{"id":93363,"date":"2025-03-20T11:43:52","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T14:43:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=93363"},"modified":"2025-03-20T11:43:53","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T14:43:53","slug":"with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>The 100-basis-point hike announced Wednesday marks the fifth consecutive increase, pushing the benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 2016<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>03\/20\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>As expected, the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) raised the benchmark Selic interest rate from 13.25% to 14.25%. The key question now is what comes next. On this front, the committee indicated that, if the expected scenario is confirmed, the adjustment at the May meeting will be of a \u201csmaller magnitude.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The unanimous decision marks the fifth hike in the monetary tightening that began in September 2024, bringing the Selic to its highest level since October 2016, during the Michel Temer administration. This move also signaled the end of the forward guidance introduced in December when the Central Bank raised rates by 100 basis points and indicated two more hikes of the same size in January and March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The COPOM justified this week\u2019s decision by pointing to a \u201cchallenging scenario\u201d for inflation convergence. \u201cGiven the persistent adverse conditions for inflation convergence, the high level of uncertainty, and the inherent lags in the ongoing tightening cycle, the committee anticipates, if the expected scenario is confirmed, a smaller adjustment at the next meeting,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The committee refrained from making commitments beyond May, saying only that the total magnitude of the tightening cycle will be guided by its \u201cfirm commitment\u201d to bringing inflation back to target. Future decisions will depend on inflation dynamics, forecasts, expectations, the output gap (a measure of economic slack), and the overall risk balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The assessment that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside was maintained. The statement also reiterated that market perceptions regarding fiscal policy continue to have a \u201csignificant impact\u201d on asset prices and expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Inflation forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the COPOM slightly lowered its inflation forecasts for 2025, from 5.2% to 5.1%, and for the relevant monetary policy horizon\u2014now the third quarter of 2026\u2014from 4% to 3.9%. The inflation target is 3%, with a tolerance band of 150 basis points in either direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe latest scenario is marked by further de-anchoring of inflation expectations, high inflation projections, resilient economic activity, and labor market pressures, all of which require a more contractionary monetary policy,\u201d the committee said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding economic activity and the labor market, the COPOM maintained its previous assessment that indicators remain strong but noted this time that growth is showing \u201cearly signs of moderation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In its January meeting minutes, the COPOM had already mentioned \u201cincipient\u201d signs of \u201csome moderation\u201d in growth but cautioned that the data was high-frequency and required careful interpretation. This view was later echoed by Central Bank Chair Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo and Economic Policy Director Diogo Guillen in public statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Central Bank\u2019s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), a GDP proxy, rose 0.89% in January from December, exceeding market expectations. However, in December 2024, the index had shown a 0.60% drop compared to November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding the external environment, the COPOM highlighted that global conditions remain \u201cchallenging,\u201d particularly due to economic policies in the United States, and pointed to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policy and its potential effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Following the decision, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad attributed the rate hike to the guidance issued at the end of 2024. \u201cThe Central Bank president said the guidance would be followed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the same day, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range. After the decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a significant portion of this year\u2019s inflation is expected to come from trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. However, he noted that it is still too early to determine the full impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*By\u00a0Gabriel Shinohara\u00a0and\u00a0Alex Ribeiro, Valor\u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edlia and S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 100-basis-point hike announced Wednesday marks the fifth consecutive increase, pushing the benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 2016 03\/20\/2025 As expected, the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) raised the benchmark Selic interest rate from 13.25% to 14.25%. The key question now is what comes next. On this front, the committee indicated [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[23772,25964],"class_list":["post-93363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-brazils-central-bank","tag-selic-at-14-25"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The 100-basis-point hike announced Wednesday marks the fifth consecutive increase, pushing the benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 2016 03\/20\/2025 As expected, the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) raised the benchmark Selic interest rate from 13.25% to 14.25%. The key question now is what comes next. On this front, the committee indicated [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-03-20T14:43:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-20T14:43:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gelcy Bueno\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gelcy Bueno\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Gelcy Bueno\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\"},\"headline\":\"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-20T14:43:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-20T14:43:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/\"},\"wordCount\":616,\"keywords\":[\"Brazil\u2019s Central Bank\",\"Selic at 14.25%\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Murray News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/\",\"name\":\"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead - Murray Advogados\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-20T14:43:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-20T14:43:53+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"In\u00edcio\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/home\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Murray Advogados\",\"description\":\"PLG International Lawyers\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\",\"name\":\"Gelcy Bueno\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Gelcy Bueno\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/author\/news\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead - Murray Advogados","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead - Murray Advogados","og_description":"The 100-basis-point hike announced Wednesday marks the fifth consecutive increase, pushing the benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 2016 03\/20\/2025 As expected, the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) raised the benchmark Selic interest rate from 13.25% to 14.25%. The key question now is what comes next. On this front, the committee indicated [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/","og_site_name":"Murray Advogados","article_published_time":"2025-03-20T14:43:52+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-03-20T14:43:53+00:00","author":"Gelcy Bueno","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Gelcy Bueno","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/"},"author":{"name":"Gelcy Bueno","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e"},"headline":"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead","datePublished":"2025-03-20T14:43:52+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-20T14:43:53+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/"},"wordCount":616,"keywords":["Brazil\u2019s Central Bank","Selic at 14.25%"],"articleSection":["Murray News"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/","url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/","name":"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead - Murray Advogados","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-03-20T14:43:52+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-20T14:43:53+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/with-selic-at-14-25-brazils-central-bank-signals-smaller-hike-ahead\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"In\u00edcio","item":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/home\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"With Selic at 14.25%, Brazil\u2019s Central Bank signals smaller hike ahead"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/","name":"Murray Advogados","description":"PLG International Lawyers","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e","name":"Gelcy Bueno","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/1ef2acfe966d6deacdeccd2a24ea89192c41fd05fc60e57b79021358a47f5641?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Gelcy Bueno"},"url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/author\/news\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93363"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93363\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93364,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93363\/revisions\/93364"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}