{"id":94078,"date":"2025-05-06T11:30:51","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T14:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=94078"},"modified":"2025-05-06T11:31:39","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T14:31:39","slug":"trade-war-also-creates-opportunities-for-brazil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/trade-war-also-creates-opportunities-for-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade war also creates opportunities for Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Economists argue that while U.S. protectionism adds volatility to global trade, it also opens doors for some emerging markets<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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05\/06\/2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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The protectionist measures adopted by U.S. President Donald Trump are injecting instability into global trade, but they may also create new business opportunities for Brazil and other emerging markets. That\u2019s the assessment of Maria Silvia Bastos Marques, former president of Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) and currently Secretary for Major Projects in the state of Rio de Janeiro, and Jos\u00e9 M\u00e1rcio Camargo, chief economist at Genial Investimentos.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The two experts spoke on Monday (5) at a business forum hosted by the Rio de Janeiro Commercial Association (ACRJ), where they discussed the shifting global economic landscape under Mr. Trump\u2019s second term in office. Since taking office in January, the U.S. president has imposed tariffs on numerous countries\u2014including key allies such as Canada and Mexico\u2014initiated a trade war with China, and undermined multilateral cooperation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to Ms. Marques, one certainty amid the current uncertainty is that \u201cwe\u2019re heading into a period of major turbulence and a world quite different from the one we\u2019ve become used to.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIt feels like we\u2019re living through a reversal of what happened after World War II,\u201d she said. In the postwar era, the U.S. was one of the main proponents of strengthening multilateral ties\u2014an approach now being openly challenged by Mr. Trump.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ms. Marques views the Trump administration\u2019s trade stance as part of a broader power struggle with China: \u201cThere\u2019s a contest between the U.S. and China for global supremacy\u2014over who leads in innovation, who calls the shots, and who holds the greatest military power.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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However, she believes the U.S. is coming out on the losing end: \u201cThe way this policy is being implemented\u2014chaotically and without coordination\u2014has major consequences not only for the U.S. but for the world,\u201d she said. \u201cThe expectation is that the U.S. will face higher inflation and slower economic activity as a result of these trade barriers.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ms. Marques also noted that \u201cthe U.S. is facing a supply shock, while China is dealing with a demand shock. It\u2019s always easier to stimulate demand than to increase supply.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In her view, the current scenario presents opportunities for Brazil and other emerging markets\u2014particularly if they deepen their international ties and seek out new trading partners. One such possibility, she suggested, is that the volatility caused by the trade war could accelerate negotiations on a long-pending trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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She also pointed to the potential benefits of a weaker U.S. dollar. \u201cA depreciation of the dollar could help ease inflation in Brazil and create room for interest rate cuts\u2014assuming there are no new credit or fiscal stimulus measures to boost demand,\u201d she said. \u201cImportant opportunities could arise for Brazil, but only if we do our homework.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr. Camargo, meanwhile, warned that the U.S.\u2019s reindustrialization efforts could end up isolating its economy. \u201cThe American economy is likely to slow under the weight of these tariffs,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s really very difficult to reindustrialize an economy by using tariff controls.\u201d<\/p>\n

*By\u00a0Camila Zarur\u00a0\u00a0\u2014 Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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