{"id":91439,"date":"2024-10-21T12:11:12","date_gmt":"2024-10-21T15:11:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=91439"},"modified":"2024-10-21T12:11:14","modified_gmt":"2024-10-21T15:11:14","slug":"economic-activity-signals-slowdown-ibre-fgv-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/economic-activity-signals-slowdown-ibre-fgv-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic activity signals slowdown, Ibre-FGV says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Lack of \u201cdeliveries\u201d in fiscal area concerns, with pressure on exchange rates, interest rates<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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10\/21\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Silvia
Silvia Matos \u2014 Photo: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The anticipated cooling of economic activity after a surprising first semester is beginning to show in indicators, along with decreasing fiscal momentum. What could be seen as a relief and good news for inflation, however, is overshadowed by the growing deterioration of agents\u2019 risk perception regarding the Brazilian fiscal scenario\u2014a situation that pressures the exchange rates and the interest curve. In such a scenario, it is necessary to urgently \u201cdeliver\u201d spending adjustment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The October edition of the Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Getulio Vargas\u2019s Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV)\u2019s Macro Bulletin slightly revised the expectation for 2024 GDP growth from 2.9% to 3%. Following August data, the third quarter projection was adjusted from -0.1% to 0.1%, compared to the previous three months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Annually adjusted, it is still a strong expansion of 3.2%, according to Silvia Matos, the survey coordinator. \u201cHousehold consumption will likely remain very strong, we anticipate a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Although the job market remains tight, the peak of fiscal stimulus is passing, along with the electoral cycle. It will eventually pressure down not only government consumption but also household consumption and investments in the third quarter,\u201d she explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ms. Matos notes that sectorial data from industry, services, and retail also point to accommodation, while confidence indicators suggest a cooling of business sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Business Confidence Index (ICE) calculated by Ibre-FGV dropped 0.8 points, the first decline after six consecutive rises and only the second in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of supply, the perspective is that the service sector should continue leading with a 0.4% increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by industry (0.3%), while agribusiness should see a 1% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Except for the latter, these are more modest numbers than seen in the second quarter (1% and 1.8%, respectively).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the supply side, a similar situation is seen. Two of the previous quarter\u2019s drivers, household consumption is expected to slow from 1.3% to 0.2%, while government consumption goes from 1.3% to 0.5%. Ibre-FGV expects zero growth in gross fixed capital formation on a quarterly comparison. Meanwhile, exports could slow from 1.4% to 0.7%, and imports, from 7.6% to 0.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt will not be a sharp slowdown, the output gap will not return to negative, especially since we expect a resumption of activity in the first quarter of 2025,\u201d Ms. Matos added. Ibre projects a 2% growth next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This scenario could help the inflation outlook but it has been pressured by two components. First, the severe drought and its impacts on food, as well as on energy tariffs. Economists Andr\u00e9 Braz and Mateus Dias note that farm products inflation rose by 8.4% in September, compared to a decrease of 6.9% a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis pressure is already felt by consumers, with food at home prices rising 6.1% in the last 12 months, against a drop of 0.78% in the same period of 2023,\u201d the economists write. Given the change and maintenance of higher tariff flags, electricity has risen approximately 10% this year, adding 0.4 percentage points to the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ibre estimates the indicator to close 2024 at 4.7%\u2014above the upper target pursued by the Central Bank, and to slow to 4.3% in 2025. In addition to the effects of the drought and strong activity, Ms. Matos highlights the sharp worsening of the fiscal perception, which has kept the exchange rate and interest curve high, a movement that pressures agents\u2019 expectations about inflation and, consequently, the Central Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe inflationary situation worsens in the short term, so the Central Bank needs to act more decisively. With projections trending above the target this year, it\u2019s hard to see the Selic policy interest rate falling next year,\u201d Ms. Matos pointed out. \u201cEven the international scenario may not help much, as was once expected. The Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle with 0.5 percentage points but indicates it might opt for 0.25 points at the next meeting, or even pause it, amid issues around the U.S. elections. Trump has a rather protectionist agenda, which can be inflationary.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The economist notes that, in Brazil, for a while, the market gave the benefit of the doubt to the fiscal framework. \u201cSome had a very optimistic view. Now the market is waiting for some concrete measure of spending control.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ms. Matos regrets that, in Brazil, a severe worsening of the scenario is needed so that there is a favorable policy in tackling the fiscal issue. \u201cWe need to see a prospect that some positive primary result can be foreseen on the horizon, which has not yet occurred. The transition proposal to amend the Constitution (PEC) was approved at the end of 2022 without major disruptions\u2014and it violated the Fiscal Responsibility Act by increasing recurrent spending by around 1% of GDP without saying how this would be financed. That 1% is exactly the current gap. Simply put, this issue remains hindering a scenario that could rather be much more positive, with growth slowing down slowly, a smaller interest rate hike.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, the proposal for income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$5,000 could cause even more distress if it is compensated by applying a minimum tax of 12% to 15% on taxpayers with income exceeding R$ 1 million annually. \u201cThat is a way of re-taxing incomes that are currently exempt, such as profits and dividends and certain types of financial investments. According to Federal Revenue data, the top 0.01% of the Brazilian population with the highest income receives more than half of its income in the form of profits and dividends,\u201d economist Manoel Pires wrote in the report. From a macroeconomic standpoint, however, \u201cthe redistributive change should produce an expansionary impact on aggregate demand. By taxing the richest to finance the relief of the lower-middle class, the proposal should stimulate consumption,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Pires acknowledges that little is known about the measure. He considers its discussion inopportune at the moment, given its strong electoral impact and on public accounts. He adds that the biggest problem concerning the individuals\u2019 income tax is not the exemption bracket, but its design.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn a comparative study of 2023, published in the Fiscal Policy Observatory, it was found that, in Brazil, the deduction per dependent is very low compared to that of OECD countries. For example, a four-member\u2014with three dependents\u2014tends to have a much higher tax burden than a single-parent household with the same income,\u201d Mr. Pires pointed out, noting that the latter has a much greater capacity to contribute. \u201cAdjusting this type of inequality is more efficient and cheaper for the government.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another consequence of the overheated activity starts to appear in the external sector accounts: the current account deficit moving towards near 2.5% of GDP. Although exports remain strong, there was a significant increase in imports. Economist Livio Ribeiro points out that, although such a deficit does not pose a threat to the country\u2019s external sustainability, \u201cit will require more short-term capital, which could make the balance of payments results more unstable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*By Marcelo Osakabe \u2014 Sao Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lack of \u201cdeliveries\u201d in fiscal area concerns, with pressure on exchange rates, interest rates 10\/21\/2024 The anticipated cooling of economic activity after a surprising first semester is beginning to show in indicators, along with decreasing fiscal momentum. What could be seen as a relief and good news for inflation, however, is overshadowed by the growing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25560,25559],"class_list":["post-91439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-economic-activity-signals-slowdown","tag-ibre-fgv-2"],"yoast_head":"\nEconomic activity signals slowdown, Ibre-FGV says - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/economic-activity-signals-slowdown-ibre-fgv-says\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic activity signals slowdown, Ibre-FGV says - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lack of \u201cdeliveries\u201d in fiscal area concerns, with pressure on exchange rates, interest rates 10\/21\/2024 The anticipated cooling of economic activity after a surprising first semester is beginning to show in indicators, along with decreasing fiscal momentum. 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