{"id":91315,"date":"2024-10-09T16:41:49","date_gmt":"2024-10-09T19:41:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=91315"},"modified":"2024-10-09T16:41:51","modified_gmt":"2024-10-09T19:41:51","slug":"fiscal-risk-pushes-real-market-interest-rates-close-to-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/fiscal-risk-pushes-real-market-interest-rates-close-to-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Fiscal risk pushes real market interest rates close to 7%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Medium-term NTN-B rates surpass 6.7% amid uncertainty and Selic tightening cycle<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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10\/09\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Luciano
Luciano Rais \u2014 Photo: Gabriel Reis\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Growing distrust in fiscal policy, combined with the beginning of the monetary tightening cycle, has led to a sharp rise in real market interest rates, reflected in B-Series National Treasury Notes (NTN-Bs)\u2014Brazil\u2019s inflation-indexed bonds\u2014which are now nearing the psychological 7% mark for some maturities. At Tuesday\u2019s (8) weekly National Treasury auction, three-year bond (May 2027) rates hit 6.709%, raising concerns about the government\u2019s increasing financing costs and worsening debt structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent spike in real market interest rates mirrors stress levels last seen in early 2016 during Dilma Rousseff\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBrazil has experienced fiscal distortions and some uncertainty around the Central Bank, but the latter is being addressed,\u201d said Luciano Rais, head of fixed income at Santander Asset Management. However, he warned that the fiscal risks continue to rise. \u201cThe current agenda is more focused on boosting revenue rather than cutting spending,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe market is mainly suspicious of the structural side. While the deficit is a key concern, it\u2019s being tackled with temporary revenue sources, whereas spending increases appear permanent,\u201d Mr. Rais continued. He also noted that despite restrictive interest rates, economic growth remains strong, which is a concern for the Central Bank as it resumes its tightening cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Central Bank\u2019s rate hikes are impacting NTN-B and fixed-rate bond yields. Although longer-term NTN-Bs offer attractive yields, these higher rates don\u2019t seem unjustified. Expected real interest rates will need to rise further,\u201d Mr. Rais explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ronaldo Patah, Brazil strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, agreed that fiscal uncertainty and the recent monetary tightening have fueled the surge in NTN-B rates. He pointed out that while U.S. Treasury movements have been more restrained\u2014with the real U.S. 10-year rate rising only slightly from 1.74% at the beginning of the year to 1.77% now\u2014the Brazilian 10-year NTN-B rate has soared from 5.4% to 6.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Patah added that even if the government meets its primary fiscal target for this year, lingering doubts over whether it can achieve a zero deficit next year are contributing to a roughly 100-basis-point increase in real interest rates as risk premiums become embedded in bond prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWithout new measures and relying on non-recurring revenues like this year, the expected deficit for 2024 is 0.8% of GDP\u2014well short of the zero target,\u201d warns Mr. Patah, noting the possibility that the government may need to revise its fiscal framework targets. Such a revision could worsen the perception among financial agents, potentially driving real interest rates even higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Patah points to two negative signals on the fiscal front: the government\u2019s push to extend the gas allowance and its proposal to exempt individuals earning up to R$5,000 a month from paying income tax. However, he acknowledges that Moody\u2019s upgrade of Brazil\u2019s sovereign rating, with a positive outlook, might encourage the government to pursue fiscal balance to reclaim its investment-grade status.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amid these challenges, Luiz Alberto Basqueira, partner and head of fixed income at Ace Capital, sees a negative bias in medium- and long-term real interest rates. His concerns center on Brazil\u2019s public debt trajectory and the recent deterioration in its structure. \u201cWe don\u2019t like the level of nominal interest or real rates, particularly in the medium and long term. This is a bias, and we are reducing our exposure to these parts of the curve,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Basqueira also highlights potential external pressures on rates. He suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has started its monetary easing at a pace of 50 basis points, may not be able to deliver the number of rate cuts the market anticipates. Additionally, with Donald Trump remaining a frontrunner in the U.S. presidential race, Treasury yields could face upward pressure, which would likely spill over into the Brazilian market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Mr. Basqueira, Ace Capital\u2019s strongest conviction in the interest rate market comes from a more pessimistic outlook on inflation. \u201cBeyond structural factors like strong economic activity, a tight labor market, exchange rate fluctuations, and unanchored inflation expectations, we see heightened risks linked to climate issues such as heat and drought. We are particularly pessimistic about food inflation, which we expect to reach 8% this year and 7% next year\u2014well above market projections,\u201d says Mr. Basqueira, adding that he favors long positions (betting on the rise) in short-term \u201cimplicit\u201d inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Basqueira also highlights that competition for funds with the credit market is another factor pressuring medium- and long-term real interest rates. \u201cThe demand for hedging from credit funds has contributed to the upward pressure on the real interest rate curve,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the substantial issuance of incentivized bonds has negatively impacted government bonds. \u201cIn addition to the competition, the government misses out on revenue due to the tax exemption for these bonds. They undeniably divert resources that could help finance public debt,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of last month, NTN-B issuances made up just over 10% of the total for the year, as the National Treasury has chosen to focus on selling post-fixed Financial Treasury Bills (LFTs), which are tied to the Selic, Brazil\u2019s benchmark interest rate. This shift has raised concerns among market participants about the composition of the public debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf the government believes that current interest rates are too high and expects them to fall, it makes sense to shorten the debt by selling LFTs, which are indexed to the Selic rate. In a rate-cutting cycle, the cost of the debt would drop quickly. However, if the debt is shortened and the government fails to regain fiscal credibility, the debt structure becomes more vulnerable,\u201d warns Mansueto Almeida, chief economist at BTG Pactual and former Treasury secretary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou shift from long-term financing, like the NTN-B, to shorter-term financing with LFTs, which have a maturity of up to six years. This creates a more fragile debt structure,\u201d explains Mr. Almeida. \u201cSelling an NTN-B at a 6.5% interest rate is very expensive. If the government is confident it can take steps to demonstrate its commitment to fiscal policy and bring down that interest rate, it might make sense. But if those actions don\u2019t materialize, if market doubts persist, and if long-term rates remain at this elevated level, the government will be adding to the fragility of its debt financing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Rais, from Santander Asset Management, adds that there is ongoing debate among market participants over whether the Treasury is facing a lack of demand for NTN-Bs or is simply unwilling to accept the high market interest rates. \u201cIf the Treasury has demand but chooses not to issue NTN-Bs due to the high rates, it may be a risky move to leave the debt more exposed to post-fixed rates,\u201d Mr. Rais says, highlighting the potential risks if the Selic rate needs to rise further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*By Gabriel Roca, Gabriel Caldeira, Victor Rezende \u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Medium-term NTN-B rates surpass 6.7% amid uncertainty and Selic tightening cycle 10\/09\/2024 Growing distrust in fiscal policy, combined with the beginning of the monetary tightening cycle, has led to a sharp rise in real market interest rates, reflected in B-Series National Treasury Notes (NTN-Bs)\u2014Brazil\u2019s inflation-indexed bonds\u2014which are now nearing the psychological 7% mark for some […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[20512,25523],"class_list":["post-91315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-fiscal-risk","tag-real-market-interest-rates-close-to-7"],"yoast_head":"\nFiscal risk pushes real market interest rates close to 7% - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/fiscal-risk-pushes-real-market-interest-rates-close-to-7\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fiscal risk pushes real market interest rates close to 7% - 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