{"id":93335,"date":"2025-03-18T12:36:37","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T15:36:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=93335"},"modified":"2025-03-18T12:36:38","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T15:36:38","slug":"energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy prices soar as reservoir recovery slows amid scarce rainfall"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Official forecasts indicate a low probability of heavy rains in the coming months, but grid operator ONS insists there is no supply risk<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>03\/18\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/dM3Z5spW_4akAaYvu27kRMXdD6c=\/0x0:3840x2160\/888x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/6\/X\/fOa4UBTf2ije1onrvxpg\/lajes-1.jpg\" alt=\"The Lajes reservoir in Rio: prolonged heat waves intensified, further straining the system\" style=\"width:540px;height:auto\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>The Lajes reservoir in Rio: prolonged heat waves intensified, further straining the system \u2014 Photo: Light\/Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Reservoir levels across Brazil have stagnated, and electricity prices in the free market\u2014where consumers can choose their supplier and contract terms\u2014have surged. However, Brazil\u2019s national grid operator ONS maintains that there is no risk to power supply, given the current reservoir levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2024, Brazil experienced one of the most severe droughts in 83 years, raising concerns about water storage for hydropower generation. Rainfall returned at the start of the wet season in November, allowing hydro plants to rebuild reserves. However, precipitation tapered off in January and became scarce in February and March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of rain, prolonged heat waves intensified, further straining the system. Both government and private sector forecasts suggest a low likelihood of significant rainfall in the coming months. ONS projections indicate that the wet season, which typically lasts from November to April, could end earlier than usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>River flows below historical averages<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to ONS\u2019s weekly operations report released on Friday (14), river inflows are expected to remain below historical averages in all four energy submarkets by the end of March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The natural energy inflow (ENA)\u2014a measure of river flow as a percentage of the Long-Term Average (MLT)\u2014remains low. A value above 100% would indicate flows above the historical norm, which is not the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ONS projects that in March the North will close at 98% of the MLT, the Southeast\/Central-West at 56%, the South at 45%, and the Northeast at just 24%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of water storage, the North is expected to maintain 95.8% capacity, while the Northeast should reach 77.6%. The Southeast\/Central-West submarket is projected at 67.5%, and the South at 36.7%\u2014the lowest among the regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe outlook for the coming months indicates full capacity to meet national demand. Reservoirs are in a favorable condition, and operational policies are aimed at preserving water resources. We are closely monitoring the potential early arrival of the dry season,\u201d said ONS Director-General Marcio Rea in a statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thermal power plants<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The drying trend has triggered a sharp increase in energy prices in the free market. For more than two years, from 2022 to mid-2024, the settlement price of differences (PLD)\u2014the benchmark price in the free electricity market\u2014remained at the regulatory floor of R$61.07 per megawatt-hour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the 2024 drought has pushed the PLD above this threshold, with significant volatility. Because prices are set on an hourly basis, they have risen sharply at sunset, when around 35 gigawatts of solar generation exit the grid. To stabilize the system, ONS has resorted to thermal power plants to compensate for the loss of solar output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Heat waves drive up electricity demand<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The heat waves in February and March also fueled record-high electricity consumption, occasionally forcing thermal plants to ramp up for supply security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, unexpected events have further strained the system. One such incident involved the temporary failure of a transmission line carrying power from the Belo Monte hydro plant, leading to brief disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, the PLD in the key Southeast\/Central-West submarket has surpassed R$300\/MWh for several weeks. Energy contracts have also risen above R$300\/MWh, in some cases nearing R$400\/MWh, depending on market conditions, according to price projections from energy traders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, Paraty Energia reported that on February 4, the price of hydro and thermal power\u2014known as \u201cconventional energy\u201d\u2014for contracts starting in March was R$93\/MWh. By March 11, the same contract had soared to R$317\/MWh, marking a 241% increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*By\u00a0F\u00e1bio Couto, Valor\u00a0\u2014 Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Official forecasts indicate a low probability of heavy rains in the coming months, but grid operator ONS insists there is no supply risk 03\/18\/2025 Reservoir levels across Brazil have stagnated, and electricity prices in the free market\u2014where consumers can choose their supplier and contract terms\u2014have surged. However, Brazil\u2019s national grid operator ONS maintains that there [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25959],"class_list":["post-93335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-energy-prices-soar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Energy prices soar as reservoir recovery slows amid scarce rainfall - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Energy prices soar as reservoir recovery slows amid scarce rainfall - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Official forecasts indicate a low probability of heavy rains in the coming months, but grid operator ONS insists there is no supply risk 03\/18\/2025 Reservoir levels across Brazil have stagnated, and electricity prices in the free market\u2014where consumers can choose their supplier and contract terms\u2014have surged. However, Brazil\u2019s national grid operator ONS maintains that there [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-03-18T15:36:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-18T15:36:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/dM3Z5spW_4akAaYvu27kRMXdD6c=\/0x0:3840x2160\/888x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/6\/X\/fOa4UBTf2ije1onrvxpg\/lajes-1.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gelcy Bueno\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gelcy Bueno\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Gelcy Bueno\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e\"},\"headline\":\"Energy prices soar as reservoir recovery slows amid scarce rainfall\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-18T15:36:37+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-18T15:36:38+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall\/\"},\"wordCount\":627,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/dM3Z5spW_4akAaYvu27kRMXdD6c=\/0x0:3840x2160\/888x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/6\/X\/fOa4UBTf2ije1onrvxpg\/lajes-1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Energy prices soar\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Murray News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/energy-prices-soar-as-reservoir-recovery-slows-amid-scarce-rainfall\/\",\"name\":\"Energy prices soar as reservoir recovery slows amid scarce rainfall - 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