{"id":94865,"date":"2025-07-14T11:12:53","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T14:12:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=94865"},"modified":"2025-07-14T11:12:53","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T14:12:53","slug":"trump-tariffs-eu-law-disrupt-brazils-agricultural-geopolitics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/trump-tariffs-eu-law-disrupt-brazils-agricultural-geopolitics\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump tariffs, EU law disrupt Brazil\u2019s agricultural geopolitics"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Shifts in global trade threaten competitiveness and cloud sector planning<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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07\/14\/2025 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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As Brazil\u2019s agribusiness prepares to comply with the European Union\u2019s anti-deforestation law set to take effect in January 2026, the sector now faces a new challenge: a 50% tariff on exports to the U.S. Experts in foreign trade and diplomats with experience in trade negotiations warn that this \u201cperfect storm\u201d could make exports to two of Brazil\u2019s largest markets\u2014 the U.S. and the EU\u2014unviable or severely undermine their competitiveness.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to Ambassador Rubens Barbosa, president of the Institute of International Relations and Foreign Trade (Irice), trade tensions with the U.S. are more serious than the effects of the EU regulation and present a more immediate concern for Brazil.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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He notes that in the dispute with the U.S., agribusiness is not the most impacted sector of the Brazilian economy. Mr. Barbosa believes industries like aviation, aluminum, and steel, which export higher value-added and high-tech products, stand to lose more, while agribusiness remains a strong commodity exporter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThere will be consequences, but we don\u2019t yet know what tariff level Brazil will negotiate with the U.S. Even if it ends up above the previous 10%, we could still remain competitive in agricultural exports, but we\u2019ll need to negotiate,\u201d Mr. Barbosa told Valor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Still, there are products whose exportation could become unfeasible, such as beef, where the price per tonne could jump by about $3,000, according to projections from Agrifatto. Coffee, orange juice, and eggs are also expected to see shipments severely impacted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The U.S. remains one of Brazil\u2019s key trade partners, accounting for 12% of exports and 15.5% of total imports in 2024. \u201cIf Brazil escalates retaliation, as China did, it could backfire. We have more to lose than gain,\u201d warned Cicero Zanetti de Lima, a researcher at FGV Agro, the agribusiness studies center at Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Getulio Vargas.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Roughly 30% of Brazilian exports to the U.S.\u2014about $12.1 billion\u2014come from agribusiness. Conversely, agricultural imports from the U.S. represent just 2.5% of Brazil\u2019s total, primarily inputs. Mr. Lima explained that more expensive U.S. inputs could push up domestic food prices in Brazil.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cAnother serious issue is that, with the tariff in place, it will be nearly impossible to divert products like coffee and orange juice originally bound for the U.S. to other markets. This is a red flag,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Like the U.S., the EU is also one of Brazil\u2019s biggest buyers of coffee and orange juice. With rising protectionist signals, the European Commission has classified Brazil as a standard risk country under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which bans imports of products originating from both illegal and legally permitted deforestation under Brazilian law.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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There is widespread uncertainty about the required documentation and how the law will be enforced. Rubens Ricupero, a diplomat and former finance minister, highlighted that Brazil\u2019s agribusiness is vulnerable on deforestation issues. He argued this should be an opportunity to crack down on illegal deforesters and reduce Brazil\u2019s risk classification under the EU law. \u201cThe sector itself should take the lead in showing it is serious about this issue,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Because Brazil was rated as a standard risk country under the EUDR, its products are likely to be deprioritized in favor of those from lower-risk suppliers, warned Agroicone managing partner Rodrigo Lima.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cImporters will naturally prefer sourcing from countries with the lowest possible risk to avoid EU fines,\u201d he said. \u201cEven if Brazilian coffee is excellent, buyers may opt for lower-risk suppliers,\u201d he added. Vietnam, for example, is a major coffee supplier classified as low risk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Marcos Matos, general director of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafe), said coffee industry representatives traveled to the EU in May after the EUDR risk classification was announced, lobbying for risk to be assessed by region rather than nationally. \u201cWe see there is room to educate buyers about Brazilian coffee and the country\u2019s regional diversity,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the beef supply chain, competitors like Uruguay have been classified as low risk, while Brazil\u2019s standard risk rating is seen as \u201cunfair\u201d by Caio Penido, president of the Mato Grosso Institute of Beef (Imac), who recently visited Brussels to discuss the issue.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Nayara Figueiredo\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shifts in global trade threaten competitiveness and cloud sector planning       07\/14\/2025 As Brazil\u2019s agribusiness prepares to comply with the European Union\u2019s anti-deforestation law set to take effect in January 2026, the sector now faces a new challenge: a 50% tariff on exports to the U.S. Experts in foreign trade and diplomats with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26239,26238,26145],"class_list":["post-94865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-disrupt-brazils-agricultural-geopolitics","tag-eu-law","tag-trump-tariffs"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump tariffs, EU law disrupt Brazil\u2019s agricultural geopolitics - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/trump-tariffs-eu-law-disrupt-brazils-agricultural-geopolitics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump tariffs, EU law disrupt Brazil\u2019s agricultural geopolitics - 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