{"id":90494,"date":"2024-08-13T13:49:51","date_gmt":"2024-08-13T16:49:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=90494"},"modified":"2024-08-13T13:49:54","modified_gmt":"2024-08-13T16:49:54","slug":"central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank nears interest rate hike, managers say"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em>Professionals anticipate COPOM will actualize monetary tightening following communication adjustments<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>08\/13\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/XMm7caKnlMv04uxkYHnP2VxgClg=\/0x0:3840x2542\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/U\/w\/cPWtENThAYOPolKOuBtQ\/imgm4295.jpg\" alt=\"Genoa\u2019s Andr\u00e9 Raduan, Ita\u00fa Asset\u2019s Bruno Serra Fernandes, and Verde\u2019s Luiz Parreiras \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o\" style=\"width:704px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Genoa\u2019s Andr\u00e9 Raduan, Ita\u00fa Asset\u2019s Bruno Serra Fernandes, and Verde\u2019s Luiz Parreiras \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM)<\/strong>&nbsp;is anticipated to consider an&nbsp;<strong>increase in the Selic<\/strong>, the policy interest rate, during its next session. Leading asset managers, including Andr\u00e9 Raduan from&nbsp;<strong>Genoa Capital<\/strong>, Bruno Serra Fernandes from&nbsp;<strong>Ita\u00fa Asset<\/strong>, and Luiz Parreiras from&nbsp;<strong>Verde Asset<\/strong>, suggest that this is in light of recent adjustments in the committee\u2019s communications aimed at bolstering credibility as a leadership change looms at the Central Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking at a&nbsp;<strong>Warren Investimentos<\/strong>&nbsp;event, they noted that since last week\u2019s remarks by&nbsp;<strong>Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo<\/strong>, the director of monetary policy\u2014including his&nbsp;<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/economy\/news\/2024\/08\/12\/high-interest-rate-risk-remains-on-radar.ghtml\">latest speech<\/a>\u2014domestic assets have responded to the anticipation that the Central Bank\u2019s new leadership in 2025 will adhere to a strict inflation targeting regime, potentially at the cost of higher interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent IPCA data (Brazil\u2019s benchmark inflation index) indicating an uptick in the expected rate for next year suggests that the COPOM may have no alternative but to enact the discussed austerity measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The employment figures are better than anticipated, impacting wages and income, while economic activity has shown unexpected robustness. The Central Bank\u2019s models indicate inflation trending above target, per Andr\u00e9 Raduan. Mr. Raduan elaborated, \u201cThere\u2019s a general consensus that interest rates need to be increased. It\u2019s a prudent measure to stabilize expectations and diminish the risk premium.\u201d He added, \u201cThis sets the stage for more substantial rate cuts next year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the exchange rate was stabilized between R$4.90 and R$5.00 per year, the Central Bank might maintain the current Selic rate of 10.5% for a more extended period. However, with a robust economy, historically low unemployment rates, and significant fiscal stimuli provided last year and this year, rising inflation beyond target could elevate expectations, suggests Mr. Parreiras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe exchange rate has complicated an already complex situation. It might necessitate a more assertive response from the Central Bank. The exchange rate, having risen from R$5 per dollar at the end of 2023 to R$5.70 recently, almost inevitably impacts expectations significantly,\u201d Mr. Parreiras commented. \u201cAn interest rate hike seems increasingly necessary to regain control over inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Serra, a former director of monetary policy at the Central Bank, noted that investors have been concerned about potential restrictions on the Central Bank\u2019s institutional role. \u201cCentral banks adjust interest rates as necessary\u2014raising them when required and lowering them when possible. There can be no stable currency environment if there are constraints on these actions.\u201d As the valve for uncertainty was currency depreciation, inflationary expectations rose. \u201cThe exchange rate would probably be much closer to R$5 [per dollar] than R$6 if we hadn\u2019t had this doubt. The fact is that this doubt will gradually be cleared up in due course.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the market perceived that the Central Bank would maintain its usual approach, long-term interest rates quickly rebounded, suggesting that the next likely move would be to raise interest rates due to a more challenging economic environment, Mr. Serra explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite recent easing, he does not believe this will deter the COPOM from pursuing a rate hike. Echoing remarks made by Mr. Gal\u00edpolo in a previous discussion, he emphasized that the Central Bank cannot simply revel in robust economic performance; it must remain vigilant \u201cand remove the punch bowl just as the party gets going.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Parreiras noted that even the stock market has rallied because of the decline in long-term interest rates, reflecting \u201can almost instantaneous gain in credibility.\u201d The risk premiums monitored by Central Banks also declined. \u201cThe difference between being caught in a vicious cycle and entering a virtuous one appears almost magical, a matter of credibility. The market reacts swiftly once it shifts its perception.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the Brazilian Central Bank is leaning towards raising interest rates, the&nbsp;<strong>U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to begin reducing its rates<\/strong>. Mr. Serra contends that Jerome Powell\u2019s Fed should not cut its benchmark rates too hastily but should proceed cautiously to avoid advocating for rapid reductions. \u201cBy allowing the market to anticipate a longer cycle, it achieves a more favorable outcome,\u201d he noted, adding that in the U.S., the impact of monetary policy on economic activity is more immediate, unlike the delayed effects often observed in Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Raduan of Genoa Capital expressed that his firm is not anticipating a high likelihood of a recession, noting that both American consumers and companies are relatively deleveraged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, Mr. Parreiras from Verde Asset highlighted the historical unpredictability of U.S. unemployment rates, which do not tend to rise gradually but rather in sudden spikes, posing a significant risk. \u201cThe economy is so robust that it overshadows the microeconomic conditions; it\u2019s more about the prevailing attitudes, making it challenging to predict when unemployment will rise,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Parreiras also speculated that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to enact up to three interest rate cuts by 2025. \u201cIn my view, the cuts could come sooner rather than later. The U.S. Federal Reserve was close to reducing rates by 0.50 percentage points in July but ultimately held back,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Adriana Cotias\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Professionals anticipate COPOM will actualize monetary tightening following communication adjustments 08\/13\/2024 Genoa\u2019s Andr\u00e9 Raduan, Ita\u00fa Asset\u2019s Bruno Serra Fernandes, and Verde\u2019s Luiz Parreiras \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM)&nbsp;is anticipated to consider an&nbsp;increase in the Selic, the policy interest rate, during its next session. Leading asset managers, including Andr\u00e9 Raduan from&nbsp;Genoa Capital, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8104],"tags":[8740,25369],"class_list":["post-90494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-central-bank","tag-interest-rate-hike"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Central Bank nears interest rate hike, managers say - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Central Bank nears interest rate hike, managers say - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Professionals anticipate COPOM will actualize monetary tightening following communication adjustments 08\/13\/2024 Genoa\u2019s Andr\u00e9 Raduan, Ita\u00fa Asset\u2019s Bruno Serra Fernandes, and Verde\u2019s Luiz Parreiras \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM)&nbsp;is anticipated to consider an&nbsp;increase in the Selic, the policy interest rate, during its next session. 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Leading asset managers, including Andr\u00e9 Raduan from&nbsp;Genoa Capital, [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say\/","og_site_name":"Murray Advogados","article_published_time":"2024-08-13T16:49:51+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-08-13T16:49:54+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/XMm7caKnlMv04uxkYHnP2VxgClg=\/0x0:3840x2542\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/U\/w\/cPWtENThAYOPolKOuBtQ\/imgm4295.jpg","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Gelcy Bueno","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Gelcy Bueno","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say\/"},"author":{"name":"Gelcy Bueno","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/dd0d0bea46c2436124555d18c1a0d52e"},"headline":"Central Bank nears interest rate hike, managers say","datePublished":"2024-08-13T16:49:51+00:00","dateModified":"2024-08-13T16:49:54+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say\/"},"wordCount":902,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/XMm7caKnlMv04uxkYHnP2VxgClg=\/0x0:3840x2542\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/U\/w\/cPWtENThAYOPolKOuBtQ\/imgm4295.jpg","keywords":["Central Bank","interest rate hike"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say\/","url":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-nears-interest-rate-hike-managers-say\/","name":"Central Bank nears interest rate hike, managers say - 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