{"id":91132,"date":"2024-10-01T21:33:13","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T00:33:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=91132"},"modified":"2024-10-01T21:33:16","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T00:33:16","slug":"fixed-income-wins-but-outlook-for-stocks-improves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/fixed-income-wins-but-outlook-for-stocks-improves\/","title":{"rendered":"Fixed income wins, but outlook for stocks improves"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
For asset managers, U.S. rate cuts and China\u2019s stimulus package could lead to stock market recovery<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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10\/01\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Marcelo
Marcelo Mello \u2014 Photo: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

September felt like all of 2024 unfolded in a single month. It featured the expected rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a hike in Brazil\u2019s Selic policy rate, and even stimulus measures for China\u2019s economy. The renewed monetary tightening in Brazil kept fixed income in focus, making it the top performer for the month, with a CDI (Interbank Deposit Certificate) return of 0.84%. For the quarter, the rate stood at 2.63%. Meanwhile, after a strong August where Brazil\u2019s benchmark stock index Ibovespa rose by 6.54%, it ended September down 3.08%, with a quarterly decline of 6.38%. The U.S. dollar declined by 3.30% against the real in September and 2.53% over the quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe best asset of the month was the CDI, outperforming the Ibovespa, real estate investment funds, and a basket of inflation-linked securities,\u201d said Marcelo Mello, CEO of asset manager SulAm\u00e9rica Vida, Previd\u00eancia e Investimentos. He mentioned that fixed income attracted over R$43 billion in September, mainly into credit funds, while multimarket funds saw outflows of R$40 billion and equities lost R$2 billion. On the other hand, the pension funds segment gained R$4.5 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Mello noted that both the rate cut in the U.S. and Brazil\u2019s monetary tightening had been anticipated, with the key question being the pace. The Federal Reserve, he explained, started with a stronger approach, with its base rate potentially reaching 3.5% this year, while Brazil\u2019s tightening began more cautiously, with a 25 basis-point hike but a tougher stance, leading the market to project 50 bp increases at each meeting. SulAm\u00e9rica Vida expects the Selic rate to reach 12.5% per year by the end of the cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe began the year expecting more rate cuts in Brazil, which would have opened a window for IPOs, but the opposite happened,\u201d Mr. Mello summarized. However, while the tighter monetary policy directly impacts Brazilian assets, it doesn\u2019t rule out a stock market recovery. The monetary easing in the U.S. opens the door for a rebound, with the expected return of foreign investor inflows, along with the boost from China\u2019s stimulus package. \u201cChina\u2019s stimulus measures provide a lift to commodities, although it\u2019s still uncertain if they\u2019ll be enough,\u201d Mr. Mello pointed out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Tiago Cunha, equity manager at Ace Capital, the domestic environment offers little incentive for riskier investments, and the government\u2019s fiscal policy signals don\u2019t inspire confidence. However, the external outlook\u2014with moderate U.S. economic growth, falling interest rates, and China\u2019s stimulus package\u2014is starting to influence foreign investors\u2019 portfolios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEveryone was expecting the Chinese stimulus package, but there was no clear indication of when it would happen, which is why all positions related to the country were at historic lows. Now we\u2019re seeing a boost in these positions, especially through emerging markets funds, and Brazil ends up benefiting from this,\u201d Mr. Cunha said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Mello, of SulAm\u00e9rica, noted that while equities aren\u2019t very attractive to domestic institutional investors, he also sees international flows coming into emerging markets as U.S. rates fall. \u201cFor the stock market, what\u2019s most relevant isn\u2019t China, but U.S. rates,\u201d he said. \u201cStocks are trading at a discount, and companies have been reporting satisfactory results. If the U.S. monetary policy direction is confirmed, we could see foreign inflows.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Cunha, from Ace, also mentioned that foreign investors are puzzled by Brazil\u2019s divergent path on interest rates compared to the rest of the world. \u201cThey struggle to understand, especially given that the inflation we\u2019re trying to control isn\u2019t far off target. It raises questions about how often the market consistently overestimates inflation and underestimates economic activity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For him, since the extent of the tightening cycle is unclear, it\u2019s also impossible to predict when rate cuts will resume. \u201cIf it depends on anchoring expectations, there\u2019s the additional challenge of aligning fiscal policy with this.\u201d Amid all volatility in expectations, the IMA-B 5+ (an index reflecting the performance of government bonds indexed to the IPCA official inflation with maturities over five years) fell 1.42% in September, while the IMA-B 5 (up to five years) rose 0.4%. Over the quarter, the indexes saw gains of 2.55% and 1.92%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In equities, indexes linked to domestic activity, given the forecast of a stronger Selic rate hike, fell more than the Ibovespa: the Small Caps index dropped 4.41%, and the Icon retail index declined 4.71%. \u201cThe economic data has been strong, and we want to be more optimistic, but we\u2019re being cautious,\u201d said Marcelo Nantes, head of equities at ASA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Nantes recalled that August was a good month for stocks tied to the domestic economy, but the firm thought equities had risen too much and started September more cautiously. \u201cNew money for the stock market is coming from foreign investors because it\u2019s very difficult for pension funds to invest with interest rates at this level. And retail investors are focusing on tax-exempt securities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said that with the results of China\u2019s stimulus package still unknown, the asset manager is \u201cmore in wait-and-see mode than willing to take a gamble,\u201d which is why they kept a small exposure to commodities and reduced their position in companies tied to Brazil\u2019s GDP. The healthcare sector, as well as shopping malls and retail in general, are part of this group. \u201cWe like these sectors and made only small adjustments. We also doubled the fund\u2019s cash allocation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were no changes in the electricity sector exposure, where they remained optimistic, and the telecommunications industry allocation grew. \u201cChina\u2019s move has turned into a positive risk, and Brazilian activity remains strong, but the fiscal issue is the elephant in the room. If foreign flows return, we\u2019ll revise our view.\u201d At Ace, they maintain a bullish position on commodities while increasing their exposure to technology companies overseas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bet on Brazilian stocks isn\u2019t significant at G5 Partners, said Fernando Donnay, partner and head of fund-of-funds at the multifamily office, with an allocation between 5% and 10%, considered neutral. The largest portion of its equity portfolio is invested overseas, where stocks may not be as cheap as in Brazil, but it focuses on global companies. On the other hand, in fixed income, the firm is reducing its allocation, as the risk premiums on private securities continue to shrink.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Mello, from SulAm\u00e9rica, also pointed to the ongoing reduction in spreads as a challenge for credit allocations. He noted that some asset managers are starting to limit inflows into their funds to maintain portfolio quality, especially those with daily liquidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He believes that as these fundraising limits expand, the market will stabilize. SulAm\u00e9rica itself has already closed its daily liquidity funds, and on platforms, they\u2019re working to encourage funds with 60 and 90-day maturities, which allow for the pursuit of more competitive rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gabriel Esteca, co-founder and head of infrastructure at Bocaina Capital, doesn\u2019t foresee a change in the high demand for infrastructure bonds, which offer tax exemptions for individual investors. He has been targeting smaller issuances, up to R$100 million, which the firm originates to secure higher rates. \u201cThere\u2019s no visible trigger in the short term due to the high demand for credit.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*By Liane Thedim \u2014 Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For asset managers, U.S. rate cuts and China\u2019s stimulus package could lead to stock market recovery 10\/01\/2024 September felt like all of 2024 unfolded in a single month. It featured the expected rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a hike in Brazil\u2019s Selic policy rate, and even stimulus measures for China\u2019s economy. The renewed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25487,25486],"class_list":["post-91132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-but-outlook-for-stocks-improves","tag-fixed-income-wins"],"yoast_head":"\nFixed income wins, but outlook for stocks improves - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/fixed-income-wins-but-outlook-for-stocks-improves\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fixed income wins, but outlook for stocks improves - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For asset managers, U.S. rate cuts and China\u2019s stimulus package could lead to stock market recovery 10\/01\/2024 September felt like all of 2024 unfolded in a single month. 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