{"id":94053,"date":"2025-05-05T11:58:37","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T14:58:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=94053"},"modified":"2025-05-05T11:58:37","modified_gmt":"2025-05-05T14:58:37","slug":"mercosur-eu-deal-faces-uphill-battle-despite-tariff-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/mercosur-eu-deal-faces-uphill-battle-despite-tariff-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Mercosur-EU deal faces uphill battle despite tariff war"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Brazilian diplomats say Trump\u2019s trade moves ease the path, but convincing France, Poland, and Italy may require Lula\u2019s personal involvement<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Even as the global trade tensions triggered by the United States create a more favorable climate for ratifying the Mercosur-EU trade deal, the coming months will demand intense diplomatic efforts to get it across the finish line. Brazilian officials involved in the negotiations expect a challenging period ahead, marked by possible attempts from France, Poland, and Italy to block the agreement. A coordinated campaign against the deal is also anticipated this summer, along with potential last-minute resistance in the European Parliament. Still, the goal is to secure final approval before the end of the year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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President Lula is expected to step in once again to help steer the process to completion. There is no fixed timetable for ratification, but Brazilian authorities believe Mr. Lula\u2019s direct involvement will be key.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201c[U.S. President Donald] Trump is actually helping as Europe doesn\u2019t have many alternatives but to strengthen existing or pending agreements,\u201d said Jorge Viana, head of ApexBrasil, the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, which is linked to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr. Viana recently joined other officials and business leaders on a diplomatic tour through Portugal, Poland, and Belgium. The final stop, Brussels, also serves as the political heart of the European Union.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Negotiated since 1999, the agreement was announced at the end of 2024 by Mercosur heads of state and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Once implemented, the deal will establish a free trade area encompassing 700 million people, with a combined GDP of $22 trillion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Amid a rising tide of protectionism fueled by Mr. Trump\u2019s tariff escalation, the deal has taken on greater urgency. In April, citing the impact of U.S. trade policy, the World Trade Organization downgraded its forecast for global trade flows in 2025, from a 2.7% increase to a 0.2% contraction. Officials from both the EU and Mercosur have since stepped up public messaging about the agreement\u2019s strategic and economic importance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But several steps remain before the deal takes effect. The current text is being translated into the EU\u2019s 23 official languages, along with specific versions in Portuguese and Spanish for Mercosur.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The next phase involves approval by 65% of the European Council, which comprises heads of state. These votes must represent at least 55% of the EU population. The math is considered \u201ccomplex\u201d and \u201cdynamic,\u201d with no fixed threshold\u2014Brazilian negotiators even use a smartphone app to monitor daily shifts in the vote count. An alignment among France, Poland, and Italy alone would be enough to block the agreement. France and Poland have repeatedly voiced strong public opposition, while Italy\u2019s stance is viewed as ambiguous.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Securing neutrality from countries like Belgium is already seen as a diplomatic win by Brazilian officials.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The final hurdle will be a simple majority vote in the European Parliament, based on the number of members present during the session. That stage is expected to be the most difficult, as parliamentarians are often more susceptible to lobbying pressure than heads of state.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cWe\u2019ll need a major effort to win public opinion,\u201d said Aloysio Nunes, former foreign minister and current head of strategic affairs for ApexBrasil in Europe.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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According to Brazilian officials, President Lula\u2019s personal involvement will be crucial in the final stages. Mr. Viana is among those who argue that the \u201crevival of presidential diplomacy\u201d since Mr. Lula returned to office in 2023 has strengthened Brazil\u2019s global standing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThe president\u2019s engagement will be decisive in turning the tide,\u201d said Mr. Viana, an ally of Mr. Lula who previously served two terms as governor of Acre and one as senator, all with the Workers\u2019 Party (PT).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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One potential boost to Brazil\u2019s case came in May with the expected formal recognition by the World Organization for Animal Health that Brazil is free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination\u2014a long-standing concern for European agricultural interests.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Brazil\u2019s ambassador to the EU, Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva, predicts that the agreement will be \u201cquietly approved.\u201d \u201cNo one wants the [political] fallout,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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While optimistic, Mr. Costa e Silva warned that by the end of the European summer, \u201cevery opponent\u201d of the deal, particularly Europe\u2019s farm lobby and NGOs, will be mounting a \u201crelentless campaign,\u201d requiring a \u201cgrueling\u201d response from Brazil. \u201cIt will be intense,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In Brazil, approval is expected to proceed with fewer obstacles. Once passed by Brazil\u2019s National Congress and sanctioned, the changes will immediately take effect for the country\u2019s economy, without needing ratification from other Mercosur members.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThis global conflict ends up creating opportunities and negotiation windows that become vital for countries trying to protect themselves,\u201d said Senator Nelsinho Trad, chair of the Senate\u2019s Foreign Relations and National Defense Committee. \u201cIt\u2019s not a matter of if\u2014we have to get it done.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The agreement is expected to be reviewed by the committees on Foreign Relations and National Defense, Constitution and Justice, and Economic Affairs, before going to the floor of both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The reporter\u2019s travel costs were covered by ApexBrasil.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

*By Estev\u00e3o Taiar\u00a0\u2014 Brussels<\/p>\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n

https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/<\/p>\n

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