{"id":92570,"date":"2025-01-20T13:03:15","date_gmt":"2025-01-20T16:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=92570"},"modified":"2025-01-20T13:03:18","modified_gmt":"2025-01-20T16:03:18","slug":"agribusiness-faces-uncertainty-over-impact-of-trumps-return-on-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/agribusiness-faces-uncertainty-over-impact-of-trumps-return-on-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Agribusiness faces uncertainty over impact of Trump\u2019s return on trade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Industry anticipates intensified U.S.-China trade tensions, but implications for Brazil remain unclear<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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01\/20\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Four years after concluding his first term as president of the United States, Donald Trump has returned to office. Since his victory in November last year, Brazil\u2019s agribusiness representatives have been evaluating the potential consequences of a renewed trade war between the U.S. and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2018, Trump imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on hundreds of Chinese imports, including agricultural and other products. Beijing retaliated by restricting imports of U.S. goods. These measures ultimately benefited certain segments of Brazilian agribusiness, such as the soybean sector, which gained market share in China due to the tariffs imposed on U.S. soybeans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts consulted by Valor indicate that the direction of U.S. trade policy under Mr. Trump\u2019s second term is still uncertain. \u201cFirst, we need to see if Trump follows through on the 100 measures promised for inauguration day. Then, we need to analyze and understand those announcements. Without concrete details, it\u2019s difficult to assess the direct impact on agribusiness,\u201d said Marcello Brito, professor and technical coordinator at the Dom Cabral Agroenvironmental Foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the lack of clarity regarding Mr. Trump\u2019s trade policies, Mr. Brito believes there will be no immediate disruption to the agricultural trade flow between Brazil and the U.S. In 2024, the U.S. was Brazil\u2019s second-largest importer of agricultural products, with purchases rising 23% year-on-year to $12.1 billion, according to Brazil\u2019s Ministry of Agriculture. Green coffee sales led the way, surging 67.6% to $765 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not feasible for the U.S. to suddenly impose tariffs on Brazilian coffee without having the capacity to replace what they might stop importing. Any tariff increases will be applied cautiously, targeting products with minimal impact on domestic demand,\u201d Mr. Brito assessed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The professor noted that a potential new trade war between the U.S. and China may have a limited effect on Brazil\u2019s agricultural exports. \u201cLast time, Brazilian agribusiness benefited because a large gap opened in the Chinese market,\u201d Mr. Brito said. \u201cBut I don\u2019t think that will happen again. There\u2019s no longer room for a significant increase in export volumes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the specifics of any new trade dispute remain unknown, global market conditions have shifted since 2018. For this reason, Mr. Brito expects limited repercussions from a more aggressive U.S. trade policy targeting Brazilian exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn this second term, Trump faces a geopolitically different world. Beyond the lack of unoccupied market space, geopolitical disturbances like wars have already been factored into prices, and trade has adjusted accordingly,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Trant, head of agriculture at U.S.-based consultancy HedgePoint Global Markets, suggested that Brazil will continue to dominate China\u2019s grain supply. In 2023, China imported 105 million tonnes of soybeans, 75% of which came from Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTrump\u2019s proposed tariffs may create volatility in the grain market, but U.S. farmers are less dependent on China thanks to strong domestic demand. Meanwhile, China has reduced its reliance on U.S. soybeans by focusing on Brazil. A critical issue will be whether Trump reduces support for biofuel and renewable energy production,\u201d Mr. Trant said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential introduction of new policies favoring the oil industry, as seen during Mr. Trump\u2019s first term, could impact the grain market, especially corn, noted Tiago Medeiros, Brazil director at U.K.-based trading firm Czarnikow. \u201cTrump will aim for U.S. energy self-sufficiency, which means increasing not just oil exploration but also domestic ethanol production, particularly in California,\u201d Mr. Medeiros said. In the U.S., corn is the primary feedstock for ethanol production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*By\u00a0Paulo Santos \u00a0e\u00a0Camila Souza Ramos\u00a0\u2014 Campina Grande (PB), S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Industry anticipates intensified U.S.-China trade tensions, but implications for Brazil remain unclear 01\/20\/2025 Four years after concluding his first term as president of the United States, Donald Trump has returned to office. Since his victory in November last year, Brazil\u2019s agribusiness representatives have been evaluating the potential consequences of a renewed trade war between the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25792,25791],"class_list":["post-92570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-agribusiness-faces-uncertainty","tag-trumps-return-on-trade"],"yoast_head":"\nAgribusiness faces uncertainty over impact of Trump\u2019s return on trade - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/agribusiness-faces-uncertainty-over-impact-of-trumps-return-on-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Agribusiness faces uncertainty over impact of Trump\u2019s return on trade - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Industry anticipates intensified U.S.-China trade tensions, but implications for Brazil remain unclear 01\/20\/2025 Four years after concluding his first term as president of the United States, Donald Trump has returned to office. 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