{"id":91264,"date":"2024-10-04T15:19:01","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T18:19:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=91264"},"modified":"2024-10-04T15:19:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T18:19:02","slug":"right-wing-surge-re-election-trend-shape-brazils-2024-local-races","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/right-wing-surge-re-election-trend-shape-brazils-2024-local-races\/","title":{"rendered":"Right-wing surge, re-election trend shape Brazil\u2019s 2024 local races"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Polls predict strong right-wing momentum, re-election dominance, and a tight battle among major parties in key Brazilian capitals<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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10\/04\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Brazil\u2019s
Brazil\u2019s electronic voting machines: the strength of the right is particularly noticeable in capitals and large cities \u2014 Photo: Fernando Fraz\u00e3o\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

If the polls hold true, this year\u2019s municipal election in Brazil is shaping up around three central issues: the electoral rise of the right-wing, a strong trend toward re-election, and the dominance of four political parties: Brazil Union, Social Democratic Party (PSD), Progressive Party (PP), and Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB). The strength of the right is particularly noticeable in capitals and large cities, especially where the current mayor is politically weak with low pre-campaign approval ratings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The surge of right-wing candidates is evident in cities like S\u00e3o Paulo, Belo Horizonte, and Fortaleza. In S\u00e3o Paulo and Belo Horizonte, the cities are governed by vice mayors who stepped up due to the death or resignation of the incumbent. Neither Ricardo Nunes (MDB) in S\u00e3o Paulo nor Fuad Noman (PSD) in Belo Horizonte had prior major political contest experience or significant political clout. In Fortaleza, Jos\u00e9 Sarto (Democratic Labor Party, PDT) faced poor management ratings and his party\u2019s weakening due to internal rifts within the group once led by former Governor Ciro Gomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This situation has propelled candidates like Bruno Engler (Liberal Party, PL) in Belo Horizonte and Andr\u00e9 Fernandes in Fortaleza to the forefront. Pablo Mar\u00e7al (Brazilian Labor Reconstruction Party, PRTB) is making significant strides in S\u00e3o Paulo. According to a Datafolha poll released on Thursday, Messrs. Nunes and Mar\u00e7al are both at 24%, statistically tied with Guilherme Boulos (Socialism and Freedom Party, PSOL), who stands at 26%. In Belo Horizonte, Mr. Engler shares the lead with Mauro Tramonte (Republicans) and Mr. Noman, all locked in an unprecedented three-way tie at 21%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In capitals where the mayor is well-regarded and enjoys solid political backing, re-election appears likely. Eduardo Paes (PSD) in Rio de Janeiro is poised to potentially win in the first round by a narrow margin. Jo\u00e3o Campos (PSB) in Recife and Bruno Reis (Brazil Union) in Salvador are expected to secure re-election easily. Of the 21 incumbent capital mayors seeking another term, 10 are favorites to win outright on Sunday. Six are competitive for a runoff, and only five seem poised to miss the final round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researcher Antonio Lavareda from IPESPE (Institute for Social, Political and Economic Research) noted that the overarching issue of the election is normalcy, despite the potentially disruptive nature of the S\u00e3o Paulo race, the only contest that could impact the 2026 presidential election. Across the capitals, the pro-incumbent trend seen in 2020 continues, when only one of 13 eligible mayors\u2014Marchezan J\u00fanior in Porto Alegre\u2014failed to reach a runoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Brazilian electorate\u2019s shift to the right has been growing since 2016 and solidified this year, not only in the mentioned capitals. Right-wing candidates are defined as those running under PL, PRTB, Brazil Union, PSD, PP, Avante, and Republicans, without alliances with left or center parties. This trend has now expanded, and by Thursday night, the right was leading in 16 capitals and could potentially win in up to 23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This right-wing ascendancy is mirrored in other municipalities and, combined with the trend toward re-election, bolsters parties currently holding numerous city halls: PSD, Brazil Union, PP, and MDB. These parties are likely to elect more congresspersons in 2026, potentially joined by Republicans. These parties, which control the leadership of both the Senate and the Lower House, are often labeled as the \u201cCentr\u00e3o,\u201d a cluster of center-to-right parties that has been part of every government since democratization\u2014and a label they dislike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The PL of former President Jair Bolsonaro is also expected to be among the election\u2019s big winners, although it is not part of the \u201cCentr\u00e3o.\u201d The party may not reach its goal of 1,000 mayors as set by its leadership, despite controlling the largest share of the government funds provided for the parties, but it should still strengthen its bargaining power for leadership succession support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Mar\u00e7al openly shares his presidential ambitions and has mentioned occasionally his intent to form a new party. Even if he doesn\u2019t win in S\u00e3o Paulo, his local opponents believe he will have enough political capital to pursue this project. Former President Bolsonaro\u2019s supporters went against his endorsement in eight capitals, including S\u00e3o Paulo. Mr. Bolsonaro is no longer the undisputed leader of the right and will lose control over this field if he remains ineligible in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And what about the left? The outlook is less promising, but expectations were already tempered. President Lula actively campaigned only in S\u00e3o Paulo. The Workers\u2019 Party (PT) refrained from fielding candidates in several capitals, and President Lula\u2019s supporters scattered, following the party\u2019s guidance in only a minority of cases. The governing coalition chose not to challenge local dynamics. The PT is optimistic about Fortaleza and Teresina, where Evandro Leit\u00e3o and F\u00e1bio Novo have a chance to lead in the first round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is uncertainty about reaching a runoff in Porto Alegre, where Maria do Ros\u00e1rio (PT) faces a threat from Juliana Brizola (PDT). Even if Ms. Ros\u00e1rio prevails, the likelihood of preventing Sebasti\u00e3o Melo\u2019s (MDB) re-election is low, as he recovered in polls following the impact of May\u2019s floods in Porto Alegre. PT candidates may also reach runoffs in Goi\u00e2nia and Natal but face bleak prospects for the decisive round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Governors\u2019 influence is stifling national polarization in certain areas. The clearest example is in Bel\u00e9m, where Mayor Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL) is poorly rated, paving the way for \u00c9der Mauro (PL). However, Bel\u00e9m will host COP 30 in 2025, promising substantial economic returns, and the governor\u2019s candidate, Igor Normando (MDB), is gaining traction in polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Goi\u00e2nia, Governor Ronaldo Caiado (Brazil Union), eyeing a presidential bid, brought retired former legislator and businessman Sandro Mabel back to counter the PL\u2019s rise. The backdrop is control over the race for Goi\u00e1s\u2019s gubernatorial succession. Mr. Mabel leads, but PL candidate Fred Rodrigues is gaining ground in polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S\u00e3o Paulo situation is more complex. Governor Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas (Republicans) intervened in the capital\u2019s election to support Ricardo Nunes\u2019 re-election upon recognizing Mr. Mar\u00e7al\u2019s strength. The underlying issue, never admitted by the governor, is the leadership of the right. Mr. Tarc\u00edsio\u2019s involvement coincided with Bolsonaro\u2019s disengagement from the S\u00e3o Paulo campaign. It\u2019s a risky move. If Mr. Nunes advances to the runoff, it will be a victory for Mr. Tarc\u00edsio, not Mr. Bolsonaro. If the mayor is eliminated, Mr. Tarc\u00edsio will face a difficult position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He would have to support Mr. Mar\u00e7al against Mr. Boulos, risking his status as a right-wing leader. But if Mr. Mar\u00e7al wins, Mr. Tarc\u00edsio will not be the main figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the state\u2019s countryside, the contest among the group led by Secretary Gilberto Kassab, PSD\u2019s national president, Republicans, and PL led by former deputy Valdemar Costa Neto leans towards the first in crucial cities like S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos and Ribeir\u00e3o Preto. In Guarulhos, the situation remains uncertain. This local struggle fuels Mr. Bolsonaro\u2019s supporters\u2019 national offensive against PSD, amplified on social media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*By C\u00e9sar Fel\u00edcio \u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Polls predict strong right-wing momentum, re-election dominance, and a tight battle among major parties in key Brazilian capitals 10\/04\/2024 If the polls hold true, this year\u2019s municipal election in Brazil is shaping up around three central issues: the electoral rise of the right-wing, a strong trend toward re-election, and the dominance of four political parties: […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25504,25506,25505],"class_list":["post-91264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-polls-predict-strong-right-wing-momentum","tag-re-election","tag-right-wing-surge"],"yoast_head":"\nRight-wing surge, re-election trend shape Brazil\u2019s 2024 local races - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/right-wing-surge-re-election-trend-shape-brazils-2024-local-races\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Right-wing surge, re-election trend shape Brazil\u2019s 2024 local races - 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