{"id":91395,"date":"2024-10-16T12:25:01","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T15:25:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=91395"},"modified":"2024-10-16T12:25:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T15:25:02","slug":"external-scenario-pressures-brazilian-real-to-lowest-level-in-2-months","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/external-scenario-pressures-brazilian-real-to-lowest-level-in-2-months\/","title":{"rendered":"External scenario pressures Brazilian real to lowest level in 2 months"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>Chance of Republican victory in White House, Congress affects emerging markets<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>10\/16\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/OGFBbFUA93cLUFGwBF2lnj4ETRw=\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_63b422c2caee4269b8b34177e8876b93\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/d\/y\/g9Wj0zSUa3oD0x5d8oIg\/foto16fin-101-mercado-c2.jpg\" alt=\"Ricardo Car\u00e1 Monteiro  \u2014 Foto: Claudio Belli\/Valor\" style=\"width:574px;height:auto\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Ricardo Car\u00e1 Monteiro \u2014 Photo: Claudio Belli\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The positive sentiment in local markets, buoyed by more favorable fiscal signals from the Brazilian government, was short-lived. External factors once again dominated the movements of domestic assets on Tuesday, with increased bets on a win by Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election significantly impacting emerging markets. The sharp drop in oil prices also played a role in the session, marked by a surge in the exchange rate and future interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The possibility of a \u201cred wave,\u201d with a Republican victory in both the White House and Congress, gained traction in betting markets. According to the betting site Polymarket, which compiles options involving both the presidential race winner and the majority in the Lower House and Senate, there is now a 40% chance of a \u201cred wave,\u201d which has rattled emerging markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Brazilian market, the real weakened to R$5.6565 to the dollar, the highest FX rate in two months. The interbank deposit (DI) rate for January 2029 futures soared from 12.635% to 12.77%, closing at the day\u2019s high. The rate abandoned the morning decline when government signals about spending restraint had an impact. The benchmark stock indexIbovespa closed with a slight gain of 0.03%, at 131,043 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government\u2019s signaling was insufficient to support the real or the decline in future interest rates. The possibility of Mr. Trump\u2019s victory became more prominent in business, especially affecting Latin American currencies. By late afternoon, the dollar was up 1.50% against the Mexican peso; 0.83% against the Colombian peso; and 1.42% against the Chilean peso.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf Trump confirms what the betting markets are indicating, the dollar tends to strengthen initially,\u201d said EQI Asset\u2019s Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Ricardo Car\u00e1 Monteiro. \u201cThe dynamics of our currency have a significant global component. We depend on foreign investors seeing a weaker dollar worldwide to allocate funds in Brazil.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Tuesday (15), Mr. Trump reiterated in an interview his proposal to radically increase tariffs on imports, further pressuring emerging currencies, which were already pressured by the oil price slump abroad, resulting from the removal of premia related to the Middle East conflict and weak demand prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the EQI Asset executive, Mr. Trump\u2019s tariff measures may not necessarily focus on Brazil, but impacting Mexico affects Latin American assets as a whole. \u201cThese measures are not very relevant to us, but when Mexico suffers, Brazil also suffers as they are in the same group of emerging markets. They are markets with two of the worst currencies of the year. If we had our finances more \u2018in order,\u2019 perhaps we wouldn\u2019t be so affected,\u201d Mr. Car\u00e1 Monteiro said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among market players, possible explanations for the increased bets on a \u201cred wave\u201d include the increased tensions in the Middle East and the effects of Hurricane Milton. Additionally, some polls, albeit of lower quality, have shown a rise in Mr. Trump\u2019s polling numbers in recent days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAt the end of September, we were at a 50\/50 probability. Today, the most one can say, considering some progress for Trump, is that he has a 52% chance of winning. That is very generous. Or rather, not yet sufficient to take a confident market position,\u201d Quantitas\u2019 Chief Economist Ivo Chermont wrote in an article published on Tuesday (15).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The economist, who has been closely monitoring the U.S. presidential elections, notes that the reliability of poll numbers continues to spark debate among market participants, as they failed to capture Mr. Trump\u2019s voting intentions in 2016 or 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, Mr. Chermont maintains a forecast of a 50\/50 outcome for the U.S. presidential election or 52\/48 in favor of Trump, given the high uncertainty surrounding the scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Mr. Car\u00e1 Monteiro\u2019s assessment, a more positive internal environment would be required for domestic assets to navigate a more turbulent external scenario well. He notes that the real has struggled to take advantage of narratives that would benefit it, such as the prospect of an increased interest rate differential. \u201cThat\u2019s because we lack a trigger on the fiscal front. In all my market experience, whenever fiscal issues arose as a concern, there was also fear that the interest rate would not be sufficient to control inflation and anchor the currency,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the market, some start to speculate that Brazil may soon face a fiscal dominance scenario\u2014described by the reduction or removal of monetary policy effects due to a high level of public debt. According to BB Asset Management\u2019s chief economist, Jos\u00e9 Maur\u00edcio Pimentel, there is no empirical evidence that Brazil is currently experiencing such a scenario, but this environment is plausible if market expectations deteriorate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe market is pricing the yield curve based on a fiscal outlook that deteriorates over time. Today, the market treats good fiscal news as neutral, neutral news as bad, and bad news as very bad,\u201d Mr. Pimentel said. He emphasizes the negative impact of agents\u2019 perceptions on the yield curve and exchange rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf this trajectory continues, we could enter a fiscal dominance regime. When that happens, monetary policy loses its potency regarding its ability to anchor inflation expectations,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>(Eduardo Magossi, Maria Fernanda Salinet, and Cristiana Euclydes contributed reporting.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*By Arthur Cagliari, Gabriel Caldeira, Victor Rezende \u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chance of Republican victory in White House, Congress affects emerging markets 10\/16\/2024 The positive sentiment in local markets, buoyed by more favorable fiscal signals from the Brazilian government, was short-lived. External factors once again dominated the movements of domestic assets on Tuesday, with increased bets on a win by Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25547,25548],"class_list":["post-91395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-external-scenario-pressures-brazilian-real","tag-lowest-level-in-2-months"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>External scenario pressures Brazilian real to lowest level in 2 months - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/external-scenario-pressures-brazilian-real-to-lowest-level-in-2-months\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"External scenario pressures Brazilian real to lowest level in 2 months - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Chance of Republican victory in White House, Congress affects emerging markets 10\/16\/2024 The positive sentiment in local markets, buoyed by more favorable fiscal signals from the Brazilian government, was short-lived. 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