{"id":92578,"date":"2025-01-21T14:14:48","date_gmt":"2025-01-21T17:14:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=92578"},"modified":"2025-01-21T14:14:50","modified_gmt":"2025-01-21T17:14:50","slug":"trumps-support-for-oil-could-impact-brazils-trade-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/trumps-support-for-oil-could-impact-brazils-trade-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s support for oil could impact Brazil\u2019s trade balance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
U.S. President\u2019s speech reaffirms campaign promises to focus on fossil fuels, countering global decarbonization trends<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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01\/21\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In his inaugural address on Monday (20), U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his administration\u2019s intent to prioritize hydrocarbon production over renewable energy sources. Mr. Trump announced plans to declare a national energy emergency, signaling a shift away from transitioning to a low-carbon economy and emphasizing fossil fuels such as oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe inflation crisis was caused by excessive spending and skyrocketing energy prices. Therefore, today I declare a national energy emergency. We will drill, baby, drill,\u201d he said, referencing oil and gas field exploration\u2014a central theme of his campaign. Mr. Trump outlined a strategy to replenish U.S. strategic reserves and increase exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While his commitment to boosting U.S. oil exports was clear, its impact on Brazil\u2019s market appears limited, according to D\u00e9cio Oddone, a former managing director of Brazil\u2019s National Petroleum Agency (ANP). Mr. Oddone said that Brazilian oil differs from U.S. oil, ensuring demand for both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Felipe Perez, an analyst at S&P, noted that the Brazil-U.S. relationship would hinge on Mr. Trump\u2019s tariff policies. Other factors, such as Brazil\u2019s focus on local content in the oil industry and strengthening ties with BRICS nations (Russia, India, China, and South Africa), will also play a role, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The global impact of Mr. Trump\u2019s measures on oil prices remains uncertain. On Monday (20), U.S. crude (WTI) fell 2.35% to $75.57 per barrel, while Brent crude, traded in London, declined 0.59% to $79.10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts interviewed by Valor believe it\u2019s too early to predict oil price trends. Victor Arduin, risk management manager for energy and currency at Hedgepoint, said Mr. Trump\u2019s decisions might not affect prices in the short term. However, an increase in U.S. supply could drive prices lower in the medium term. \u201cIf regulations are relaxed, U.S. production\u2014currently at approximately 13 million barrels per day\u2014could expand,\u201d Mr. Arduin noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Mr. Arduin, the energy emergency scenario mentioned by Mr. Trump creates favorable conditions for expanding U.S. production. The impact of his measures on prices will also depend on decisions regarding sanctions on Iran and Russia, as well as relations with Venezuela, experts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A potential decline in oil prices could challenge Brazil\u2019s trade balance, according to Mr. Arduin. Oil became Brazil\u2019s top export item in 2024, with exports totaling $44.8 billion\u2014a 5.23% increase from 2023\u2014accounting for 13.3% of the country\u2019s total shipments, per the Ministry of Development, Industry, and Trade (MDIC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Brazilian trade balance, currently benefiting from higher prices and increased oil output, could face difficulties,\u201d Mr. Arduin pointed out. If prices fall, Brazil would need to significantly ramp up production to maintain oil\u2019s contribution to the trade balance\u2014a challenging task without investments in expanding reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil\u2019s oil production is projected to reach 3.6 million barrels per day by 2025, a 6% increase from the 2024 average of 3.4 million barrels per day, according to the Brazilian Institute of Petroleum (IBP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As global forums discuss climate change mitigation, Mr. Trump\u2019s statements contradict the global agenda. Mr. Oddone, currently the CEO of Brava Energia, believes Mr. Trump\u2019s actions could slow the energy transition. \u201cHis measures will likely cool renewable energy plans, especially in areas with strong U.S. influence,\u201d Mr. Oddone said. In addition to declaring the exit from the Paris Agreement, the U.S. President is expected to roll back environmental regulations governing oil activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil\u2019s Environment Minister Marina Silva, who leads the government\u2019s environmental policy under President Lula, expected strong rhetoric from Mr. Trump. In a statement, Ms. Silva said Mr. Trump\u2019s speech confirmed pessimistic forecasts about upcoming challenges. \u201cHis initial announcements contradict efforts for energy transition, climate change mitigation, and the promotion of renewable energy,\u201d Ms. Silva remarked. She described the coming times as \u201cchallenging\u201d but emphasized the importance of information, commitment to life, and political negotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Brazilian government believes President Trump\u2019s measures will be tempered to avoid harming the U.S. economy. Officials close to Ms. Silva noted that formally withdrawing from the Paris Agreement requires a year\u2019s notice, limiting its impact on the upcoming COP30 climate conference, scheduled for November in Bel\u00e9m, Par\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brazil\u2019s environmental team is confident that the fight against climate change will have broad international support, particularly from the European Union and emerging economies. That reinforces the notion that energy transition policies are an \u201cirreversible path.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Observers also anticipate resistance from U.S. state governors heavily invested in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. These subnational actors may oppose Mr. Trump\u2019s fossil fuel agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Trump\u2019s comments are expected to reverberate at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which began Monday (20). Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira, representing Brazil, was reportedly instructed by President Lula to position Brazil as a safe destination for renewable energy investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Davos, Mr. Silveira will highlight opportunities in green hydrogen, biofuels, and solar and wind power\u2014key government strategies to drive economic growth, job creation, and income generation. The minister, the sole high-ranking federal official attending the forum, will participate in a panel on Brazil\u2019s energy market\u2014on Tuesday (21)\u2014and meet with international executives and delegations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*By\u00a0Kariny Leal e\u00a0Rafael Bitencourt \u00a0\u2014 Rio de Janeiro, Bras\u00edlia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. President\u2019s speech reaffirms campaign promises to focus on fossil fuels, countering global decarbonization trends 01\/21\/2025 In his inaugural address on Monday (20), U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his administration\u2019s intent to prioritize hydrocarbon production over renewable energy sources. Mr. Trump announced plans to declare a national energy emergency, signaling a shift away from transitioning […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25796],"class_list":["post-92578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-trumps-support-for-oil-could-impact-brazils-trade-balance"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s support for oil could impact Brazil\u2019s trade balance - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/trumps-support-for-oil-could-impact-brazils-trade-balance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s support for oil could impact Brazil\u2019s trade balance - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"U.S. President\u2019s speech reaffirms campaign promises to focus on fossil fuels, countering global decarbonization trends 01\/21\/2025 In his inaugural address on Monday (20), U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his administration\u2019s intent to prioritize hydrocarbon production over renewable energy sources. 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