{"id":90411,"date":"2024-08-06T16:02:41","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T19:02:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=90411"},"modified":"2024-08-06T16:02:42","modified_gmt":"2024-08-06T19:02:42","slug":"recession-fears-spark-risk-aversion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/recession-fears-spark-risk-aversion\/","title":{"rendered":"Recession fears spark risk aversion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em>While services data offers relief, concerns about the U.S. economy persis<\/em>t<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>08\/06\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/vIU5roAJAVvViY6W79YXLmHJWE0=\/0x0:3840x2550\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2023\/q\/q\/mXOe9VRkqghRiGvuS6nw\/290323ruyalves013.jpg\" alt=\"Ruy Alves \u2014 Foto: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor\" style=\"width:678px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Ruy Alves \u2014 Foto: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Global markets<\/strong>&nbsp;plunged into panic amid mounting&nbsp;<strong>fears of a U.S. recession<\/strong>&nbsp;in Monday\u2019s trading session.&nbsp;<strong>Risk aversion<\/strong>&nbsp;gripped investors from the early hours, starting with Japan\u2019s stock market experiencing its second-worst day ever and continuing across global stock markets throughout the day. In Brazil, concerns pushed the exchange rate to its highest close since March 2021, while Brazil\u2019s benchmark stock index (<strong>Ibovespa<\/strong>) also fell, though local asset losses were less severe compared to their international counterparts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The day\u2019s trading commenced with high tension as Asian stock markets recorded substantial losses driven by fears of a U.S. economic slowdown and concerns over a&nbsp;<strong>tech stock bubble<\/strong>. Japan\u2019s primary market index, the&nbsp;<strong>Nikkei<\/strong>, plummeted 12.4%, marking its steepest decline since 1987, and South Korea\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>Kospi<\/strong>&nbsp;index closed down 8.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. markets mirrored this downward trend, with significant indices suffering heavy losses. The&nbsp;<strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/strong>&nbsp;dropped 2.60%, the S&amp;P 500 declined by 3.00%, and the&nbsp;<strong>Nasdaq Composite<\/strong>&nbsp;fell 3.43%, dipping over 6% at one point during the session. The S&amp;P 500 experienced its worst day since September 2022. Furthermore, the VIX index, often referred to as Wall Street\u2019s \u201cfear gauge,\u201d surged by 65%, ending the day at 38.57 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a communication to clients, strategists at&nbsp;<strong>Citi<\/strong>&nbsp;noted that the investment strategies widely adopted by the market are now showing their limitations. \u201cPositioning metrics shed light on some of the recent movements in asset classes, providing insights into vulnerabilities during periods of high volatility. Japanese stocks were widely favored [&#8230;], and equities in Europe, the U.S., and emerging markets (excluding China) remain overweight,\u201d they commented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Citi highlighted that \u201ccarry trade\u201d positions\u2014where investors borrow at low interest rates in one country to invest in higher interest options elsewhere\u2014are particularly vulnerable, impacting currencies such as the Brazilian real, the Turkish lira, and the British pound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Amid these global tensions, local markets displayed a stark aversion to risk. At one point during the day, the exchange rate surged by 2.71% in Brazil, reaching R$5.8641 per dollar. Simultaneously, the Ibovespa plummeted to a low of 123,073 points, a drop of 2.20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, unexpectedly positive data from the U.S. services sector tempered fears of an imminent recession in the world\u2019s largest economy, leading to a partial recovery in market sentiment. Consequently, local assets rebounded from their lowest points of the day. By the close of trading, the exchange rate had risen by 0.56%, settling at R$5.7412 per dollar, marking a year-to-date gain of 18.31%. Meanwhile, the Ibovespa closed down slightly by 0.46%, at 125,270 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ruy Alves<\/strong>, global macro manager at&nbsp;<strong>Kinea<\/strong>, expressed confidence that there is no imminent recession on the horizon for the U.S., nor is there a likelihood of a sharp economic downturn. According to him, the recent monetary policy meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have led to a recalibration in risk perception among highly leveraged trades, contributing to the recent market corrections. \u201cIt\u2019s a misconception to think that the market consistently aligns with economic fundamentals. In reality, the market is shaped by supply and demand dynamics, which only sometimes coincide with the fundamentals,\u201d he explained.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The executive is optimistic about the potential for the Brazilian real to recover from its recent excessive fluctuations compared to its counterparts. \u201cThe real has room to correct some of the unusual movements it has experienced in recent months,\u201d observes Mr. Alves. He notes that despite the market turbulence, the currency has shown considerable resilience relative to its peers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Echoing this sentiment is S\u00e9rgio Goldenstein, chief strategist at&nbsp;<strong>Warren Investimentos<\/strong>. He suggests that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut of 0.5 percentage points should, in theory, benefit emerging market assets, particularly currencies. However, he points out that there is volatility stemming from the unwinding of carry trade operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe yen has risen about 10% in a month. Fortunately, this appears to be a cyclical trend. Notably, on Monday (5), the real managed to outperform other emerging market currencies. If this unwinding of positions has concluded, it suggests that the real is poised to adjust to a more favorable rate. Currently, the currency stands well above its equilibrium rate,\u201d Mr. Goldenstein explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He believes that an improvement in the exchange rate could significantly alleviate the Central Bank\u2019s inflation concerns. \u201cShould the Fed initiate rate cuts in September, combined with the cessation of \u2018carry trade\u2019 unwinding, there could be an opportunity for the real to appreciate, potentially reducing inflation projections. This scenario would enable the\u00a0<strong>Central Bank<\/strong>\u00a0to maintain the\u00a0<strong>Selic<\/strong>\u00a0[Brazil\u2019s benchmark interest rate] at a stable level over an extended period,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*<em>Por Gabriel Roca, Gabriel Caldeira, Maria Fernanda Salinet\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While services data offers relief, concerns about the U.S. economy persist 08\/06\/2024 Ruy Alves \u2014 Foto: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor Global markets&nbsp;plunged into panic amid mounting&nbsp;fears of a U.S. recession&nbsp;in Monday\u2019s trading session.&nbsp;Risk aversion&nbsp;gripped investors from the early hours, starting with Japan\u2019s stock market experiencing its second-worst day ever and continuing across global stock markets throughout the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25354,25355],"class_list":["post-90411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-recession-fears","tag-risk-aversion-2"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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