{"id":89588,"date":"2024-06-20T15:06:16","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T18:06:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=89588"},"modified":"2024-06-20T15:06:17","modified_gmt":"2024-06-20T18:06:17","slug":"central-bank-holds-interest-rate-at-10-5-despite-lulas-critique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-holds-interest-rate-at-10-5-despite-lulas-critique\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank holds interest rate at 10.5% despite Lula\u2019s critique"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em>Monetary Policy Committee remains non-committal on future rate decisions<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>06\/20\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/T--FKBm0ngbQ8pg5lr9mmjMRVUg=\/0x0:3840x2560\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/c\/z\/sJp4TqTpOz5BW64HNJwQ\/25042024-pzzb9188.jpg\" alt=\"Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Fabio Rodrigues-Pozzebom\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil\" style=\"width:654px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Fabio Rodrigues-Pozzebom\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a unanimous decision,&nbsp;<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/economy\/news\/2024\/06\/19\/lula-criticizes-central-bank-chief-ahead-of-policy-meeting.ghtml\">following criticism from President Lula<\/a>, the Monetary Policy Committee (<strong>COPOM<\/strong>) paused its recent series of interest rate cuts and maintained the&nbsp;<strong>Selic<\/strong>&nbsp;rate (Brazil\u2019s benchmark interest rate) at 10.5% per annum. This decision, halting the reduction sequence that began in August 2023 when the rate was 13.75%, was influenced by deteriorating inflation forecasts and diminishing market expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The decision emerged a day after President Lula leveled fresh criticism at Central Bank President&nbsp;<strong>Roberto Campos Neto<\/strong>, accusing him of being \u201cpolitically biased\u201d and asserting that Mr. Campos Neto\u2019s conduct was the only \u201cthing out of place\u201d in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In their statement, the board highlighted that the current global uncertainties, combined with a domestic environment \u201ccharacterized by persistent economic activities, escalating inflation projections, and unanchored expectations,\u201d necessitated a more cautious approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The committee refrained from making specific commitments regarding the future trajectory of the Selic rate, emphasizing its vigilant stance and asserting that \u201cany future adjustments\u201d will be guided by \u201ca firm commitment to converging inflation to the target.\u201d It also highlighted that monetary policy should remain contractionary \u201cfor a sufficient period at a level that consolidates both the disinflation process and the anchoring of expectations around their targets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent data from the Focus report indicates a worrying trend in inflation expectations; for 2024, the projection has risen to 3.96% after six consecutive increases, and for 2025, it stands at 3.80% following seven weeks of continuous rises. Since the last COPOM meeting, Mr. Campos Neto and Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo, the director of monetary policy, have both voiced their concerns over the escalating inflation expectations in public addresses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In light of these developments, the COPOM emphasized the need for \u201cserenity and moderation in the conduct of monetary policy.\u201d The current economic climate is described as one where disinflation is \u201cexpected to be slower,\u201d there is a \u201cwidening of the unanchoring of inflation expectations,\u201d and the global scenario remains \u201cchallenging.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The decision to maintain the Selic rate aligned with market expectations. A survey conducted by Valor, which included 132 financial institutions, revealed that only nine believed there was room for a 25-basis-point reduction, while the majority anticipated that the rate would remain unchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market observers also paid close attention to the&nbsp;<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/economy\/news\/2024\/06\/20\/analysis-lula-appointed-directors-agree-to-keep-interest-rate-stable.ghtml\">voting dynamics within the committee<\/a>&nbsp;following a split decision in May. At that time, Mr. Campos Neto, Carolina de Assis Barros, Diogo Guillen, Ot\u00e1vio Damaso, and Renato Gomes voted in favor of reducing the rate by 25 basis points. Conversely, directors appointed by the current administration, Ailton Santos, Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo, Paulo Picchetti, and Rodrigo Teixeira, voted for a more substantial cut of 50 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another point of interest was the ongoing debate on the balance of risks for inflation, which maintained factors pulling in both directions. In the minutes from the May meeting, it was noted that some members of the committee saw \u201cmerit\u201d in discussing an asymmetrical balance of risks skewed upwards, suggesting that upward pressures on inflation were deemed more significant than downward influences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Wednesday\u2019s announcement, the balance of risks was again described as symmetrical, with ongoing global inflationary pressures and persistent inflation in the services sector due to a tighter output gap\u2014indicative of less economic idleness\u2014highlighted as upward pressures. Conversely, the COPOM noted potential downward risks, including a pronounced slowdown in global economic activity and a more significant impact from synchronized monetary tightening on global inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The COPOM outlined two scenarios for its inflation forecasts. Under the reference scenario, which assumes the Focus interest rate trajectory and an exchange rate starting at $5.30 per dollar based on purchasing power parity, inflation is projected at 4% for 2024 and 3.4% for 2025. This is a slight increase from May\u2019s projections of 3.8% for this year and 3.3% for next year. For monitored prices, the projection was adjusted from 4.8% down to 4.4% in 2024, while the estimate for 2025 remains steady at 4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the alternative scenario, where the Selic rate remains unchanged throughout the relevant period extending into 2025, the projections are 4% for 2024 and 3.1% for 2025, against a target of 3% for both years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Gabriel Shinohara, Alex Ribeiro\u00a0\u2014 Bras\u00edlia and S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Monetary Policy Committee remains non-committal on future rate decisions 06\/20\/2024 Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Fabio Rodrigues-Pozzebom\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil In a unanimous decision,&nbsp;following criticism from President Lula, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) paused its recent series of interest rate cuts and maintained the&nbsp;Selic&nbsp;rate (Brazil\u2019s benchmark interest rate) at 10.5% per annum. This decision, halting the reduction [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25181,25182],"class_list":["post-89588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-central-bank-holds-interest-rate-at-10-5","tag-despite-lulas-critique"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Central Bank holds interest rate at 10.5% despite Lula\u2019s critique - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/central-bank-holds-interest-rate-at-10-5-despite-lulas-critique\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Central Bank holds interest rate at 10.5% despite Lula\u2019s critique - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Monetary Policy Committee remains non-committal on future rate decisions 06\/20\/2024 Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Fabio Rodrigues-Pozzebom\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil In a unanimous decision,&nbsp;following criticism from President Lula, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) paused its recent series of interest rate cuts and maintained the&nbsp;Selic&nbsp;rate (Brazil\u2019s benchmark interest rate) at 10.5% per annum. 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