{"id":95024,"date":"2025-07-22T12:24:28","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T15:24:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=95024"},"modified":"2025-07-22T12:24:28","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T15:24:28","slug":"local-assets-rebound-in-line-with-global-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/local-assets-rebound-in-line-with-global-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Local assets rebound in line with global markets"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Short-term easing of tensions between Brazil and U.S. and globally weaker dollar boost real, Ibovespa, interest rates<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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07\/22\/2025\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

After two weeks of negative performance driven by escalating trade tensions with the United States, Brazilian markets saw a reprieve on Monday. With the U.S. dollar weakening globally and no new retaliatory measures announced by President Donald Trump against Brazil, local assets bounced back, reflected in modest gains in the stock market, a stronger real, and falling interest rates.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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By the end of the session, the dollar had fallen 0.41% to R$5.5644 in the spot market, while the Ibovespa gained 0.59% to close at 134,167 points. Internationally, the DXY index\u2014which tracks the dollar\u2019s performance against a basket of major currencies\u2014fell 0.64% by the time Brazilian markets closed, reaching 97.85 points.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Tensions between Washington and Bras\u00edlia intensified last week following precautionary measures by Brazil\u2019s Federal Police against former President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL) and the U.S. government\u2019s retaliatory move to revoke visas of Supreme Court justices. However, on Monday, there were no new developments, which, combined with a weaker dollar among both developed and emerging market currencies, brought relief to Brazilian markets, according to Eduardo Aun, macro portfolio manager at AZ Quest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThere was a lot of concern over the weekend that the U.S. might impose sanctions beyond tariffs, but in the end, that didn\u2019t happen. It could have been worse. Markets were pricing in the risk of something much harsher,\u201d Mr. Aun noted. As a result, he said, markets corrected on Monday after the worst-case scenarios failed to materialize.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr. Aun pointed out that the Brazilian real had already been outperforming other emerging market currencies, largely driven by the carry trade\u2014borrowing in low-interest-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones like the real. With short-term yields in Brazil offering 8% to 9% returns and expectations for lower volatility, the currency had become particularly attractive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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However, Mr. Aun warned that Trump\u2019s proposed 50% tariffs could reverse this favorable dynamic. Trade balance impacts are expected to dampen Brazil\u2019s economic growth, and uncertainties around the scope of the tariffs are likely to keep market sentiment cautious until there is more clarity after the August 1 deadline. \u201cThe natural response is to reduce positions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Morgan Stanley remains bullish on the real, citing the Brazilian Central Bank\u2019s hawkish stance as a key support factor. \u201cWe maintain our view that the window of opportunity for real appreciation remains open (likely through August), assuming no escalation in tariff rhetoric from the U.S.,\u201d analysts at the American bank wrote in a client report.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the interest rate markets, concerns over worsening Brazil-U.S. relations were evident early in the session, with rates rising despite improved inflation forecasts reflected in the Focus Report. However, fixed-income traders reported signs of foreign capital inflows, helping to push down long-term rates. This movement also tracked the decline in U.S. Treasuries, with 10-year yields falling from 4.423% to 4.384%. Brazil\u2019s DI rate for January 2029 fell from 13.64% to 13.59%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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On the stock exchange, Petrobras preferred shares rose 0.19%, while Vale shares jumped 2.73%. Market participants remain closely monitoring the flow of capital in the Brazilian equity market. In recent days, foreign investors have posted eight consecutive sessions of net outflows, while local institutional investors recorded six straight days of net inflows through July 17.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Last Thursday alone, foreign investors withdrew R$883.8 million, bringing the monthly outflow to R$5 billion. Meanwhile, institutional investors added R$886 million, though their monthly balance remains slightly negative at R$117.3 million.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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XP equity strategist Raphael Figueredo noted that foreign investors appear to be locking in profits and adjusting their positions, while domestic institutional investors are viewing the recent market correction as a buying opportunity. \u201cLocal investors are positioning themselves for potential rate cuts and improved second-quarter earnings from listed companies,\u201d Mr. Figueredo said.<\/p>\n

*By Maria Fernanda Salinet, Bruna Furlani,\u00a0Gabriel Caldeira\u00a0and\u00a0Gabriel Roca\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Short-term easing of tensions between Brazil and U.S. and globally weaker dollar boost real, Ibovespa, interest rates       07\/22\/2025\u00a0 After two weeks of negative performance driven by escalating trade tensions with the United States, Brazilian markets saw a reprieve on Monday. With the U.S. dollar weakening globally and no new retaliatory measures announced […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26270,26269],"class_list":["post-95024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-globally-weaker-dollar","tag-tensions-between-brazil-and-u-s"],"yoast_head":"\nLocal assets rebound in line with global markets - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/local-assets-rebound-in-line-with-global-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Local assets rebound in line with global markets - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Short-term easing of tensions between Brazil and U.S. and globally weaker dollar boost real, Ibovespa, interest rates       07\/22\/2025\u00a0 After two weeks of negative performance driven by escalating trade tensions with the United States, Brazilian markets saw a reprieve on Monday. 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