{"id":89464,"date":"2024-06-13T11:37:47","date_gmt":"2024-06-13T14:37:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=89464"},"modified":"2024-06-13T11:37:49","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T14:37:49","slug":"haddads-perceived-isolation-raises-fears-over-brazils-fiscal-health","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/haddads-perceived-isolation-raises-fears-over-brazils-fiscal-health\/","title":{"rendered":"Haddad\u2019s perceived isolation raises fears over Brazil\u2019s fiscal health"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Exchange rate hits R$5.4 per dollar, long-term interest rates exceed 12%, and Ibovespa reaches yearly low amid growing investor pessimism<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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06\/13\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Eduardo<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Eduardo Cotrim \u2014 Foto: Luciana Whitaker\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Domestic assets in Brazil suffered from a fresh wave of risk aversion, reaching their lowest levels of the year. Comments from President Lula, who suggested that increased tax collection and lower interest rates could narrow the primary deficit, failed to reassure market participants. Additionally, the reinstatement of a Provisional Presidential Decree that restricts PIS and Cofins (social taxes) credits fueled concerns that Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is losing influence within the government, contributing to a broadly pessimistic sentiment across financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The foreign exchange rate ended the day up 0.86% at R$5.4066\u2014its highest since January 4, 2023\u2014peaking at R$5.42. Future interest rates jumped, with the market now anticipating a sharp increase in the Selic policy interest rate by year-end. Meanwhile, Brazil\u2019s benchmark stock index Ibovespa fell below 120,000 points, dropping 1.4% to close at 119,936 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This heightened domestic anxiety contrasts starkly with the positive trends in global markets. In the U.S., lower-than-expected inflation data shifted focus away from immediate Federal Reserve actions, leading to a significant rally in U.S. stocks and a decline in both the dollar and Treasury yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBefore, we could even talk about U.S. interest rates, but now we have other reasons for our underperformance. What is at the heart of this is our fiscal issue,\u201d said Luis Garcia, CIO of SulAm\u00e9rica Investimentos, highlighting the need to confront domestic problems directly. \u201cIt\u2019s effortless to find out where the problem lies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Mr. Garcia\u2019s view, following market tensions that escalated since Friday, there was an expectation for President Lula to publicly support Minister Haddad by acknowledging the fiscal challenges yet reiterating a commitment to fiscal targets. \u201cWhat we saw today [Wednesday] was exactly the opposite. We saw the president saying that the country is going to grow and that, as a result, there will be more revenue and, therefore, no need to cut spending. It\u2019s the opposite of what was expected,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Lula, speaking at the FII Priority Summit, an international gathering of leaders and executives to discuss investment opportunities capable of providing sustainable growth to countries, said his administration is \u201cputting its house in order,\u201d including government accounts. \u201cThrough increased revenue and reduced interest rates, we can decrease the deficit without hindering public investment capabilities,\u201d the president stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThings are still hideous in the local market, and we\u2019re in a crisis. Several articles throughout the day said that Haddad was weakened, with friendly fire from within his own party trying to undermine him. Lula had the opportunity to defend the minister and his role in controlling public spending, but he didn\u2019t do it,\u201d said Luiz Eduardo Portella, partner and manager at Novus Capital. \u201cWe need Lula to come to Haddad\u2019s defense and prime his intention to control spending. Otherwise, we won\u2019t get out of this downward spiral,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Portella also commented on the broader international context affecting Brazil\u2019s market positioning; a few months ago, Brazil was in an environment where it was enough \u201cjust not to do anything stupid\u201d to be dragged along by a global improvement. \u201cWe seem to have hit a wall now. We need to do some homework and row in the right direction to get back in line with global markets,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This issue is compounded as global investors grow wary of emerging markets due to political changes in countries like Mexico, India, and South Africa. \u201cGlobal investors look at these countries and simply choose to reduce their exposure to emerging markets. Why would they look at emerging markets if the American market is still at all-time highs?\u201d Mr. Portella questioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A similar stance is upheld by Eduardo Cotrim, partner and manager at JGP, who shares insights into how his company successfully navigated recent market turbulence. He reveals their strategic positions, which included long bets on the dollar against the real and on rising long-term interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, the Interbank Deposit (DI) rate for January 2029 closed the session at 12.155%, marking the first time this year it crossed the 12% threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe emerging darlings were Mexico and India, where the elections disappointed. With the emerging class full of problems and doubts and the return on American fixed income at an all-time high, the notion that money could flow into Brazil is diminishing, particularly as there are significant concerns here regarding fiscal policy and uncertainties about the continuation of the fiscal framework,\u201d points out Mr. Cotrim. He sees the return of the PIS\/Cofins Provisional Presidential Decree as \u201cemblematic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHaddad\u2019s agenda proposes no spending cuts and leaves the entire bill to the private sector. Eventually, the business community feels the strain, and that time has come. The costs are simply too high,\u201d he explains, indicating general exhaustion with the government\u2019s approach to maintaining public expenditure without cutbacks. \u201cThis dissatisfaction stems from the excessive spending. The expenses are substantially high, and as budget discussions approach, we\u2019re yet to see a clear plan on fiscal management,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Cotrim reveals strategic shifts in his own investment approach, saying he has zeroed out positions in Brazilian assets and currently sees no appeal in the real or domestic interest rates. \u201cI have no appetite for it. We believe it\u2019s still too premature to place favorable bets. Numerous uncertainties are lingering, and these issues aren\u2019t unique to Brazil,\u201d emphasizes the JGP manager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also points to necessary changes in the global financial sentiment that could potentially improve the local economic outlook. \u201cThe high interest rates in the U.S. have set a high benchmark for foreign investors to allocate risk in emerging markets, diminishing the appeal of riskier emerging markets investments. This reluctance is evident in the bond auctions and other investment activities. Moreover, the rising skepticism in the market due to Lula\u2019s waning popularity and other local issues like the continuous disputes within COPOM and changes in Petrobras\u2019s leadership add to the prevailing uncertainty,\u201d states Mr. Cotrim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s important to note that in Wednesday\u2019s session, Petrobras\u2019s common shares fell by 2.1%, and preferred shares were down by 2.41%, following comments by the company\u2019s CEO, Magda Chambriard, indicating that the company will use \u201call resources to invest in Brazil.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSince the Bolsonaro administration, we\u2019ve seen numerous changes in the presidency of the company but minimal actual change within the company itself. We\u2019re observing these shifts in discourse cautiously, as this isn\u2019t the first time we\u2019ve encountered this scenario, yet we still believe it\u2019s mostly noise,\u201d stated Fernando Siqueira, head of research at Guide Investimentos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assessing the overall situation, he suggests adopting a more defensive stance until there\u2019s clearer visibility, particularly considering the perceived weakening of Minister Haddad. \u201cHis potential exit might create room for increased government spending,\u201d Mr. Siqueira commented. \u201cMoreover, President Lula\u2019s recent statements were poorly received as they suggest a continued misdiagnosis of the fiscal situation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leonardo Monoli, managing director of Azimut Brasil Wealth Management, also highlighted concerns in the financial landscape. He criticized President Lula\u2019s recent remarks for not addressing necessary spending cuts, which he believes significantly impacts market sentiment. \u201cThere is never any discussion on the spending side, but only on the side of increasing revenue,\u201d Mr. Monoli noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re going to have a complicated second half of the year, and my concern now is that we\u2019re going into this second part of the year very badly positioned,\u201d he remarked, referencing the Federal Reserve\u2019s indications of only one interest rate cut this year. \u201cWe\u2019ve wasted a first half of the year that is seasonally favorable for flows. The government has to act, or we could have a problem. We\u2019re heading for it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Por Victor Rezende, Matheus Prado, Gabriel Roca, Arthur Cagliari, Augusto Decker\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Exchange rate hits R$5.4 per dollar, long-term interest rates exceed 12%, and Ibovespa reaches yearly low amid growing investor pessimism 06\/13\/2024 Eduardo Cotrim \u2014 Foto: Luciana Whitaker\/Valor Domestic assets in Brazil suffered from a fresh wave of risk aversion, reaching their lowest levels of the year. Comments from President Lula, who suggested that increased tax […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25155,25154],"class_list":["post-89464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-fears-over-brazils-fiscal-health","tag-haddads-perceived-isolation"],"yoast_head":"\nHaddad\u2019s perceived isolation raises fears over Brazil\u2019s fiscal health - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/haddads-perceived-isolation-raises-fears-over-brazils-fiscal-health\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Haddad\u2019s perceived isolation raises fears over Brazil\u2019s fiscal health - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Exchange rate hits R$5.4 per dollar, long-term interest rates exceed 12%, and Ibovespa reaches yearly low amid growing investor pessimism 06\/13\/2024 Eduardo Cotrim \u2014 Foto: Luciana Whitaker\/Valor Domestic assets in Brazil suffered from a fresh wave of risk aversion, reaching their lowest levels of the year. 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