{"id":94083,"date":"2025-05-06T11:39:17","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T14:39:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=94083"},"modified":"2025-05-06T11:39:17","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T14:39:17","slug":"selic-expectations-dip-slightly-challenging-copoms-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/selic-expectations-dip-slightly-challenging-copoms-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Selic expectations dip slightly, challenging COPOM\u2019s strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"content--header\">\n<div class=\"row content-head featured \">\n<div class=\"medium-centered subtitle\">\n<h6 class=\"content-head__subtitle\" style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Focus survey may signal broader revisions to market outlook on monetary tightening<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__signa-share\">\n<div class=\"content__signature\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__text\">\n<div class=\"content-publication-data__from\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"content-publication-data__updated\">05\/06\/2025\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content__share-bar-container\">\n<div class=\"content__share-bar\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row medium-uncollapsed content-top-image\" data-block-type=\"featured-image\" data-block-id=\"0\">\n<div class=\"column medium-centered medium-22 large-20 desktop \">\n<figure class=\"content-featured-figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"content-featured-image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/jpdmxsN1NQw0H8THVJ2ihdiqmcw=\/0x0:2000x1333\/888x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/2\/S\/pRFRwBSk2vAGGgOuNxhQ\/closeup-economist-using-calculator-while-going-through-bills-taxes-office.jpg\" alt=\"Analysts are starting to review forecasts, which could translate into a broader shift in the market's outlook\" width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" \/><figcaption class=\"content-featured-caption\"><em>Analysts are starting to review forecasts, which could translate into a broader shift in the market&#8217;s outlook \u2014 Photo: Freepik<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div id=\"mc-article-body\" class=\"mc-article-body \">\n<article>\n<div class=\"no-paywall\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles active-capital-letter\" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"31\" data-block-id=\"1\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container theme-color-primary-first-letter\" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Economists surveyed in the Central Bank\u2019s weekly Focus report now expect interest rates to end the year slightly lower\u2014suggesting both a milder tightening cycle and an earlier start to rate cuts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wall protected-content\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"28\" data-block-id=\"2\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">According to data released Monday by the Central Bank, the median forecast for the Selic rate at the end of 2025 fell from 15% to 14.75% per year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"55\" data-block-id=\"3\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">While the revision is minor and unlikely to significantly impact the Central Bank\u2019s inflation projections at this week\u2019s monetary policy committee (COPOM) meeting, it could mark the beginning of a broader reassessment of the expected intensity of monetary tightening\u2014a shift that may complicate the committee\u2019s goal of gradually bringing inflation back to its 3% target.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"26\" data-block-id=\"4\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Two main factors drove the lowered Selic projection. First, fewer economists now expect the benchmark rate\u2014currently at 14.25%\u2014to peak at 15% or more during this cycle.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"37\" data-block-id=\"5\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The median forecast points to a 0.5 percentage point hike at this week\u2019s Copom meeting, followed by a smaller 0.25 point increase in June. But a growing number of analysts believe the tightening will end at 14.75%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"52\" data-block-id=\"6\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">This is reflected in the average forecast for the June meeting, which dipped from 15.06% to 14.91%. Broadly, about one-third of analysts now believe the cycle will stop short of the 15% mark. A separate survey by Valor indicates that just under half of respondents expect the Selic to remain below 15%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"7\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">A second Central Bank report\u2014tracking the distribution of inflation expectations\u2014also points to fading expectations of a more aggressive rate hike cycle. The share of analysts forecasting rates above 15% in 2025 dropped from 36.7% in March to 16.4% in April.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"23\" data-block-id=\"8\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The second factor weighing on year-end Selic forecasts is a growing belief that rate cuts might begin before the end of the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"39\" data-block-id=\"9\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">According to the median projection, the Selic would hold steady at 15% through the COPOM meetings in July, September, and November\u2014then fall by 0.25 percentage point in December. This was the main new element in this week\u2019s Focus report.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"38\" data-block-id=\"10\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Market expectations for the year-end Selic are significant because they feed into the Central Bank\u2019s inflation forecasting models. Although the updated forecasts show lower rates than those used in the last Copom meeting, the difference is not dramatic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"47\" data-block-id=\"11\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Previously, economists expected the Central Bank to begin easing in January 2026, starting with a 0.25 percentage point cut, followed by another of the same size. The Focus survey now anticipates one 0.25-point cut in December, but leaves the pace of easing for 2026 unchanged\u2014still notably cautious.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"32\" data-block-id=\"12\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The Focus distribution map supports this trend. The share of analysts projecting year-end Selic rates of 14.25% or lower rose from 5.7% in February to 9.4% in March and 14.3% in April.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"21\" data-block-id=\"13\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">This downward shift in rate expectations doesn\u2019t materially change the outlook for real interest rates, which are expected to remain tight.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"40\" data-block-id=\"14\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The average Selic rate across the eight COPOM meetings in 2026 is projected at 13.31%, compared to an expected inflation rate of 4.51%. For December 2026, the Selic is forecast at 12%, versus an inflation estimate of 4% for 2027.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"45\" data-block-id=\"15\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">If inflation expectations remain stable, this implies a real interest rate between 8% and 9% through the end of 2026\u2014a restrictive level consistent with efforts to bring inflation back to target. The neutral real rate is estimated between 5% and 7%, depending on analysts\u2019 outlook.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"29\" data-block-id=\"16\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Since the March meeting, COPOM has emphasized that maintaining a sufficiently tight rate for long enough is just as important as reaching that restrictive level in the first place.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"21\" data-block-id=\"17\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">To enforce this stance, the Central Bank will need to counteract the market\u2019s natural tendency to price in early rate cuts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div data-track-category=\"multicontent\" data-track-action=\"ultimo chunk conteudo\" data-track-noninteraction=\"false\" data-track-scroll=\"view\">\n<div class=\"mc-column content-text active-extra-styles \" data-block-type=\"unstyled\" data-block-weight=\"49\" data-block-id=\"18\">\n<p class=\" content-text__container \" data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">The Focus survey is starting to reflect that tension, subtly adjusting expectations. While this week\u2019s dip in Selic projections may not shift the broader monetary picture, it could mark the beginning of a trend that\u2014if it gains momentum\u2014may complicate the Central Bank\u2019s efforts to hold the line on inflation.<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">*By\u00a0Alex Ribeiro, Valor\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">Source: Valor Inernational<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<p data-track-category=\"Link no Texto\" data-track-links=\"\" data-mrf-recirculation=\"Article links\">\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Focus survey may signal broader revisions to market outlook on monetary tightening &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 05\/06\/2025 Analysts are starting to review forecasts, which could translate into a broader shift in the market&#8217;s outlook \u2014 Photo: Freepik Economists surveyed in the Central Bank\u2019s weekly Focus report now expect interest rates to end the year slightly lower\u2014suggesting [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[21417,26094],"class_list":["post-94083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-monetary-tightening","tag-selic-expectations-dip-slightly"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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