{"id":94499,"date":"2025-06-09T14:24:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-09T17:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=94499"},"modified":"2025-06-09T14:24:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-09T17:24:00","slug":"tax-reform-already-reshapes-logistics-strategies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/tax-reform-already-reshapes-logistics-strategies\/","title":{"rendered":"Tax reform already reshapes logistics strategies"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Companies prepare for end of tax incentives in 2033; impact on new projects already visible<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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06\/09\/2025\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Brazil\u2019s tax reform is beginning to influence corporate logistics strategies for new investments. The prospect of ending tax incentives and changing the point of tax collection starting in 2033 is already dampening interest in new projects in states that currently attract companies through generous fiscal benefits, according to business executives and consultants involved in the transition to the new model.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Among the states potentially affected, from the private sector\u2019s perspective, are Santa Catarina, known for its import-related incentives; Goi\u00e1s, which supports the pharmaceutical industry; Esp\u00edrito Santo, which also favors imports and has attracted sectors like automotive and retail; and Minas Gerais, home to one of the most emblematic cases of tax incentives: the city of Extrema.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In Extrema, logistics operators say demand for existing warehouses remains strong, but appetite for new developments is waning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to S\u00e9rgio Fischer, CEO of Log CP, a developer and manager of logistics and industrial warehouses, clients have said that rental prices in Extrema were a \u201cnon-issue\u201d and could be up to three times higher due to the significant cost reduction from tax incentives. Log CP previously owned a warehouse in Extrema but sold it and has no plans to return. \u201cIt\u2019s a city with fewer than 60,000 residents and nearly the same amount of warehouse space as Cajamar (S\u00e3o Paulo), which serves Brazil\u2019s largest city,\u201d Mr. Fischer said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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On the other hand, demand is rising for warehouses closer to major consumer hubs such as S\u00e3o Paulo and Recife\u2014a key logistics center for the Northeast\u2014executives report.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Logistics operator Multilog, which has a R$900 million investment plan over the next three years, has decided to allocate more than half of that amount to S\u00e3o Paulo, largely due to the tax overhaul. \u201cWe\u2019ve been getting many inquiries from clients who are already looking ahead to 2033. From that point forward, inventory will need to be closer to consumers. A natural realignment will take place,\u201d said CEO Djalma Vilela.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Pedro Moreira, president of ABRALOG (Brazilian Logistics Association), said the reform is already affecting the price per square meter of fulfillment centers, which is rising around S\u00e3o Paulo and Recife. The Manaus Free Trade Zone, which will retain its incentives, is also drawing increased interest from companies, he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Indeed, prices are climbing in S\u00e3o Paulo, according to data from Colliers International. In Guarulhos, the average price per square meter for logistics projects reached R$37.80 in the first quarter of this year, a 16.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In Cajamar, prices rose 8.5%, to R$31.38. Even in Extrema, prices increased to R$28.65\u2014a 5.3% rise year over year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to analysts and executives, the lack of a sharp correction reflects market resilience. Mr. Fischer pointed out that cities that grew thanks to tax incentives won\u2019t become \u201cghost towns\u201d overnight, as the market will adjust based on demand-driven pricing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Moreover, a lengthy transition period lies ahead before incentives are phased out, noted Maur\u00edcio Lima, partner at logistics consultancy Ilos. \u201cNo company will relocate while it can still enjoy the benefit.\u201d He emphasized that current impacts are limited to new projects still in the planning stages.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Under the new rules, the transition away from the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS), the main instrument used by states, won\u2019t begin until 2029 and will run through the end of 2032, noted Douglas Mota, a tax partner at Demarest. During this period, a compensation fund will reimburse companies for lost incentives.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr. Mota added that the reform\u2019s impact comes not only from the loss of tax breaks, but also from the shift in the tax collection model\u2014from the point of production or storage to the point of consumption. \u201cThey\u2019ve tightened the screws on both ends.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Long-term lease contracts may help smooth the transition. Mariana Hanania, director of market research at consultancy Newmark, noted that Extrema\u2019s growth was driven largely by BTS (build-to-suit) contracts tailored to specific tenants. \u201cThese are long-term contracts with tenant guarantees,\u201d she said, adding that new developments in those areas may now be limited.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Simone Santos, partner at consultancy Binswanger SDS, said the long timeline before the reform takes full effect still makes these regions attractive. \u201cWe\u2019re still seeing major leases,\u201d she noted, citing the announcement in late May of a fully pre-leased 40,000 square meters warehouse by Fulwood in Extrema.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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These locations also offer other advantages, such as strong logistics infrastructure, skilled labor, established industrial ecosystems, and the local economy. Santa Catarina, for example, is expected to see limited impact, according to two executives with operations in the state.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Gustavo Serr\u00e3o, CEO of Esp\u00edrito Santo\u2019s port authority Vports, acknowledged that the reform presents challenges for the state but said the government is investing in greater efficiency, and existing infrastructure supports business retention. \u201cThere\u2019s an exit barrier. Incentives helped the state build a robust infrastructure, and the integrated supply chain is resilient,\u201d he said. \u201cThe challenge now is to use the transition to boost productivity.\u201d He also cited potential financial incentives from state banks to help attract investment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The impact of the changes will vary across sectors. The most affected will likely be those in which tax considerations weighed heavily in project decisions; typically high-value, lightweight products like pharmaceuticals and electronics, Mr. Lima said. \u201cHeavier products, like large appliances, already leaned more on logistics convenience than tax advantages.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Some e-commerce firms and import-heavy sectors that traditionally benefited from incentives will also need to rethink their strategies, said Vilson Silva, CFO at ID Logistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIn 2033, the impact will be significant. From a logistics standpoint, this will be an improvement. Today, there are some irrational practices, like a client who produces in S\u00e3o Paulo, serves customers in S\u00e3o Paulo, but ships inventory to Goi\u00e1s for storage, only to bring it back,\u201d Mr. Silva said.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Ta\u00eds Hirata\u00a0and\u00a0Ana Luiza Tieghi\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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