{"id":95858,"date":"2025-09-24T10:38:58","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T13:38:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=95858"},"modified":"2025-09-24T10:38:58","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T13:38:58","slug":"brazil-will-need-fiscal-adjustment-after-2026-goldman-sachs-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazil-will-need-fiscal-adjustment-after-2026-goldman-sachs-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil will need fiscal adjustment after 2026, Goldman Sachs says"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head non-featured \">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__title\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Whoever wins next year\u2019s election will have to persuade voters that fixing public finances is necessary, says Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economic research at the investment bank<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\">09\/24\/2025\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\">\n<div class=\"content__share-bar\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body \">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Convincing Brazilians that a fiscal adjustment is necessary after the 2026 election won\u2019t be an easy task for any incoming president, given the country\u2019s \u201creasonably good\u201d economic growth over the past three years, fueled, in the words of Goldman Sachs, by \u201cfiscal steroids.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wall protected-content\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"84\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cThe essence of populism is this short-term sense of well-being achieved through mechanisms that are unsustainable over time. The bill comes later,\u201d said Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economic research at Goldman Sachs. \u201cWhat worries me is that after the election, whoever wins will need to push for a fiscal adjustment when the population doesn\u2019t feel there\u2019s a problem. Growth has been good, unemployment low, wages rising. I don\u2019t think people will buy into the idea that we need a deep fiscal adjustment.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Mr. Ramos contrasted Brazil\u2019s situation with Argentina\u2019s, where President Javier Milei won office on a platform of tough reforms at a time when the economy was already in deep trouble, facing contraction, soaring inflation, and rapid impoverishment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"48\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cHe pushed through a fiscal adjustment equivalent to 6 percentage points of GDP in an economy that also had very rigid spending, and was already suffering significantly. But it was clear to most of the population that the Kirchnerist model had failed\u2014economically, socially, and politically,\u201d Mr. Ramos said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"33\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">He believes part of the recent improvement in Brazilian asset prices stems from investor expectations that a new administration will take office in 2027, and bring with it a shift in economic policy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"72\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cNo matter who wins, a fiscal adjustment will be inevitable, and it won\u2019t be easy,\u201d he said. \u201cIf President Lula is reelected, fiscal realities will impose tighter constraints, otherwise, things won\u2019t end well. A more conservative candidate would probably be more inclined to implement that adjustment. But my question is: Is Brazil ready?,\u201d Mr. Ramos asked, adding that he\u2019s not fully convinced about a scenario in which the current opposition wins either.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"43\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Mr. Ramos said the necessary overhaul would include loosening the rigid structure of public spending: changing laws that tie budget allocations to health and education, revising the rule that mandates real increases to the minimum wage, and reviewing other legislation that hardwires spending.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"13\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cWe already know the path to take, if there\u2019s political will,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"2\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\"><strong>Political balance<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"83\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">One hurdle, however, is that \u201cCongress is not exactly the guardian of fiscal orthodoxy,\u201d Mr. Ramos added. \u201cThe real fight between Congress and the government is just about who gets credit for the spending. The political balance may not be one that allows these reforms\u2014some of which are constitutional\u2014to pass. In Argentina, the crisis helped get them through. That\u2019s not our situation, thankfully, but if we keep delaying, we may hit a breaking point that forces a much more painful and destabilizing adjustment.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"30\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Brazil\u2019s fiscal issues aren\u2019t new, but have worsened recently, leaving policymakers with less room to maneuver, he said. One example: the government has already raised taxes without improving fiscal fundamentals.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"50\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cA fiscal adjustment that relies on tax hikes is already a poor-quality fix, but even so, how would society react, after four years of rising taxes?\u201d Mr. Ramos asked. \u201cWe\u2019ve used up our ammo without defeating the enemy. We raised taxes to spend more, not to improve the primary balance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"17\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Adjusting for the economic cycle, Brazil\u2019s fiscal picture is worse than the headline numbers suggest, he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"59\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cWhen the economy was booming, the government doubled down and injected even more liquidity, overheating the system. The best time to make adjustments is when the economy is doing well. Now, it\u2019s slowing, and they want to reverse the fiscal impulse. They should\u2019ve held back earlier, taken advantage of the revenue from growth to build a better primary result.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Mr. Ramos said Brazil\u2019s economy is now slowing because it has hit \u201ccapacity constraints.\u201d He believes the recent GDP growth of 3% or more is above the country\u2019s potential. On top of that, monetary policy remains tight.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"52\" data-block-id=\"19\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cBut if someone arrived from another planet and saw Brazil with 15% nominal interest rates and 10% real rates, they\u2019d assume the country is in deep recession. And it\u2019s not\u2014it\u2019s just slowing, because there are credit policies, quasi-fiscal programs. The effectiveness of monetary policy has been undermined by fiscal activism,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"21\" data-block-id=\"20\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Letting the economy slow is necessary to bring down inflation and eventually lower both inflation and interest rates, Mr. Ramos added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"23\" data-block-id=\"21\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cIf no action is taken, that\u2019s the path we\u2019re on\u2014and it\u2019s not one we should resist, because we\u2019re not facing an economic collapse.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"65\" data-block-id=\"22\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">He said he doesn\u2019t expect a \u201cfiscal disaster in 2026,\u201d despite it being an election year. \u201cBut we should be running a surplus,\u201d he said. \u201cThis government\u2019s view, which I don\u2019t share, that the economy only grows through fiscal stimulus, paired with an upcoming election, means that the current slowdown is probably not deep enough to allow monetary policy to shift to a neutral stance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"28\" data-block-id=\"24\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Even if there is room for the Central Bank to begin cutting rates in December, he said, interest rates will likely remain tight through the end of 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"25\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Mr. Ramos acknowledged some improvement in headline inflation but noted that service inflation \u201cis still far from good.\u201d Currency appreciation and lower prices for commodities and food have helped, he said, but given those factors, \u201cInflation should be around 2%.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"49\" data-block-id=\"26\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cThat\u2019s not the case. The target is 3%, and we\u2019ve been above it for many years. The Central Bank\u2019s projections don\u2019t even place 3% within the relevant forecast horizon. It\u2019s a tough battle that requires a completely different fiscal approach from what we\u2019ve seen over the past four years.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div data-track-category=\"multicontent\" data-track-action=\"ultimo chunk conteudo\" data-track-noninteraction=\"false\" data-track-scroll=\"view\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"27\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\u201cThe difference between medicine and poison is dosage,\u201d he added. \u201cMonetary policy is the medicine, but its dosage can become toxic because of fiscal policy. Fiscal policy needs to take over the burden that monetary policy is carrying right now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">*By\u00a0Ana\u00efs Fernandes\u00a0and\u00a0Eduardo Belo\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Source: Valor International<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Whoever wins next year\u2019s election will have to persuade voters that fixing public finances is necessary, says Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economic research at the investment bank &nbsp; &nbsp; 09\/24\/2025\u00a0 Convincing Brazilians that a fiscal adjustment is necessary after the 2026 election won\u2019t be an easy task for any incoming president, given the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26438],"class_list":["post-95858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-brazil-will-need-fiscal-adjustment-after-2026"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Brazil will need fiscal adjustment after 2026, Goldman Sachs says - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazil-will-need-fiscal-adjustment-after-2026-goldman-sachs-says\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil will need fiscal adjustment after 2026, Goldman Sachs says - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Whoever wins next year\u2019s election will have to persuade voters that fixing public finances is necessary, says Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economic research at the investment bank &nbsp; 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