{"id":90661,"date":"2024-08-28T12:27:59","date_gmt":"2024-08-28T15:27:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=90661"},"modified":"2024-08-28T12:28:01","modified_gmt":"2024-08-28T15:28:01","slug":"uncertainty-about-next-steps-for-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/uncertainty-about-next-steps-for-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainty about next steps for interest rates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em>Market has discussed need for rate hike in last weeks<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>08\/28\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/kpQPODBf4kzuAvFuqpXdz2yQkQM=\/0x0:3840x2550\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2022\/A\/C\/ca4EU0SmmtYocd4v6EAg\/280521genoa30.jpg\" alt=\"Igor Velecico \u2014 Foto: Silvia Costanti\/Valor\" style=\"width:566px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Igor Velecico \u2014 Foto: Silvia Costanti\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The mounting uncertainty regarding the direction of monetary policy has been significant in recent weeks. The perception of an economy resistant to slowing down has joined the U.S. dollar\u2019s appreciation against the real this year, supporting a growing view that the Central Bank will be forced to resume monetary tightening in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alongside this perception is the recent communication from some Central Bank officials, particularly directors Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo (monetary policy) and Diogo Guillen (economic policy).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before the interest rate decision in July, few analysts projected new increases in the Selic policy interest rate, such as XP Asset Management and Novus Capital. After the policy meeting, the scenario gained significant supporters including Legacy Capital, Ita\u00fa Asset Management, and ASA. More recently, some sell-side players have also adopted this scenario, including XP and BTG Pactual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, there remains some uncertainty on the radar. Not by coincidence, although the interest rate curve and the COPOM digital options market continue to indicate a majority chance of the Selic tightening cycle beginning in September, the consensus in the Focus\u2014Central Bank\u2019s weekly survey with economists\u2014still puts the policy rate at 10.5% per year, although the average of projections has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent days, banks like Barclays, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley reaffirmed their projection that the Selic will remain at 10.5% per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The appreciation of the Brazilian real since the peak of stress, when the exchange rate reached R$5.86 per dollar, and the expected economic slowdown are cited by those who reject the view that an interest rate hike is necessary. Additionally, an imminent easing of the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s policy would also factor into the equation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Valor spoke with two market participants with differing views on the necessity of a process to raise the Selic starting in September, as has been priced in the market rates for some time now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Igor Velecico, Genoa Capital\u2019s chief economist, has adopted a scenario in which the Central Bank raises the policy interest rate by 25 basis points in September, reaching 12% per year by early 2025. According to him, the resumption of tightening is necessary, as the context encompasses an economy that is not in equilibrium. \u201cAnd this generates inflation,\u201d he said, projecting 12-month IPCA (Brazil\u2019s official inflation index) at 4.3% this year and 4.2% in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe Central Bank will gain credibility if it does the right thing. The right thing to do at the moment is to raise interest rates to address domestic imbalances and bring inflation closer to the target of 3%,\u201d said the economist, who sees an \u201coverheated\u201d economic activity in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the opposite side, the chief strategist at Warren Investimentos, S\u00e9rgio Goldenstein, sees no need for an additional tightening of interest rates and projects the Selic to remain at 10.5% per year for a longer period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf the Central Bank promotes a cycle of a 150- to 200-basis-point increase [in the Selic], its model, over the relevant horizon, will point to an IPCA projection of 2.7%. Instead of initiating a tightening cycle only to soon have to start a cutting cycle, it seems much more coherent to keep the Selic stable, with a strong discourse,\u201d argues the professional, who previously headed the monetary authority\u2019s open market department.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Gabriel Roca, Victor Rezende\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market has discussed need for rate hike in last weeks 08\/28\/2024 Igor Velecico \u2014 Foto: Silvia Costanti\/Valor The mounting uncertainty regarding the direction of monetary policy has been significant in recent weeks. The perception of an economy resistant to slowing down has joined the U.S. dollar\u2019s appreciation against the real this year, supporting a growing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[8976,25390],"class_list":["post-90661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-interest-rates","tag-uncertainty-about-next-steps"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Uncertainty about next steps for interest rates - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/uncertainty-about-next-steps-for-interest-rates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Uncertainty about next steps for interest rates - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market has discussed need for rate hike in last weeks 08\/28\/2024 Igor Velecico \u2014 Foto: Silvia Costanti\/Valor The mounting uncertainty regarding the direction of monetary policy has been significant in recent weeks. 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