{"id":93319,"date":"2025-03-17T12:38:01","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T15:38:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=93319"},"modified":"2025-03-17T12:38:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T15:38:02","slug":"china-u-s-trade-dispute-drives-up-soybean-premiums-at-brazilian-ports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/china-u-s-trade-dispute-drives-up-soybean-premiums-at-brazilian-ports\/","title":{"rendered":"China-U.S. trade dispute drives up soybean premiums at Brazilian ports"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>Export price premium reaches 75 cents per bushel at Santos port<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>03\/17\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have increased Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans, driving up export premiums at the country\u2019s ports. Analysts believe this trend is likely to continue in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, soybean premiums at the Port of Santos (S\u00e3o Paulo) stand at 65 cents per bushel for April shipments and 75 cents for May shipments. This reflects China\u2019s need to secure supplies, according to Ronaldo Fernandes, an analyst at Royal Rural.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChina has announced changes to its customs policies, but it is paying a price for this decision. Previously, it took seven to ten days for soybeans to reach processing plants; now it takes up to 20 days,\u201d Mr. Fernandes said. \u201cThe local market is undersupplied, with low soybean meal stocks, and Brazil is the only supplier capable of meeting this demand.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Mr. Fernandes, Sinograin, China\u2019s state-owned grain storage company, still holds relatively comfortable reserves. However, the new customs policy could spark a rush for soybeans among Chinese buyers, leading to significant drawdowns in local inventories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The soybean export premium is the difference between the physical commodity price at a given location and its price on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Various factors influence this premium, including domestic supply and demand, exchange rates, and logistical and port conditions. Fluctuations in these elements determine whether the premium is positive (indicating a price increase) or negative (indicating a discount).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The export premium is either added to or deducted from the futures contract price before converting the value from dollars per bushel to reais per bag. When demand for Brazilian soybeans rises due to external factors\u2014such as trade disputes between China and the U.S.\u2014premiums at ports tend to increase. The market closely tracks these fluctuations, as the premium is a key component in Brazil\u2019s soybean pricing structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jo\u00e3o Birkhan, president of Sin Consult, noted that Brazilian soybean premiums were already positive before the current trade war. However, after China imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans in response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, the trend gained further momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe Chinese now have to source from Brazil to replace the supply they would have received from the U.S. We are going to sell more soybeans, and premiums should remain between 65 and 75 cents for the remainder of this season,\u201d Mr. Birkhan projected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daniele Siqueira, an analyst at AgRural, said that under normal circumstances, Brazilian export premiums would decline at this time of year, particularly with a record harvest expected. \u201cWith the Chinese tariff on U.S. soybeans and pressure on CBOT prices, the trend is for premiums to remain strong despite Brazil\u2019s ongoing harvest. However, we do not expect premiums to rise as sharply as they did in 2018 during the first trade war,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That year, China\u2019s strong demand for Brazilian soybeans pushed the export premium to an unprecedented 200 points, a record high at the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*By\u00a0Paulo Santos, Globo Rural\u00a0\u2014 Campina Grande<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Export price premium reaches 75 cents per bushel at Santos port 03\/17\/2025 Ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have increased Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans, driving up export premiums at the country\u2019s ports. Analysts believe this trend is likely to continue in the coming months. Currently, soybean premiums at the Port of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25956],"class_list":["post-93319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-china-u-s-trade-dispute"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China-U.S. trade dispute drives up soybean premiums at Brazilian ports - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/china-u-s-trade-dispute-drives-up-soybean-premiums-at-brazilian-ports\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China-U.S. trade dispute drives up soybean premiums at Brazilian ports - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Export price premium reaches 75 cents per bushel at Santos port 03\/17\/2025 Ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have increased Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans, driving up export premiums at the country\u2019s ports. 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