{"id":92928,"date":"2025-02-07T11:45:49","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T14:45:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=92928"},"modified":"2025-02-07T11:45:52","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T14:45:52","slug":"itau-signals-possible-guidance-revision-amid-economic-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/itau-signals-possible-guidance-revision-amid-economic-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Ita\u00fa signals possible guidance revision amid economic uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em>CEO Milton Maluhy Filho says projections could improve if macro conditions exceed expectations, while analysts view bank\u2019s outlook as conservative<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>02\/07\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>After another year of record results in 2024, Ita\u00fa Unibanco, Brazil\u2019s largest private bank, released a conservative guidance for 2025, according to market analysts. Ita\u00fa CEO Milton Maluhy Filho emphasized on Thursday (6) that this stance reflects greater macroeconomic uncertainty but noted that if conditions improve beyond initial expectations, the bank may revise its projections upward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cGuidance represents a range, not a fixed point,\u201d he said. \u201cIn 2024, we started the year with a certain portfolio pace and ended with a completely different one\u201d he added, referring to stronger-than-expected credit expansion last year. If the economic outlook turns out to be more favorable, Ita\u00fa has significant capacity to accelerate, he noted. \u201cWe\u2019ve never been better positioned to handle any scenario.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Credit growth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ita\u00fa\u2019s expanded loan portfolio reached R$1.35 trillion in December 2024, marking a 15.5% increase over 12 months. Adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations, the expansion was 10.2%. The bank had already revised its 2024 guidance upward, projecting growth between 9.5% and 12.5%, but for 2025, it now forecasts a much lower expansion of 4.5% to 8.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The cost of credit is expected to range between R$34.5 billion and R$38.5 billion, a figure Mr. Maluhy said he is comfortable with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the bank\u2019s Brazilian operations, Mr. Maluhy expects credit growth to land in the middle of the guidance range, between 6.5% and 7%. In the small and medium-sized business segment, growth could once again exceed double digits, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Maluhy highlighted strong portfolio management efforts and said even the more volatile segments\u2014such as personal and SME loans\u2014are in healthy shape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding delinquency rates, he acknowledged there could be a slight increase but expects overall stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s hard to imagine further improvement in default indicators, as they are already at historic lows,\u201d he said. Ita\u00fa\u2019s delinquency rate stood at 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 2.6% in the third quarter and 2.8% in the last three months of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During an earnings call, Mr. Maluhy was asked about Ita\u00fa\u2019s net interest margin with the market, which is projected between R$1 billion and R$3 billion for 2025. He acknowledged that this figure is difficult to forecast, and given macroeconomic uncertainties, the bank chose a conservative estimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOur ability to improve market-related margins is there, but it will depend on the scenario,\u201d he said. \u201cIf we perform better than expected, we may revise guidance in the first or second quarter.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On dividend distribution, Mr. Maluhy said that, barring any major changes, the bank expects to pay an additional dividend on 2025 earnings. \u201cOur goal is not to retain excess capital,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen an extraordinary dividend is paid every year, it stops being extraordinary\u2014so we\u2019re calling it an \u2018additional\u2019 dividend now,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Maluhy also praised the government\u2019s initiative to revamp the private payroll loan market in collaboration with banks. \u201cIt could become a very strong credit program, highly beneficial for the country,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The private payroll loan market is currently valued at around R$40 billion, with Ita\u00fa holding a 30% share. However, Mr. Maluhy said the bank would prefer to hold a smaller share in a much larger market\u2014potentially four to five times its current size.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While acknowledging implementation challenges, he said that once the project is completed, it will greatly facilitate business participation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe new payroll loan system must be available across all channels\u2014there cannot be a monopoly by a single marketplace,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Market reaction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts praised Ita\u00fa\u2019s fourth-quarter results, highlighting credit growth, record-low delinquency rates, and strong profitability. However, the conservative guidance and slightly lower-than-expected implied profit left some market participants unimpressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Goldman Sachs estimates R$45.0 billion in net income for 2025, 3% below previous projections. \u201cWe believe Ita\u00fa continues to deliver the best performance among Brazil\u2019s traditional banks. However, the overall earnings, dividend, and guidance announcement did not bring major positive surprises,\u201d Goldman Sachs analysts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Citi analysts also described the guidance as somewhat disappointing, noting that Ita\u00fa\u2019s credit provisions assume a highly challenging macroeconomic environment. However, they pointed out that if the economy proves resilient, there could be room for adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDespite operating expense pressures, we believe Ita\u00fa has room to reach the upper end of its guidance range,\u201d Citi noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*By\u00a0\u00c1lvaro Campos\u00a0e\u00a0Mariana Ribeiro, Valor\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CEO Milton Maluhy Filho says projections could improve if macro conditions exceed expectations, while analysts view bank\u2019s outlook as conservative 02\/07\/2025 After another year of record results in 2024, Ita\u00fa Unibanco, Brazil\u2019s largest private bank, released a conservative guidance for 2025, according to market analysts. Ita\u00fa CEO Milton Maluhy Filho emphasized on Thursday (6) that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25865,13325,25864],"class_list":["post-92928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-economic-uncertainty","tag-itau","tag-possible-guidance-revision"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ita\u00fa signals possible guidance revision amid economic uncertainty - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/itau-signals-possible-guidance-revision-amid-economic-uncertainty\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ita\u00fa signals possible guidance revision amid economic uncertainty - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CEO Milton Maluhy Filho says projections could improve if macro conditions exceed expectations, while analysts view bank\u2019s outlook as conservative 02\/07\/2025 After another year of record results in 2024, Ita\u00fa Unibanco, Brazil\u2019s largest private bank, released a conservative guidance for 2025, according to market analysts. 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