{"id":90846,"date":"2024-09-06T20:55:22","date_gmt":"2024-09-06T23:55:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=90846"},"modified":"2024-09-06T20:55:24","modified_gmt":"2024-09-06T23:55:24","slug":"u-s-interest-rate-cut-may-provide-additional-support-to-ibovespa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/u-s-interest-rate-cut-may-provide-additional-support-to-ibovespa\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. interest rate cut may provide additional support to Ibovespa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>While talks of further Selic rate hikes remain in focus, the stock market has surged 10.2% since early July<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>09\/06\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/tlIVUhe2l_cDlDVcjPkf5pE5rnw=\/0x0:1153x783\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2023\/X\/x\/OmpMDcRVagCthS7EThsw\/24emp-100-bala-b1-img01.jpg\" alt=\"Aline Cardoso \u2014 Foto: Carol Carquejeiro\/Valor\" style=\"width:510px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Aline Cardoso \u2014 Foto: Carol Carquejeiro\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the U.S. monetary easing cycle approaches, market participants are increasingly anticipating this month\u2019s interest rate decision, expecting it could fuel further gains for the benchmark stock index Ibovespa. According to Santander\u2019s analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts tend to benefit the Brazilian stock market, provided they occur within the context of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. It\u2019s no coincidence that, despite recent speculation about additional Selic rate hikes\u2014Brazil\u2019s policy interest rate\u2014the Ibovespa has already surged by 10.2% in the second half of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis is an unprecedented cycle,\u201d said Aline Cardoso, Santander\u2019s head of research and equity strategy, emphasizing that if U.S. and Brazilian monetary policies diverge as expected, it would mark the first time since the Real Plan that Brazilian interest rates increase without the U.S. economy being in a deep recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Santander\u2019s study recalls that in 1995, following a U.S. interest rate cut, the Brazilian stock market rose 20.1% in the quarter leading up to the decision, 15.8% in the three months after, and 22.6% over the subsequent six months. Similarly, in 2019, the Ibovespa gained 5.6% in the three months before the U.S. Federal Reserve initiated rate cuts, 5.6% in the following quarter, and 13.5% over the next six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf U.S. interest rate cuts are implemented in a more stable economic environment, aimed at gently stimulating growth, they typically have a positive impact on both stocks and bonds,\u201d notes Santander in a report authored by Ms. Cardoso and analysts Guilherme Bellizzi Motta and Luane Fontes, \u201cas they signal confidence in the economy while offering support to financial markets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast, during a U.S. recession, Ms. Cardoso points out that it has been rare for the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates while the Brazilian Central Bank was compelled to raise the Selic rate. \u201cThis has only occurred twice, during two extreme crises \u2014 in 2001, after the burst of the dot-com bubble, and in 2007, to stabilize the banking system,\u201d she notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the latter occasion, the recession was so severe that it led to heightened risk aversion, strengthening the dollar and weakening emerging market currencies, including the real. Faced with this shock, the Central Bank had to raise interest rates to curb inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This time, however, Ms. Cardoso believes that any potential Selic rate hike could be driven by the need to restore the Central Bank\u2019s credibility with economic and market agents. \u201cThe rise in interest rates would reflect the risk premium associated with changes in the Central Bank\u2019s leadership next year, with the president and three directors stepping down. The market is concerned about how the monetary authority will navigate this transition,\u201d she explains, noting that such uncertainty contributes to higher risk premiums on assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Brazilian stock market has historically suffered during periods when U.S. monetary easing coincided with a \u201chard landing.\u201d According to Santander, three months after a U.S. rate cut in such conditions, the Ibovespa declined by 5.5%, with a 5.8% drop six months later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOur analysis concludes that stock performance has been asymmetrical over time,\u201d says Ms. Cardoso. \u201cDuring mild economic downturns, both the Ibovespa and the S&amp;P 500 tend to exhibit significant gains, with the upside often outweighing losses during more severe slowdowns,\u201d she explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During periods of \u201cextraordinary\u201d interest rate cuts\u2014often implemented in response to sudden shocks, such as in 1987 and 1998\u2014the trend generally favors equities, provided the underlying credit or liquidity event does not severely impact the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, some market participants remain cautious about the potential impact of an additional tightening of the Selic rate on the stock market. In a note to clients, J.P. Morgan\u2019s Latin America equities strategy team, led by Emy Shayo Cherman, highlights that equities have delivered negative returns during all rate hike cycles since 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhat could be different this time? First, this tightening cycle is much shorter compared to previous ones. Second, there\u2019s an expectation that all rate hikes will eventually be reversed, and even future easing could follow. Some may view this as a reasonable cost to bring interest rates down to single digits while simultaneously bolstering the Central Bank\u2019s credibility,\u201d the J.P. Morgan strategists explain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bank of America (BofA) professionals share a similar view, noting that if the Fed cuts interest rates amid a \u201csoft landing,\u201d the outlook could be positive for Latin American stocks, though local factors will also play a key role. \u201cIn Brazil, markets have already priced in Selic rate increases, and we continue to monitor concerns surrounding fiscal policy,\u201d BofA\u2019s strategists note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BofA maintains its \u201coverweight\u201d recommendation (exposure above the market average) for Brazilian equities, emphasizing the country\u2019s potential for corporate profit growth this year. Despite the Ibovespa\u2019s recent rally, valuations remain \u201crelatively attractive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Maria Fernanda Salinet\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While talks of further Selic rate hikes remain in focus, the stock market has surged 10.2% since early July 09\/06\/2024 Aline Cardoso \u2014 Foto: Carol Carquejeiro\/Valor As the U.S. monetary easing cycle approaches, market participants are increasingly anticipating this month\u2019s interest rate decision, expecting it could fuel further gains for the benchmark stock index Ibovespa. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25415,25414],"class_list":["post-90846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-additional-support-to-ibovespa","tag-u-s-interest-rate-cut"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>U.S. interest rate cut may provide additional support to Ibovespa - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/u-s-interest-rate-cut-may-provide-additional-support-to-ibovespa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"U.S. interest rate cut may provide additional support to Ibovespa - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"While talks of further Selic rate hikes remain in focus, the stock market has surged 10.2% since early July 09\/06\/2024 Aline Cardoso \u2014 Foto: Carol Carquejeiro\/Valor As the U.S. monetary easing cycle approaches, market participants are increasingly anticipating this month\u2019s interest rate decision, expecting it could fuel further gains for the benchmark stock index Ibovespa. 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