{"id":91076,"date":"2024-09-25T10:21:06","date_gmt":"2024-09-25T13:21:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=91076"},"modified":"2024-09-25T10:21:08","modified_gmt":"2024-09-25T13:21:08","slug":"central-bank-minutes-signal-faster-tightening-pace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-minutes-signal-faster-tightening-pace\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank minutes signal faster tightening pace"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>The market increasingly expects a 50-basis-point hike in the Selic policy rate by November, with forecasts of 12% per year rate or higher gaining traction<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>09\/25\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/yqZV_-nxuT6z2j97XzmcMsCpNZA=\/0x0:3840x2560\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2023\/x\/Q\/bsHGZzT7SotfsMRDun0Q\/041223ubsglobal9.jpg\" alt=\"Solange Srour \u2014 Foto: Gabriel Reis\/Valor\" style=\"width:642px;height:auto\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Solange Srour \u2014 Foto: Gabriel Reis\/Valor<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>After the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) maintained a notably harsh tone in the minutes of its last meeting, the market has increasingly consolidated the view that accelerating monetary tightening will be necessary starting in November. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point increase in the Selic policy rate at the next decision gained further support, with market participants viewing this scenario as increasingly probable. Meanwhile, the monetary authority emphasized its vigilance regarding the inflationary challenges posed by an economy operating above capacity and current inflation remaining above target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the digital options market, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the next meeting slipped slightly from 18% to 17%, while the likelihood of a more aggressive 50-basis-point increase rose from 64% to 66%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan was among the banks revising its projections, now anticipating a faster tightening ahead. The bank shifted its forecast from three more 25-basis-point increases in the Selic rate to a more accelerated pace in November and December, expecting the tightening cycle to culminate with the basic interest rate at 12% in January. In a report to clients, economists Cassiana Fernandez, Vinicius Moreira, and Mirella Sampaio highlighted concerns over fiscal risks and the relatively muted easing of the exchange rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the J.P. Morgan economists, recent developments in the fiscal sphere, particularly after the release of the bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, \u201ccast doubt on the credibility of the fiscal framework and its key parameters, namely the spending cap and the primary result target.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the minutes, the COPOM dedicated more attention than usual to evaluating the fiscal situation. When outlining factors driving demand, the board pointed to expansionary fiscal policy. Another section emphasized the importance of a credible fiscal policy \u201cbased on predictable rules and transparency in its results,\u201d as well as strategies that reinforce the commitment to the fiscal framework, which are crucial for anchoring inflation expectations and reducing risk premiums on assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The COPOM also indicated that its baseline scenario includes a gradual slowdown in public spending growth over time. The minutes further emphasized that \u201csynchronous and countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies contribute to ensuring price stability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a tone of concern, and we know this has grown over time, especially with the output gap [a measure of economic slack] being positive. The minutes clarified the COPOM\u2019s positions better,\u201d said Solange Srour, director of macroeconomics for Brazil at UBS Global Wealth Management, highlighting the signals related to the fiscal framework. \u201cIt\u2019s clear this will lead to a more restrictive monetary policy,\u201d she adds, noting that the market is already pricing in an accelerated pace of tightening, even entertaining the possibility of a 75-basis-point hike in the Selic rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhat remains for the market, then, is the question: if the Central Bank is so \u2018hawkish\u2019 on activity, inflation, and the fiscal situation, why only deliver a 25-basis-point hike?\u201d Ms. Srour asks. She suggests that the COPOM\u2019s caution regarding a more gradual start to the tightening cycle \u201cdoesn\u2019t seem to stem from domestic conditions\u201d but is likely influenced by external factors, \u201cwhich is somewhat inconsistent with the statement that there is no mechanical relationship between Fed policy and Brazil\u2019s or between the exchange rate and interest rates.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An acceleration of the pace is, therefore, necessary. \u201cA 25-basis-point hike is minimal. I think it\u2019s natural for the market to expect three 50-basis-point increases. Whether that will be sufficient depends heavily on external factors. Domestically, I don\u2019t see anything significant that would make the cycle less aggressive,\u201d argues Ms. Srour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the view of Porto Asset Management\u2019s chief economist, Felipe Sichel, the minutes indicate that the COPOM\u2019s gradualism was limited to the beginning of the cycle. He believes the restrained start of the Selic rate hike aligns with the Central Bank\u2019s scenario, which includes robust economic activity, upward inflationary pressure, and the possibility that the neutral interest rate\u2014the rate that neither stimulates nor contracts economic activity\u2014may have risen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe started the cycle with gradualism. Our base case currently projects 25-basis-point increases, but it\u2019s clear the COPOM is data-dependent,\u201d Mr. Sichel notes. He adds that the firm\u2019s projection for the Selic rate is under review and that they are waiting for the release of the Inflation Report on Thursday (25) for further clarity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At Quantitas, chief economist Ivo Chermont now expects three 50-basis-point increases in the basic interest rate, followed by a final 25-basis-point hike in March, bringing the Selic to 12.5%. Previously, the firm had projected the rate to reach 12%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cInflation expectations remain a concern because, even after a more \u2018hawkish\u2019 COPOM and its strong message of commitment to the target, the Focus report hasn\u2019t improved,\u201c says Mr. Chermont, referring to the further deterioration in inflation projections released on Monday (23). \u201cPart of the explanation likely stems from the fiscal situation, which has worsened in recent weeks,\u201d he argues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Quantitas economist also highlights that their scenario revision wasn\u2019t based on new data but on the Central Bank\u2019s acknowledgment of a positive output gap and the inflation projection increase for the relevant horizon, from 3.2% to 3.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canvas Capital\u2019s chief economist, Camila de Faria Lima, expects the Selic rate to reach 12% per year by the end of the cycle in January 2025. According to her, the COPOM will need to accelerate the pace of tightening at its November meeting unless economic activity and inflation cool down quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cUnless we see a significant shift in activity or more positive surprises in the inflation breakdown, I believe the most likely outcome is a move to 50 basis points,\u201d says Ms. Faria Lima. She adds that the minutes reiterated the Central Bank\u2019s \u201cdeep concern\u201d in reinforcing its commitment to hitting the inflation target within the relevant monetary policy horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The demand for increased spending and attempts to exclude certain expenses from the fiscal target\u2014such as expanding the gas allowance and combating fires\u2014creates a \u201csense of lost transparency that is very damaging,\u201d argues the Canvas economist. \u201cThe market doesn\u2019t believe the government will pursue a better primary result to stabilize the public debt trajectory,\u201d she said. \u201cIt would be beneficial to have clarity and a correction to this narrative.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, she doesn\u2019t foresee the Central Bank accelerating the pace of tightening beyond the 50-basis-point hikes she has projected, which the market has already priced in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Gabriel Caldeira, Victor Rezende, Gabriel Shinohara, Alex Ribeiro\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo and Bras\u00edlia<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Souce: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The market increasingly expects a 50-basis-point hike in the Selic policy rate by November, with forecasts of 12% per year rate or higher gaining traction 09\/25\/2024 After the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) maintained a notably harsh tone in the minutes of its last meeting, the market has increasingly consolidated the view that accelerating [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25471,25472],"class_list":["post-91076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-central-bank-minutes","tag-signal-faster-tightening-pace"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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