{"id":94412,"date":"2025-06-02T11:36:11","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T14:36:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=94412"},"modified":"2025-06-02T11:59:13","modified_gmt":"2025-06-02T14:59:13","slug":"94412","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/94412\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump tariffs stall wood pulp price recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Prices in top buyer China may have fallen as much as 20% since the mid-April peak<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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06\/02\/2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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The heightened uncertainty triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s new tariffs has led to a slowdown in pulp demand, particularly in the United States and China. The measures also brought a halt to the upward price cycle that had been building since the start of the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to the Foex index from Fastmarkets, the net price of bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHKP) in China dropped by $77.9 over the past month, with the most recent weekly quote at $517.47 per tonne. Market sources report some resales taking place below $500 per tonne\u2014though those levels have yet to be reflected in official indexes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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If confirmed, these prices would represent a decline of more than 20% from the April peak, amounting to a drop of approximately $120 per tonne.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Suzano\u2014the world\u2019s largest producer of BHKP\u2014had been implementing monthly increases of $20 for Asian markets since the beginning of the year, capitalizing on stronger-than-expected momentum.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to the company, price adjustments in January, February, and March were implemented successfully. However, instability caused by the new tariffs derailed April negotiations, which failed to move forward. In other words, beyond halting the price rally, the uncertainty-driven downturn effectively wiped out Suzano\u2019s gains from the first quarter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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During a conference call, Leonardo Grimaldi, Suzano\u2019s executive vice president for pulp sales and logistics, said the current price level is \u201cunsustainable\u201d and expressed hope for a normalization of market negotiations in May.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Fastmarkets\u2019 outlook calls for weaker prices in the months ahead, with a possible recovery by year-end. \u201cIf global demand for pulp\u2014particularly in China\u2014continues to grow, that could support a price rebound later this year,\u201d said Rafael Barisauskas, Latin America economist at the consultancy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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While the tariffs aren\u2019t the sole cause of the downturn, they have certainly added another layer of complexity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Since last year, the supply-demand dynamics in the pulp market have been shifting. Some Chinese producers have resumed operations, and new capacity has come online\u2014such as Suzano\u2019s Cerrado Project. The new facility began the year running at full capacity, producing 2.55 million tonnes annually, ahead of the Brazilian company\u2019s own projections.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cUncertainty about demand in Asia and the U.S. has led buyers to adopt \u2018just-in-time\u2019 purchasing strategies, avoiding inventory buildup throughout the supply chain, which has restrained pulp consumption,\u201d Mr. Barisauskas explained.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Data from the Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC) for April, cited in a BTG Pactual report, reflect this trend. According to the council, inventory days rose to 44 (47 days for hardwood pulp and 41 for softwood), and the system operating rate stood at 80%, which the bank classified as \u201cunderutilized.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Despite the volatile environment, total pulp shipments rose 2% year-over-year in April, driven by a 15% increase in exports to China. In Latin America, the figure dropped 9%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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After reporting first-quarter results, Suzano CEO Beto Abreu stated that the company had not yet seen changes in demand but remained cautious about market dynamics in the coming months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In mid-May, during a conversation with reporters, Marcos Assump\u00e7\u00e3o\u2014Suzano\u2019s executive vice president of finance and investor relations\u2014was asked whether the company planned to reduce production to help balance supply and demand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to Mr. Assump\u00e7\u00e3o, Suzano has identified operations with higher production costs but does not intend to cut output. \u201cWhat we\u2019ve said is that we will sell everything we produce,\u201d he affirmed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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One concern for the industry is whether Chinese pulp originally intended for the U.S. might be redirected to other markets. \u201cChina will likely face some difficulty exporting short-fiber pulp to the U.S. The big question is whether Chinese buyers will absorb the volume or send it elsewhere,\u201d said Klabin CEO Cristiano Teixeira during a conference call. The company\u2019s outlook for demand in this segment over the coming months is negative.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the case of softwood pulp (pine), Mr. Teixeira sees a more favorable dynamic, as most of China\u2019s imports in this category come from the U.S. \u201cAny global softwood pulp producer becomes a potential supplier to Chinese buyers, and Brazil could benefit,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Despite the recent impact, it\u2019s too early to determine whether these shifts signal lasting changes for the industry, said Ambassador Jos\u00e9 Carlos da Fonseca, president of the Brazilian Paper Packaging Association (Empapel) and international relations director at the Brazilian Tree Industry (Ib\u00e1).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Earlier this month, the U.S. and China agreed to lower reciprocal tariffs from 125% to 10% for 90 days while negotiations continue. \u201cRight now, we\u2019re at the peak of this cycle, but the world won\u2019t be the same\u2014even if this passes,\u201d Mr. Fonseca said.<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Helena Benfica\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Source Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prices in top buyer China may have fallen as much as 20% since the mid-April peak   06\/02\/2025 The heightened uncertainty triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s new tariffs has led to a slowdown in pulp demand, particularly in the United States and China. 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