{"id":93010,"date":"2025-02-17T14:06:01","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T17:06:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=93010"},"modified":"2025-02-17T14:06:07","modified_gmt":"2025-02-17T17:06:07","slug":"beef-prices-begin-to-ease-after-inflation-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/beef-prices-begin-to-ease-after-inflation-surge\/","title":{"rendered":"Beef prices begin to ease after inflation surge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Productivity gains and increased supply drive price adjustments, with exports playing a balancing role<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>02\/17\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>After being one of the main drivers of inflation in 2024, beef prices in Brazil are showing signs of decline, a trend expected to continue throughout the year\u2019s first half. Productivity gains and increased female cattle slaughter are key factors behind this movement, even as the livestock cycle shifts toward lower supply. Additionally, the opening of new export markets for Brazilian beef could help stabilize domestic prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The price of live cattle, which surpassed R$350 per arroba (15 kg) in S\u00e3o Paulo last November, has since dropped to around R$320, while beef cuts are also becoming more affordable. In the Greater S\u00e3o Paulo wholesale market, the price of the very popular picanha\u2014similar to the top sirloin cap\u2014fell by 8.28% over 30 days (as of January 13), according to Scot Consultoria. Alcatra (rump steak) and maminha (rump skirt) declined by 4.26%, and contrafil\u00e9 (striploin) dropped by 3.97%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (ABIEC) forecasts a 10% increase in beef exports in 2025, reaching nearly 3.3 million tonnes. Negotiations with key markets such as Vietnam, Japan, Turkey, and South Korea could fuel this growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, ABIEC does not expect the rise in exports to reduce domestic supply. Speaking to Valor, the association\u2019s president, Roberto Perosa, said that while cattle availability will adjust throughout the year due to the livestock cycle shift, the supply to slaughterhouses and both domestic and international consumers will remain steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Perosa attributes this stability to a record grain harvest, which is expected to improve conditions for cattle finishing and feedlot operations, ultimately increasing carcass yields and maintaining overall beef production levels. \u201cWe will see productivity gains alongside a reduction in raw material costs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond productivity gains, Mr. Perosa said that most beef cuts exported by Brazilian meatpackers\u2014such as front cuts and offal (including tongue, heart, tripe, and intestines)\u2014are not widely consumed in Brazil. This means exports do not significantly compete with domestic beef supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cExports play a key role in stabilizing cattle prices in Brazil. Selling these products to Asia, where they fetch higher prices, reduces pressure on the cost of cuts consumed locally, such as fil\u00e9 mignon (tenderloin) and picanha (sirloin cap),\u201d Mr. Perosa noted. \u201cThe more we export, the better the cost structure for meatpackers. That\u2019s why opening new markets is crucial. Exports determine whether a meatpacker operates at a profit or a loss,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Leonardo Alencar, head of agribusiness, food, and beverages at XP, the increased culling of non-pregnant female cattle at this time of year is also expected to boost supply and keep prices under control throughout the first half of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe question is how production and slaughter metrics will play out over the year. While slaughter numbers are expected to decline, the average weight per animal is likely to increase,\u201d Mr. Alencar noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maur\u00edcio Palma Nogueira, executive director at consultancy Athenagro, challenges the expectation of supply restrictions in 2025 and also highlighted productivity improvements. \u201cThe cattle herd is getting younger, we are increasing efficiency, and turnover is accelerating. This allows for more female cattle to be sent to market without compromising herd size,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This will be the first livestock cycle shift since Brazilian beef entered the Chinese market, and Mr. Nogueira believes this could lead to different dynamics than seen in previous years. \u201cIt appears that the cattle industry is now capable of responding more quickly, which could limit major price spikes for consumers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAs we look ahead, beef production is likely to adjust faster compared to previous cycle shifts,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Nogueira expects some fluctuations in cattle prices and beef retail prices but at a more moderate pace than in 2024. While there could be some price adjustments after the rainy season, stability is expected by the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Perosa, from ABIEC, also anticipates more balanced beef prices in the domestic market but acknowledges that achieving a 10% export growth target \u201cis feasible but challenging.\u201d Even if negotiations for new markets do not materialize as planned, exports could still rise through increased sales to Chile and Mexico, as well as stronger trade with the Middle East. There is particular optimism regarding Vietnam and Japan, both of which President Lula is set to visit in the coming weeks\u2014following a recent visit by Mr. Perosa himself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cesar de Castro Alves, head of agribusiness consulting at Ita\u00fa BBA, estimates that beef exports could grow between 2% and 5% in 2025, with additional upside potential if new markets open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Alencar, however, is skeptical about reaching a 10% export increase, even with expected productivity gains in Brazil\u2019s beef industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2024, Brazil set a new export record, shipping 2.87 million tonnes of beef\u2014equivalent to 32% of total production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the U.S. market, the second-largest buyer after China, Brazil had already exhausted its 65,000-tonne duty-free beef quota\u2014shared with nine other countries\u2014by January 15, underscoring strong demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite this, Oswaldo Ribeiro J\u00fanior, president of the Mato Grosso Cattle Ranchers Association (ACRIMAT), reassured that both domestic and international markets will remain well-supplied. \u201cThere will be no shortage of beef for either market,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*By\u00a0Rafael Walendorff \u00a0e\u00a0Nayara Figueiredo, Globo Rural\u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edlia and S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source:Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Productivity gains and increased supply drive price adjustments, with exports playing a balancing role 02\/17\/2025 After being one of the main drivers of inflation in 2024, beef prices in Brazil are showing signs of decline, a trend expected to continue throughout the year\u2019s first half. Productivity gains and increased female cattle slaughter are key factors [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25882,25883],"class_list":["post-93010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-beef-prices","tag-productivity-gains-and-increased-supply"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Beef prices begin to ease after inflation surge - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/beef-prices-begin-to-ease-after-inflation-surge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Beef prices begin to ease after inflation surge - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Productivity gains and increased supply drive price adjustments, with exports playing a balancing role 02\/17\/2025 After being one of the main drivers of inflation in 2024, beef prices in Brazil are showing signs of decline, a trend expected to continue throughout the year\u2019s first half. 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