{"id":89514,"date":"2024-06-17T16:32:51","date_gmt":"2024-06-17T19:32:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=89514"},"modified":"2024-06-17T16:32:53","modified_gmt":"2024-06-17T19:32:53","slug":"market-expects-end-to-interest-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/market-expects-end-to-interest-rate-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Market expects end to interest rate cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Only 9 of the 132 analysts surveyed by Valor anticipate a rate decrease in upcoming Central Bank decision<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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06\/17\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Laiz<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Laiz Carvalho \u2014 Foto: Nilani Goettems\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The outlook for Brazil\u2019s monetary policy indicates that the period of monetary easing may have concluded. The recent depreciation of the real and the uptick in inflation expectations, pushing the exchange rate to around R$5.4 per dollar, have solidified this perspective among financial market analysts. In the upcoming Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) meeting, scheduled for this Wednesday, the Selic rate (Brazil\u2019s benchmark interest rate) is expected to remain at 10.5% per year, as anticipated by the vast majority of market participants surveyed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Out of 132 institutions polled, only nine predict a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy interest rate this week. Furthermore, expectations for the end-of-year Selic rate do not foresee any cuts, with only 33 out of the surveyed institutions\u2014about a quarter\u2014anticipating a potential easing of rates in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent concerns over economic policy have significantly impacted Brazilian asset prices, with the exchange rate climbing from R$5.15 to nearly R$5.40 since the last COPOM meeting in May, and future interest rates have surged, occasionally crossing the 12% threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amid concerns about inflation\u2019s trajectory, following the Central Bank\u2019s split decision in its last meeting, medium-term inflation expectations appear to have become untethered. Inflation projections for the Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2025 in the Focus Bulletin have escalated from 3.64% to 3.78%, moving further from the target set by the Central Bank. Similarly, forecasts for 2026 have also increased from 3.50% to 3.60%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This trend was confirmed by a Valor survey, which highlighted a rise in the median inflation estimate for 2025 from 3.62% to 3.80% in its May edition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In light of these developments, market participants increasingly believe that the Central Bank may have no choice but to conclude its monetary easing cycle for the foreseeable future. Despite these challenges, there remains a consensus among surveyed experts for a unanimous decision within the Central Bank\u2019s policy-making body in their baseline scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe ended up moving towards the view that, in order to control the worsening of inflation expectations, the COPOM will have to pause [the cycle] and seek unanimity. The exchange rate has risen, inflation has shown some slightly more annoying signs, and activity remains strong,\u201d said Anna Reis, chief economist at Gap Asset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She anticipates that the COPOM\u2019s inflation projection for 2025 will drift further from its target due to deteriorating exchange rates and Focus survey expectations. \u201cWe think it should go from 3.3% to 3.4% or 3.5%. And the Central Bank should also revise its neutral interest rate projection to 5% in real terms in the Inflation Report, which would be another reason for this projection to approach 3.5%,\u201d she notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ms. Reis also highlights the uncertainty around how the collegiate body will communicate this policy shift. \u201cGiven that it\u2019s going to pause, it\u2019s expected that the statement will be hawkish. It will probably weigh heavy on expectations. What I will monitor is whether it will signal a pause in the cycle of cuts or treat it more as an interruption,\u201d she adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In BNP Paribas\u2019 view, the COPOM is unlikely to completely dismiss the possibility of rate cuts in 2024, positioning itself in a \u201cdata-dependent\u201d stance while aiming for convergence in expectations. They forecast the basic interest rate will remain at 10.5% by the year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI believe that the COPOM members\u2019 discourse will be more unified this time. The split decision brought a lot of volatility to the market, and from recent communications, we have seen the members trying to bring a more unified discourse,\u201d said Laiz Carvalho, BNP Paribas\u2019 economist for Brazil. She outlines two potential outcomes: a unanimous decision to hold the interest rate at 10.5% per year or a majority decision with 7 votes for a pause and 2 against.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite these efforts, Ms. Carvalho doesn\u2019t foresee an immediate effect on re-anchoring inflation expectations. She identifies three main drivers behind the rising projections for IPCA in 2025 and 2026. \u201cThe first involves increased inflationary pressures in 2024, potentially triggered by the tragic events in Rio Grande do Sul, global geopolitical tensions, or rising inflation abroad. The second factor is ongoing fiscal uncertainties. As I project a deficit of 0.7% in 2024 and 1% in 2025, contrasting a government projection of 0%, the fiscal risk is included in the inflation projections. This will only become clearer around August, with discussions for the 2025 Budget. The third factor, though not influential in my projections, is market concerns about a potentially more lenient stance from the Central Bank starting next year,\u201d said the BNP Paribas economist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, Claudio Ferraz, chief economist at BTG Pactual, also weighs in, warning that any dissent could severely destabilize inflation expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA possible lack of unanimity in the decision, even if it\u2019s not as extensive as the split we saw at the May meeting, would still significantly impact expectations negatively. In addition, doubts persist about the Central Bank\u2019s communications strategy. There\u2019s uncertainty about whether this meeting will end without clear future guidance or if it\u2019ll signal a pause in rate adjustments or something similar. I believe mentioning a pause now could exacerbate concerns, worsening expectations, even if the decision to pause is unanimous,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chief economist of XP Asset, Fernando Genta, also expects a score of 9 to 0 for the maintenance of the Selic but ponders that the race for the presidency of the monetary authority can be a risk. \u201cThe prospect of maintaining the Selic rate is quite strong, with a 9 to 0 vote expected, but there\u2019s an additional variable in play\u2014the race for the Central Bank presidency. Even though each director is independent, their aspirations might influence their votes. This doesn\u2019t imply that any director is indifferent to inflation concerns, but it does introduce some uncertainty into the voting dynamics.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other experts also noted the importance of watching how political reactions unfold post-decision, especially regarding criticism aimed at government-appointed members who might vote to pause the rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite some optimism among traders, the current economic climate poses challenges for lowering interest rates. Anna Reis of Gap Asset, however, sees potential for rate cuts later this year. She predicts, \u201cGiven our inflation projection of 3.7% for 2025 and a current Selic rate of 10.5%, we\u2019re looking at nearly 7% real interest. As the monetary policy horizon shifts towards 2026 in the latter half of the year, if the COPOM\u2019s inflation forecast begins to dip below 3%, we might see rate reductions resuming.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She anticipates two quarter-point cuts in the final COPOM meetings of the year, supported by expected monetary easing in the United States that could strengthen emerging market currencies. \u201cThe U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to start reducing interest rates in September. Even if this shift is delayed to November, the U.S. would be on the brink of making those cuts. This adjustment could enhance the second half of the year, potentially strengthening emerging market currencies,\u201d she notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BNP Paribas, on the other hand, expects rate cuts to be delayed until 2025, aligning with the global trend of easing monetary policies. The French bank predicts a total reduction of 100 basis points in the Selic rate next year, aiming for a target rate of 9.5% per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Por Gabriel Roca, Victor Rezende\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Only 9 of the 132 analysts surveyed by Valor anticipate a rate decrease in upcoming Central Bank decision 06\/17\/2024 Laiz Carvalho \u2014 Foto: Nilani Goettems\/Valor The outlook for Brazil\u2019s monetary policy indicates that the period of monetary easing may have concluded. The recent depreciation of the real and the uptick in inflation expectations, pushing the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25163],"class_list":["post-89514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-market-expects-end-to-interest-rate-cuts"],"yoast_head":"\nMarket expects end to interest rate cuts - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/market-expects-end-to-interest-rate-cuts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market expects end to interest rate cuts - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Only 9 of the 132 analysts surveyed by Valor anticipate a rate decrease in upcoming Central Bank decision 06\/17\/2024 Laiz Carvalho \u2014 Foto: Nilani Goettems\/Valor The outlook for Brazil\u2019s monetary policy indicates that the period of monetary easing may have concluded. 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