{"id":93415,"date":"2025-03-25T12:16:20","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T15:16:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=93415"},"modified":"2025-03-25T12:16:22","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T15:16:22","slug":"rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Minutes of last meeting show Monetary Policy Committee expects pass-through on industrialized goods of dollar\u2019s recent appreciation against Brazilian real<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

03\/25\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) show Central Bank officials expects the recent appreciation of the dollar against the real to affect industrial prices in the coming months, and tat higher food prices could contaminate other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRegarding industrialized goods, the recent exchange rate movement has pressured prices and margins, already reflected in wholesale price increases, suggesting further pass-through to retail prices in the coming months,\u201d the document states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COPOM also noted that \u201cfood prices remain elevated and are likely to spread to other prices in the medium term due to significant inertial mechanisms within the Brazilian economy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of service prices, the committee observed that they exhibit greater inertia, staying above the level compatible with meeting the target, and \u201caccelerated in the most recent observations within a context of a positive gap.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the short-term inflation outlook remains challenging, according to the committee. \u201cIt was highlighted in the short-term analysis that, if the reference scenario projections materialize, the twelve-month accumulated inflation will remain above the upper limit of the target tolerance range for six consecutive months, starting from January this year,\u201d the minutes read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COPOM reiterated that, \u201cwith the June inflation this year, it would constitute a failure to meet the target under the new framework of the target regime.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, COPOM raised the benchmark interest rates to 14.25% from 13.25% per annum and indicated a forthcoming increase of a smaller magnitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the minutes, COPOM emphasized its decision to communicate three key points during last week\u2019s meeting: that the monetary tightening cycle is not yet over, that the next increase would be of a smaller magnitude, and to indicate only the direction of the next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Committee, in its communication, chose to combine three signals regarding the conduct of monetary policy, should the expected scenario be confirmed,\u201d the minutes state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFirstly, it judged that, given the adverse scenario for inflation dynamics, it was appropriate to indicate that the cycle is not over,\u201d it continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSecondly, due to the inherent lags in the ongoing monetary cycle, the Committee also deemed it appropriate to communicate that the next move would be of a smaller magnitude.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, it states that \u201cfurthermore, given the high uncertainty, it opted to indicate only the direction of the next move.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the minutes, COPOM also highlighted that a scenario of unanchored expectations for longer terms makes the inflation convergence scenario more challenging, which \u201crequires greater monetary restraint for a longer period than would have been appropriate otherwise.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the minutes, \u201cthe inflation convergence scenario becomes more challenging with unanchored expectations for longer terms and requires greater monetary restraint for a longer period than would have been appropriate otherwise.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the document, the committee also noted that inflation expectations measured by different instruments and collected from various groups of agents continued to rise \u201cacross all terms\u201d and indicate additional unanchoring. According to the committee, this scenario makes the inflation outlook \u201cmore adverse.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe unanchoring of inflation expectations is a common concern among all committee members and must be addressed. It was emphasized that environments with unanchored expectations increase the cost of disinflation in terms of economic activity,\u201d the document describes. \u201cLooking ahead, the Committee will monitor the pace of economic activity, fundamental in determining inflation, particularly service inflation; the exchange rate pass-through to inflation, following a period of greater exchange rate volatility; and inflation expectations, which have shown additional unanchoring and are determinants for future inflation behavior,\u201d it continued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt was emphasized that inflationary pressures remain adverse, such as the positive output gap, higher current inflation, and more unanchored inflation expectations,” COPOM also wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The COPOM minutes also highlighted that data from recent months indicate signs of an \u201cincipient moderation of growth,\u201d but stressed that caution should still be exercised in drawing conclusions about economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the document, COPOM pointed out that the baseline scenario involves an economic activity slowdown and that this movement is part of the transmission process of interest rate hikes and \u201ca necessary element for inflation convergence to the target.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Committee will continue to monitor economic activity and emphasizes that cooling aggregate demand is an essential element of the process of rebalancing supply and demand in the economy and convergence of inflation to the target,\u201d it highlighted in the minutes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, the committee emphasized that these signs of incipient moderation align with its baseline scenario and further reinforced \u201cthat some more recent indicators, such as services, industry, or employed population, have indicated growth moderation after extraordinary resilience in the labor market and economic activity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COPOM then highlighted that the seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 0.2% in the last quarter of the previous year compared to growth of 1.3% in the second quarter and 0.7% in the third. \u201cOn the same comparative basis, on the side of aggregate demand, there was a reduction in household consumption after a sequence of thirteen consecutive increases,\u201d the minutes highlighted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In emphasizing the need for caution in conclusions about activity, the committee highlighted elements from the past, present, and future. In terms of the past, COPOM pointed out that the data are subject to revisions and seasonal effects. In the previous minutes from the January meeting, the committee noted that the data at the time were high-frequency and required caution in analysis due to seasonality and revisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the present, the committee highlighted that there are \u201ccontemporary mixed data that are not unanimous in one direction.\u201d For the future, COPOM highlighted that a \u201cstrong agricultural growth in the first quarter with possible repercussions for other sectors\u201d is expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The minutes also addressed perception data, such as confidence indicators and credit sentiment surveys. COPOM highlighted that they suggest a greater slowdown than observed in objective data. \u201cMoreover, the coincident objective data have shown mixed results depending on the sector or survey,\u201d the document pointed out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The committee also noted a marginal reduction in the employed population, but within a scenario of low unemployment and high earnings. \u201cEven though recent data suggest some moderation, the labor market remains heated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*By\u00a0Alex Ribeiro\u00a0and\u00a0Gabriel Shinohara, Valor\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo and Bras\u00edlia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Minutes of last meeting show Monetary Policy Committee expects pass-through on industrialized goods of dollar\u2019s recent appreciation against Brazilian real 03\/25\/2025 Minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) show Central Bank officials expects the recent appreciation of the dollar against the real to affect industrial prices in the coming months, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25977,25813],"class_list":["post-93415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-could-contaminate-other-sectors","tag-rising-food-prices"],"yoast_head":"\nRising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Minutes of last meeting show Monetary Policy Committee expects pass-through on industrialized goods of dollar\u2019s recent appreciation against Brazilian real 03\/25\/2025 Minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) show Central Bank officials expects the recent appreciation of the dollar against the real to affect industrial prices in the coming months, and […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-03-25T15:16:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-25T15:16:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gelcy Bueno\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gelcy Bueno\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Gelcy Bueno\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\"},\"headline\":\"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-25T15:16:20+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-25T15:16:22+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/\"},\"wordCount\":1058,\"keywords\":[\"could contaminate other sectors\",\"rising food prices\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Murray News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/\",\"name\":\"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says - Murray Advogados\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-25T15:16:20+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-25T15:16:22+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"In\u00edcio\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/home\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Murray Advogados\",\"description\":\"PLG International Lawyers\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\",\"name\":\"Gelcy Bueno\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Gelcy Bueno\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/author\/news\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says - Murray Advogados","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says - Murray Advogados","og_description":"Minutes of last meeting show Monetary Policy Committee expects pass-through on industrialized goods of dollar\u2019s recent appreciation against Brazilian real 03\/25\/2025 Minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) show Central Bank officials expects the recent appreciation of the dollar against the real to affect industrial prices in the coming months, and […]","og_url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/","og_site_name":"Murray Advogados","article_published_time":"2025-03-25T15:16:20+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-03-25T15:16:22+00:00","author":"Gelcy Bueno","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Gelcy Bueno","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/"},"author":{"name":"Gelcy Bueno","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e"},"headline":"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says","datePublished":"2025-03-25T15:16:20+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-25T15:16:22+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/"},"wordCount":1058,"keywords":["could contaminate other sectors","rising food prices"],"articleSection":["Murray News"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/","url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/","name":"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says - Murray Advogados","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-03-25T15:16:20+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-25T15:16:22+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/rising-food-prices-could-contaminate-other-sectors-central-bank-says\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"In\u00edcio","item":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/home\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Rising food prices could contaminate other sectors, Central Bank says"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/","name":"Murray Advogados","description":"PLG International Lawyers","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e","name":"Gelcy Bueno","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Gelcy Bueno"},"url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/author\/news\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93415","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93415"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93415\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93416,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93415\/revisions\/93416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}