{"id":93143,"date":"2025-03-05T11:12:46","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T14:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=93143"},"modified":"2025-03-05T11:12:48","modified_gmt":"2025-03-05T14:12:48","slug":"trumps-tariffs-unlikely-to-impact-brazil-immediately-economists-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/trumps-tariffs-unlikely-to-impact-brazil-immediately-economists-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s tariffs unlikely to impact Brazil immediately, economists say"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>However, experts warn that U.S. trade measures could slow global growth, strengthen the dollar, and add pressure on Brazil\u2019s economy<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>03\/05\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on China, Canada, and Mexico\u2014along with the retaliatory measures from these countries\u2014could impact Brazil\u2019s trade flows, but not immediately, economists say. Their main concern is the broader consequences of the tariff war, including high inflation paired with weak economic activity in the United States, elevated U.S. interest rates, and a stronger dollar globally. These factors come at a time when Brazil\u2019s Central Bank is also working to control inflation domestically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe aggressive set of tariff increases in the U.S. could push the American economy toward potential stagflation,\u201d said Sergio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados. This impact, he noted, is likely to be felt worldwide. If, in addition to Mr. Trump\u2019s \u201ctariff offensive,\u201d other countries retaliate, U.S. GDP could decline by more than one percentage point, according to Mr. Vale. \u201cTrump could still reverse his policy, but signs suggest he will double down on the same mistakes from his first term. The result will be slower global growth or even a recession,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Brazil, he continued, the situation is even more challenging due to the negative impact of currency depreciation. Economic activity was already expected to slow this year due to high interest rates. \u201cThe U.S. measures only worsen this scenario, dragging us into a more adverse situation, with potential stagflation here as well,\u201d Mr. Vale said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Trump\u2019s tariff dispute is escalating rapidly, noted Nicola Tingas, chief economist at the National Association of Credit, Financing, and Investment Institutions (ACREFI), pointing to responses from Canadian authorities as an example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn terms of trade flows to Brazil, the immediate impact is not significant, as it will depend on how the trade war evolves in the coming months and how each country adjusts. The real effects will be felt by economies directly involved in the dispute with Trump. Countries like Brazil, which maintain a certain balance in their relations with the U.S., could face consequences, but over a longer timeframe,\u201d Mr. Tingas said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Brazil is \u201cfully exposed to U.S. interest rates and the strength of the dollar,\u201d he noted. \u201cThe situation is complex, as market forces are pulling in different directions. The best approach for Brazil is to focus on strengthening its domestic economy to be better positioned in case of a more negative global outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Brazilian government has responded with caution, awaiting a conversation between Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services Geraldo Alckmin and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The phone call was scheduled for Friday (28) but did not take place and remains unscheduled. However, Valor has learned that it is more likely to happen next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazilian exporters are also closely monitoring an executive order signed by the U.S. on Saturday to launch an investigation that could lead to higher tariffs on wood products, including lumber and derivatives such as furniture. The justification for the measure, as with the universal tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum, is national security, noted Livio Ribeiro, a partner at BRCG and a researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV Ibre). \u201cThe argument is that there is ample domestic supply and that imports are taking up market share.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although these items are not among Brazil\u2019s top ten exports, the U.S., along with Europe, is one of the main markets for the country\u2019s furniture and wood industry. Any new trade barriers could have substantial implications, said Welber Barral, former Brazilian foreign trade secretary and lawyer at BPP Advogados. \u201cThis could lead to additional tariffs or quotas,\u201d he said. \u201cDepending on the investigation\u2019s outcome, tariffs could hinder the competitiveness of Brazilian products in the U.S. market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The investigation could take up to 270 days to conclude. \u201cGiven Trump\u2019s increasingly aggressive stance, it is likely that tariffs will be raised,\u201d Mr. Vale said, adding that \u201cfinding alternative buyers won\u2019t be simple\u201d with both the global and Brazilian economies slowing down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(<em>Lu Aiko and Fabio Murakawa in Bras\u00edlia contributed reporting<\/em>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*By\u00a0Rafael Vazquez\u00a0e\u00a0Ana\u00efs Fernandes\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>However, experts warn that U.S. trade measures could slow global growth, strengthen the dollar, and add pressure on Brazil\u2019s economy 03\/05\/2025 The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on China, Canada, and Mexico\u2014along with the retaliatory measures from these countries\u2014could impact Brazil\u2019s trade flows, but not immediately, economists say. Their main concern is the broader consequences [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25920,25921],"class_list":["post-93143","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-trumps-tariffs","tag-unlikely-to-impact-brazil-immediately"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump\u2019s tariffs unlikely to impact Brazil immediately, economists say - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/trumps-tariffs-unlikely-to-impact-brazil-immediately-economists-say\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s tariffs unlikely to impact Brazil immediately, economists say - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"However, experts warn that U.S. trade measures could slow global growth, strengthen the dollar, and add pressure on Brazil\u2019s economy 03\/05\/2025 The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on China, Canada, and Mexico\u2014along with the retaliatory measures from these countries\u2014could impact Brazil\u2019s trade flows, but not immediately, economists say. 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