{"id":92420,"date":"2025-01-07T21:40:41","date_gmt":"2025-01-08T00:40:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=92420"},"modified":"2025-01-07T21:40:42","modified_gmt":"2025-01-08T00:40:42","slug":"brazils-trade-surplus-declines-uncertainty-looms-over-2025-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-trade-surplus-declines-uncertainty-looms-over-2025-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil\u2019s trade surplus declines, uncertainty looms over 2025 outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Despite a 24.6% drop, 2024 posts second-best performance; exchange rate and U.S.-China tensions add to doubts<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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01\/07\/2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Brazil\u2019s trade surplus for 2024 reached $74.55 billion, a 24.6% drop from the record-breaking $98.9 billion in 2023. Despite the decline, 2024 still secured the second-highest trade surplus since official records began, in 1997, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC). Looking ahead to 2025, experts foresee a surplus comparable to or slightly better than 2024, though still significantly below the peak achieved in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the Ministry\u2019s Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), 2024 saw $337 billion in exports and $262.48 billion in imports. Declining commodity prices and a rise in imports contributed to the smaller surplus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For 2025, a slower domestic economy is expected to curb imports, while an anticipated strong agricultural harvest could boost exports. However, uncertainty persists regarding export prices, exchange rate, and the impact of renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, especially as President Donald Trump assumes office on January 20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGiven the expected good harvest, the surplus should remain at 2024 levels or potentially reach $80 billion if the domestic slowdown materializes,\u201d said Lucas Barbosa, an economist at AZ Quest. He projects imports will stabilize near the 2024 level of $262 billion, while exports could rise to $350 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, Gabriela Faria, an economist at Tend\u00eancias Consultoria, forecasts a $77.6 billion surplus for 2025. She expects a 1.6% drop in export values due to declining prices but notes potential gains in volume, particularly from minerals, oil, and grains. Domestic grain production is projected to grow 8.2% over the 2023\/24 cycle, with soybeans poised to reach record levels, according to estimates from Brazil\u2019s National Supply Company (CONAB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the import side, Tend\u00eancias projects a 3.1% decline in 2025 due to weaker domestic activity. Tightened financial conditions, increased internal uncertainties, slower global growth, and reduced fiscal stimulus form the basis for Tend\u00eancias\u2019s GDP growth estimate of 1.9% for this year, down from 3.4% in 2024, according to Ms. Faria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Barbosa of AZ Quest cautioned that the exchange rate remains a significant challenge. \u201cA dollar trading above R$6 favors exports, especially of goods that might otherwise be consumed domestically. For example, animal protein becomes increasingly attractive for export,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Herlon Brand\u00e3o, director of foreign trade statistics at the MDIC, anticipates imports in 2025 will remain at or exceed 2024 levels, supported by Brazil\u2019s projected economic growth. He also noted that there are no significant indications of large commodity price fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the export side, Mr. Brand\u00e3o expects global economic growth to increase demand for Brazilian goods, particularly food products like soybeans and meat. \u201cAs the agricultural harvest recovers\u201d, he said, soybeans should reclaim their position as the top export product, replacing oil. SECEX forecasts a trade surplus for 2025 ranging from $60 billion to $80 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry concerns<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The wide range in SECEX\u2019s projections reflects the unpredictable nature of 2025, said Jos\u00e9 Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB). His preliminary estimate points to a $93 billion surplus, assuming moderate price increases and volume growth. Commodity prices, he said, are sensitive and can react to any external events. \u201cAEB\u2019s projections come with many caveats,\u201d he noted. Mr. Castro also highlighted uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and their potential impact on global markets, alongside concerns about the exchange rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tatiana Prazeres, foreign trade secretary at the MDIC, described 2024\u2019s trade performance as positive, highlighting the \u201csustained high level of exports.\u201d The decline in export value, she said, resulted from lower product prices, despite a 3% increase in export volumes. SECEX data showed a 0.8% drop in export value for 2024, driven by a 3.6% fall in prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Barbosa of AZ Quest highlighted notable export products in 2024, including beef, pork, sugar, molasses, and coffee. While many of these goods suffered price declines, increased export volumes more than offset the impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Welber Barral, a partner at BMJ consulting, noted that the price drop in 2024 was primarily driven by commodities. \u201cImports, particularly capital goods, increased\u2014a positive sign. Although the surplus fell by nearly 25%, it\u2019s still impressive given Brazil\u2019s historical performance. \u201cA similar pattern could emerge in 2025, with imports expected to continue rising despite the strong dollar,\u201d he said, citing anticipated GDP growth of around 2% even amid an economic slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Barbosa of AZ Quest added that 2024\u2019s trade surplus aligned with initial expectations, but the resilience of imports was surprising. SECEX data showed import volumes grew 17.2% in 2024, while prices declined by 7.4%. \u201cThe volume data reflects robust domestic demand, which continues to flow outward via imports, particularly of capital goods and consumer goods,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Capital goods imports were particularly strong, aided by lower prices, Mr. Castro of AEB noted. Government data showed that capital goods imports rose 20.6% in value in 2024, driven by a 25.6% increase in volume and a 4.7% price decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*By\u00a0Estev\u00e3o Taiar \u00a0e\u00a0Marta Watanabe \u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edlia, S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite a 24.6% drop, 2024 posts second-best performance; exchange rate and U.S.-China tensions add to doubts 01\/07\/2025 Brazil\u2019s trade surplus for 2024 reached $74.55 billion, a 24.6% drop from the record-breaking $98.9 billion in 2023. Despite the decline, 2024 still secured the second-highest trade surplus since official records began, in 1997, according to the Ministry […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25755,25756],"class_list":["post-92420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-brazils-trade-surplus-declines","tag-uncertainty-looms-over-2025-outlook"],"yoast_head":"\nBrazil\u2019s trade surplus declines, uncertainty looms over 2025 outlook - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazils-trade-surplus-declines-uncertainty-looms-over-2025-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil\u2019s trade surplus declines, uncertainty looms over 2025 outlook - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Despite a 24.6% drop, 2024 posts second-best performance; exchange rate and U.S.-China tensions add to doubts 01\/07\/2025 Brazil\u2019s trade surplus for 2024 reached $74.55 billion, a 24.6% drop from the record-breaking $98.9 billion in 2023. 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