{"id":93685,"date":"2025-04-10T22:21:23","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T01:21:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=93685"},"modified":"2025-04-10T22:21:26","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T01:21:26","slug":"analysts-fear-brazil-could-lose-ground-in-u-s-trade-talks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/analysts-fear-brazil-could-lose-ground-in-u-s-trade-talks\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts fear Brazil could lose ground in U.S. trade talks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Projections point to closer ties with China, potential delays in investment<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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04\/10\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trump administration\u2019s surprise decision to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports<\/a> has split Brazilian analysts over the potential fallout for Brazil\u2019s economy. Experts interviewed by Valor<\/strong> expect continued headwinds for sectors like steel and aluminum\u2014particularly if the 25% tariffs remain in place, well above the general 10% rate\u2014while also anticipating a further deepening of Brazil\u2019s commercial ties with China. At the same time, there are concerns that Brazilian products could lose ground to competitors in the U.S. market and that investment decisions may be postponed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These measures add to global uncertainty and insecurity, said Welber Barral, partner at consultancy BMJ and former secretary of foreign trade. They\u2019re likely to trigger a wave of negotiations with countries and blocs most affected by the U.S. trade policy. Mr. Barral warned that the move could open new markets for U.S. agricultural goods, posing risks to Brazil\u2019s export sector. He believes blocs hit hardest by the new tariffs\u2014such as the European Union, Japan, and South Korea\u2014will likely receive priority in trade talks with Washington. Brazil, he says, could end up \u201cat the back of the line\u201d in negotiations for the 10% base tariff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn exchange for lower tariffs, the EU will offer the U.S. access to its agricultural market, which would be bad news for Brazil. Japan is expected to do the same, and South Korea may seek to negotiate around meat exports,\u201d Mr. Barral added. According to Mr. Barral, the U.S. must secure new buyers for its agricultural output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the 25% sector-specific tariffs\u2014which in Brazil\u2019s case target steel and aluminum\u2014remain, the executive believes the Trump administration will effectively be blending trade policy with commercial defense issues, heightening uncertainty. The 125% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles is also likely to raise concerns among U.S. Midwest farmers, who rely heavily on Chinese demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sergio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados, sees a natural shift ahead: stronger Brazil-China relations. \u201cIf there was still any doubt that Trump would take a hard line against China, there\u2019s none now,\u201d he said. \u201cThis tariff will likely be reduced in time, but the broader consequence will be a faster decoupling between the U.S. and Chinese markets\u2014and a growing alignment between Brazil and China.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade between Brazil and China has surged in recent years and now amounts to twice the total volume of trade between Brazil and the U.S., Mr. Vale noted. Currently, trade between Brazil and China totals $160 billion, compared to $80 billion with the United States. \u201cWithin five years, Brazil-China trade could reach $200 billion\u2014nearly three times the volume with the U.S., which may fall to $70 billion,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, Mr. Vale cautions that the short-term outlook remains volatile. \u201cEven if Trump backtracks and returns to the negotiating table, this episode sends a clear message: the U.S. is no longer seen as the reliable trade partner it once was. And it\u2019s making poor decisions on trade,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Luis Ot\u00e1vio Leal, chief economist at G5 Partners, sees a potential short-term window of opportunity during the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs. \u201cIf all tariffs are in fact reduced to 10%\u2014including those already levied on aluminum and steel\u2014it could give U.S. companies a chance to rebuild inventories in preparation for a potential tariff hike once the suspension ends,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, forecasting Brazil\u2019s gains or losses is far from straightforward, said Carla Beni, economist and professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation. \u201cCompanies need stability to make investment decisions and sign long-term contracts,\u201d she said, adding that the prevailing uncertainty is likely to delay capital allocation\u2014a negative outcome for all involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*By\u00a0Marta Watanabe,\u00a0Mars\u00edlea Gombata,\u00a0Michael Esquer\u00a0and\u00a0Alex Jorge Braga\u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edli<\/strong>a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Projections point to closer ties with China, potential delays in investment 04\/10\/2025 The Trump administration\u2019s surprise decision to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports has split Brazilian analysts over the potential fallout for Brazil\u2019s economy. Experts interviewed by Valor expect continued headwinds for sectors like steel and aluminum\u2014particularly if the 25% tariffs remain in place, well above the general […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[26023,26022],"class_list":["post-93685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-closer-ties-with-china","tag-u-s-trade-talks"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalysts fear Brazil could lose ground in U.S. trade talks - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/analysts-fear-brazil-could-lose-ground-in-u-s-trade-talks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analysts fear Brazil could lose ground in U.S. trade talks - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Projections point to closer ties with China, potential delays in investment 04\/10\/2025 The Trump administration\u2019s surprise decision to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports has split Brazilian analysts over the potential fallout for Brazil\u2019s economy. 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