{"id":95195,"date":"2025-08-01T12:14:27","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T15:14:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=95195"},"modified":"2025-08-01T12:14:27","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T15:14:27","slug":"redirecting-exports-is-slow-and-difficult-experts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/redirecting-exports-is-slow-and-difficult-experts-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Redirecting exports is slow and difficult, experts say"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Looking to other Asian markets beyond China could offer opportunities for some sectors<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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08\/01\/2025\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Opening new markets to redirect Brazilian products affected by the 50% U.S. tariff is a slow and challenging process that won\u2019t bear fruit in the short term, warn international trade experts. Some sectors may eventually find opportunities in Asian countries outside of China, currently the largest buyer of Brazilian goods.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The process of opening new markets can take months or even years, experts explain. Bureaucratic hurdles, including sanitary licenses and regulatory approvals, must be overcome, and companies still need time to establish business contracts in these new destinations. This is all unfolding amid global turbulence, with the U.S. tariffs affecting several countries at once and spurring everyone to seek alternative markets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Estimates on how much of Brazil\u2019s export portfolio is subject to the new tariff vary. According to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Mdic), the measure could affect 35.9% of Brazil\u2019s exports to the U.S. In 2024, those exports totaled $40.3 billion, meaning around $14.5 billion are at risk due to the tariff imposed by President Donald Trump\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Welber Barral, former foreign trade secretary and partner at BMJ Consultoria, divides the affected products into three groups. The first includes food commodities like coffee and meat. Due to their characteristics, these have a better chance of being redirected to other global markets or even within the U.S. itself\u2014but at the cost of lower prices, as the tariff effectively reduces American and global demand while supply remains unchanged.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The second group includes industrial products, particularly machinery. For these, the natural destination is Latin America, especially South America.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cChina, Indonesia, and India are large markets, but they don\u2019t have the same purchasing power as the U.S. Also, they\u2019re more likely to buy commodities, since Brazil can\u2019t compete in industrial products in those markets\u2014except for niche items,\u201d says Mr. Barral.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The third group consists of Brazilian subsidiaries of American companies. Their outlook is the worst, in Mr. Barral\u2019s view. \u201cMost likely, parent companies will seek factories in countries with lower tariffs to produce. Any investment plans in Brazil are now in limbo because companies no longer know to what extent they\u2019ll be able to export to their own headquarters.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Global demand conditions and supply in other regions also affect the search for new buyers, notes Jos\u00e9 Alfredo Gra\u00e7a Lima, vice president of the board at the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Coffee, for example, is largely exported to the U.S., but demand elsewhere in the world is already saturated, he says. \u201cIf we can\u2019t find a market to replace the U.S., prices will be affected,\u201d he warns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Lia Valls, head of economic analysis at UERJ and associate researcher at FGV Ibre, emphasizes that entering new markets requires meeting specific quality standards, which can be a lengthy process.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThese adaptations are not impossible, but they won\u2019t happen right away and won\u2019t be feasible for every product,\u201d she says. \u201cEach market has its own quality certifications\u2014Europe, for example, has very strict rules depending on the product.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Machines and shoes face particular challenges, says Ms. Valls. \u201cSome machines are custom-built for individual companies, and shoes are made to specific sizes. These products will require more significant adjustments to be suitable for new markets.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Given the situation, expanding the list of exemptions to the U.S. tariff may be the best-case scenario, says Jos\u00e9 Augusto de Castro, CEO of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB). \u201cPersonally, I think that list will expand. For some products, it simply doesn\u2019t make sense to be excluded,\u201d he says, citing coffee as an example\u2014since it isn\u2019t produced in the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the short term, betting on countries that already buy from Brazil may be the safest move, says Mirella Hirakawa, head of research at Buysidebrazil. \u201cThe question is whether there will be demand to absorb this surplus.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the case of beef, 10.3% of Brazilian exports in the first half of 2025 were destined for the U.S. Some of that volume could be redirected to China, which accounted for 51.6% of Brazil\u2019s beef exports.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Other products could follow the same path, says Ms. Hirakawa, including coffee\u2014the European Union buys around 33.8% of Brazil\u2019s coffee exports, compared to 16% by the U.S.\u2014and ethanol. In that case, China and South Korea each import more than double what the U.S. buys (11.8%).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Carlos Frederico Coelho, researcher at the BRICS Policy Center and professor of international trade at PUC-Rio\u2019s Institute of International Relations, believes Brazil can look to other Asian countries beyond China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIt\u2019s hard not to consider Asia. The continent may be the next frontier for protein exports. The challenge is, how much more can Brazil sell, given that we already export to the region? It will mean going beyond China,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the case of coffee, global demand could help redirect exports over the medium to long term, Mr. Coelho explains. \u201cThe Brazilian coffee that won\u2019t go to the U.S. will be replaced there by other suppliers. That opens up space elsewhere for Brazilian exports.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Brazilian footwear, which was also hit by the 50% U.S. export surcharge, can\u2019t easily be redirected to new markets due to its highly customized production, says Haroldo Ferreira, CEO of the Brazilian Footwear Industry Association (Abical\u00e7ados).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cI can\u2019t take that shoe and ship it to Chile or Europe, for example. It was developed for a specific importer,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to Mr. Ferreira, 22% of Brazilian footwear exports go to the U.S. \u201cLast year, we exported $216 million\u201410.3 million pairs. In the first half of 2025, we exported 5.8 million pairs, up 13.5%. In other markets, growth was 8.8% over the same period.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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For the textile sector, redirection is also costly due to the need for international infrastructure, such as distribution centers, sales networks, and local contacts, says Fernando Valente Pimentel, executive director of the Brazilian Textile and Apparel Industry Association (Abit).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIt\u2019s not a matter of just switching markets. You can\u2019t find new destinations right away,\u201d he says. \u201cThe viable option is the local market, which has its own specific demand.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr. Pimentel says the U.S. is one of the top three destinations for the industry\u2019s exports. \u201cWe expected to sell around R$500 million this year, half of which had already been fulfilled in the first half,\u201d he notes. \u201cBut with the new tariff, almost everything is jeopardized.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the search for new alternatives, Mr. Pimentel says the conclusion of the EU-Mercosur agreement is currently the sector\u2019s top priority. \u201cThe deal could open new space for trade, investment, acquisitions, and operational and technological partnerships,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Marcelo Osakabe,\u00a0Alex Jorge Braga\u00a0and\u00a0Michel Esquer\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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