{"id":95139,"date":"2025-07-29T12:48:49","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T15:48:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=95139"},"modified":"2025-07-29T12:48:49","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T15:48:49","slug":"vale-q2-profit-expected-to-drop-41-on-weaker-iron-ore-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/vale-q2-profit-expected-to-drop-41-on-weaker-iron-ore-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Vale Q2 profit expected to drop 41% on weaker iron ore prices"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Revenue and EBITDA also seen lower as volumes and prices decline<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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07\/29\/2025\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Vale is expected to report weaker results in the second quarter, due to lower iron ore prices during the period. According to projections from five firms consulted by Valor\u2014Citi, Ita\u00fa BBA, BTG Pactual, Goldman Sachs, and Ativa Investimentos\u2014the mining company\u2019s net income, revenue, and EBITDA should all fall short of the results posted between April and June of 2024. Vale is scheduled to release its earnings after markets close on Thursday (31).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The company\u2019s revenue is projected to reach approximately $8.8 billion, down 11.1% from the same period last year. Net income is expected to average $1.6 billion, a drop of 40.7%. EBITDA is forecast to fall 18.9%, to $3.1 billion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ativa noted that even though Vale posted higher-than-expected production in the second quarter, weaker prices disappointed expectations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ita\u00fa BBA said the quarter was marked by rising inventories and a focus on mid-grade products.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Production and sales data\u00a0released by Vale on July 22<\/a>\u00a0showed that total sales of iron ore fines, pellets, and run of mine (ROM), a type of raw ore, reached 77.35 million tonnes in the second quarter, a 3.1% year-over-year decline.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Sales of iron ore fines alone totaled 67.68 million tonnes, 1.2% lower than the same period in 2024. Pellet sales dropped 15.6% year over year to 7.48 million tonnes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Vale attributed the lower iron ore sales to its strategy of optimizing its product portfolio, with a concentration of shipments to China, leading to longer delivery times. Stock rebuilding after first-quarter production and shipping constraints also contributed to the lower sales.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The lower volumes came alongside weaker realized prices. The average price for Vale\u2019s iron ore fines in the second quarter was $85.10 per tonne, down 13.3% from a year earlier. Pellet prices averaged $134.10 per tonne, a 14.7% decrease. In both cases, the declines reflected falling international benchmarks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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BTG Pactual said the Q2 production and sales figures reinforce Vale\u2019s message that market conditions for high-grade ores remain weak. \u201cWhile we believe Vale\u2019s focus on product mix is the right call in a volatile market, it also highlights how unfavorable conditions remain for higher-quality ores,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Goldman Sachs pointed to lower iron ore prices and a stronger Brazilian real as potential risks going forward, both of which negatively affect Vale\u2019s profit. Still, the bank viewed the mining giant\u2019s strategic positioning favorably: \u201cThe reality, not just for Vale, is that mining quality is declining and the market is not rewarding it. So it makes sense to conserve iron molecules to extend output or reserve higher-quality ore for when prices justify it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Citi noted that Vale\u2019s iron ore output reached 151.2 million tonnes in the first half, putting the company on track to meet its 2025 guidance of 325 million to 355 million tonnes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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* By Kariny Leal, Valor\u00a0\u2014 Rio de Janeiro<\/figure>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Revenue and EBITDA also seen lower as volumes and prices decline     07\/29\/2025\u00a0 Vale is expected to report weaker results in the second quarter, due to lower iron ore prices during the period. 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