{"id":94124,"date":"2025-05-09T10:49:32","date_gmt":"2025-05-09T13:49:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=94124"},"modified":"2025-05-09T10:49:32","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T13:49:32","slug":"petrobras-expected-to-post-higher-q1-profit-on-stronger-output","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/petrobras-expected-to-post-higher-q1-profit-on-stronger-output\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrobras expected to post higher Q1 profit on stronger output"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Analysts from BTG, UBS BB, and Ativa project net income of R$34.9bn from revenue of R$130bn<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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05\/09\/2025\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Higher oil and gas production in the first quarter is expected to drive a year-on-year increase in Petrobras\u2019s earnings, according to estimates gathered by Valor from three banks and brokerages. On average, analysts forecast a net profit of R$34.9 billion, net revenue of R$130 billion, and EBITDA of R$64.3 billion. If confirmed, those figures would represent increases of 47.25% in profit, 10.47% in revenue, and 7.16% in EBITDA compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The projections reviewed by Valor come from Ativa Investimentos, BTG Pactual, and UBS BB. Forecasts for net income ranged from R$24.7 billion (Ativa) to R$41.3 billion (BTG), while revenue projections spanned from R$121.2 billion (Ativa) to R$137.3 billion (BTG). EBITDA estimates ranged from R$60.7 billion (Ativa) to R$67.2 billion (BTG).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the first quarter, the state-controlled oil company reported production of 2.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 5.4% from the first quarter of 2024.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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BTG Pactual analysts Luiz Carvalho, Pedro Soares, and Henrique P\u00e9rez noted that, following the market\u2019s negative reaction in the fourth quarter\u2014mainly due to higher capital expenditures\u2014investors remain focused on how spending is evolving. Rising capex, they cautioned, could limit future dividend payouts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to BTG, lower investment levels combined with higher production should be key to a recovery in Petrobras\u2019s share price. The analysts also said the company is likely to benefit from better refining margins and lower operating costs due to improved efficiency and fewer maintenance shutdowns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A separate report from UBS BB, authored by Matheus Enfeldt, Tasso Vasconcellos, and Victor Modanese, emphasized that \u201cthe big question for the quarter is capex.\u201d The report noted that the key issue is how capital spending will influence dividend expectations, and flagged a particular risk in Q1 results due to the rollover effect of investments made in the fourth quarter of 2024.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Santander analysts Rodrigo Almeida and Eduardo Muniz said they expect EBITDA growth to be driven by higher output, lower lifting costs, and stronger refining margins. However, they foresee weaker results in the gas and power segment, primarily due to a $283 million charge tied to a legal settlement with EIG Energy. In March, Petrobras agreed to pay $283 million\u2014without admitting fault\u2014to settle a lawsuit filed by the U.S. firm, which claimed losses linked to its investment in the FIP Sondas fund managed by Sete Brasil. Sete Brasil filed for bankruptcy after Petrobras canceled contracts for exploration rigs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Santander\u2019s estimates, provided in U.S. dollars, project first-quarter net income of $5.393 billion, up 12% from a year earlier. The bank expects net revenue of $20.621 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $11.359 billion\u2014down 13% and 9%, respectively, compared to the first quarter of 2024.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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*By Rafael Rosas, Valor\u00a0\u2014 Rio de Janeiro<\/div>\n
Source: Valor International<\/div>\n
https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com<\/div>\n
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