China\u2019s integrated hardwood pulp capacity surged from 5,000 tonnes in 2016 to 9,500 tonnes in 2024. The bank projects that by 2027, production will reach 14,500 tonnes\u2014a nearly 53% increase.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cOf the projects planned in the past three years, no one had anticipated this development,\u201d says Andres Padilla, analyst at Rabobank. He notes that the market will likely adjust, with the most efficient producers filling the space left by less competitive ones. Even so, part of the displaced demand will need to find new markets\u2014and the U.S. is emerging as a promising destination for Brazilian fiber.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In 2024, Brazil supplied 82% of U.S. short-fiber pulp imports, totaling 2 million tonnes, according to Rabobank\u2019s report. This marks a 74% increase from a decade earlier and an average annual growth rate of 4.7%. The pulp is primarily used for tissue paper production, including toilet paper and facial tissues.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the long-fiber segment, typically used for paper packaging, the U.S. market has long been dominated by Canada. However, post-pandemic shifts in global supply chains have opened room for Brazilian and European producers. In 2024, Brazil accounted for 10% of U.S. softwood pulp imports\u2014around 300,000 tonnes\u2014while Canada\u2019s share fell to 75%, according to the bank.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cBrazil is well-positioned. In addition to managing exchange rate volatility more effectively, it benefits from low production costs and competitive logistics,\u201d says Mr. Padilla.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This strength, he explains, is the result of several factors\u2014including the short seven-year rotation cycle of eucalyptus, advances in genetic research that boosted productivity, and large-scale investments in integrated pulp mills.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Beyond Suzano\u2019s Cerrado Project, companies such as Chile\u2019s Arauco and CMPC, as well as Indonesia\u2019s Bracell, are expanding operations in Brazil. There are also expectations for a second production line at the Eldorado mill in Tr\u00eas Lagoas, Mato Grosso do Sul. With these new capacities, Rabobank estimates that Brazil\u2019s pulp exports will rise from 20 million tonnes today to 25 million tonnes by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Another factor supporting this growth, Mr. Padilla notes, is the price gap between hardwood and softwood pulp, known as the \u201cspread.\u201d Currently, hardwood pulp sells for about $250 to $300 less per tonne on the U.S. East Coast market, according to Rabobank.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThere\u2019s a clear economic incentive for hardwood pulp to gain market share in the U.S.,\u201d Mr. Padilla explains. \u201cThe spread is wide right now, and the supply and demand dynamics suggest it will be difficult to close that gap in the short to medium term.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Beyond pricing, Brazil\u2019s advantage lies in its long-standing commercial relationships with U.S. buyers and its reputation for reliability and quality. \u201cBrazilian suppliers already have deep, consistent partnerships with U.S. clients, meeting their needs efficiently,\u201d Mr. Padilla adds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Against this backdrop, the White House\u2019s decision to impose a 10% tariff on Brazilian pulp last year was, according to him, \u201ca shot in the foot.\u201d It is no coincidence, he says, that Washington quickly reversed course and eliminated the tariff.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Helena Benfica\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shifts in China\u2019s industry open new opportunities for Brazil in the American market       10\/28\/2025 Brazil\u2019s share of the global pulp market is expected to grow by 6%, reaching 34% by 2030, according to Rabobank. 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