{"id":89439,"date":"2024-06-12T11:47:19","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T14:47:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=89439"},"modified":"2024-06-12T11:47:21","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T14:47:21","slug":"inflation-rises-above-expectations-in-may-driven-by-services-floods","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/inflation-rises-above-expectations-in-may-driven-by-services-floods\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation rises above expectations in May driven by services, floods"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
With greater pressure from food in the South, benchmark index rises 0.46% in comparison to April<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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12\/06\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Marcela<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Marcela Rocha \u2014 Foto: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), Brazil\u2019s official inflation index, interrupted a sequence of more favorable readings and rose again above expectations in May. The indicator brings the first impacts of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul on prices, as well as reinforcing economists\u2019 discomfort with metrics linked to the heated economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IPCA rose from 0.38% in April to 0.46% in May, statistics agency IBGE reported on Tuesday. The result was above the median of 0.41% collected by Valor Data and at the ceiling of forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 12 months, the IPCA gained momentum again, from 3.69% to 3.93%, after seven decelerating readings. The rise was already expected, but it was also stronger than the median forecast of 3.87%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI didn\u2019t like what I saw and ended up changing the [IPCA] figure for the year,\u201d said F\u00e1bio Rom\u00e3o, an economist at LCA Consultores, who adjusted his projection to 3.9% from 3.7% in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

J.P. Morgan also revised its IPCA projections after the last reading, to 4% from 3.7% this year and to 3.7% from 3.5% in 2025. The new figures seem more consistent with \u201cthe combination of a tight labor market, rising inflation expectations, a more depreciated exchange rate, and higher food prices,\u201d wrote economist Vinicius Moreira and the bank\u2019s chief economist for Brazil, Cassiana Fernandez, in a report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five of the nine classes of expenditure registered a slowdown in inflation between April and May: food and beverages (to 0.62% from 0.70%); household goods (to -0.53% from -0.26%); clothing (to 0.50% from 0.55%); health and personal care (to 0.69% from 1.16%); and communication (to 0.14% from 0.48%). On the other hand, there was an acceleration in housing (to 0.67% from -0.01%); transportation (to 0.44% from 0.14%); personal expenses (to 0.22% from 0.10%); and education (to 0.09% from 0.05%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, inflation in the Porto Alegre metropolitan region rose to 0.87% in May from 0.64% in April. This was the highest rate among the 10 metropolitan regions and six cities monitored by the IBGE. Remote price collection (by telephone or internet) in the region rose to around 65% from the historical standard of 20% in May, according to Andr\u00e9 Almeida, the IBGE manager responsible for the IPCA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IPCA would have risen less, by 0.42%, if the index had been reweighted without taking the state into account, said XP economist Alexandre Maluf. Mr. Almeida explains that the institute does not estimate the IPCA without the influence of one region or another, unlike the sub-items, for which it calculates the individual influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main contribution (0.57 percentage point) to inflation in Rio Grande do Sul came from food prices at home, especially fresh food, dairy products, poultry, and wheat-related products, according to Mr. Maluf. In the general IPCA, rice rose 1.47% in May, \u201ceven faster than indicated by the collections,\u201d said Terra Investimentos in a report. In April, there was a deflation of 1.93%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The effect of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul has started to show up in inflation measured by the IPCA, especially in foodstuffs, but as the heavy rains affected production chains in general, consequences for industrial goods or services could still arise, said Mr. Almeida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although it slowed down compared to April, the food and beverages group exerted the greatest upward influence on the IPCA in May, by 0.13 percentage point, or 28.2% of the increase in the index. \u201cDespite the slowdown, the rate recorded is seasonally high,\u201d said Mr. Rom\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

XP\u2019s Mr. Maluf says that, in general terms, the acceleration of the IPCA in May, compared to April, was due to more volatile items, such as airfare (5.91% from -12.09%), some industrial goods (0.29% from 0.21%) and monitored items (defined by contract or public agency), such as energy (0.94% from -0.46%). Also contributing were some services linked to the economic cycle, such as personal services (0.31% from 0.19%) and food away from home (0.50% from 0.39%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, the 0.45% rise in gasoline was lower than expected by economists. Fuels (0.45% from 1.74%) and food at home (0.66% from 0.81%), especially fresh foods (0.99% from 3.66%), moderated the rise in May, compared to April. The problem is that economists were expecting a much smaller increase for food at home\u20140.37% for Terra and 0.44% for XP, for example. The result was \u201cmuch higher\u201d and \u201cwith generalized upward surprises,\u201d said Mr. Maluf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marcela Rocha, chief economist at Principal Claritas, highlights the 0.29% rise in industrial goods, above her expectation of 0.27%. \u201cIt\u2019s not such a significant surprise, but in the annualized and seasonally adjusted quarterly moving average, it went from a fall of 0.1% to a rise of 0.4%, which is still super low, but it\u2019s another indicator that the process is no longer so much about favorable news,\u201d she said. The seasonally adjusted annualized three-month moving average is a way of smoothing out monthly movements, but still capturing the trend \u201cat the end.\u201d \u201cUnlike the last two months, these underlying measures performed worse,\u201d said Ms. Rocha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The greater-than-expected advance in industrial goods, driven by personal hygiene products and new cars, according to Mr. Maluf, contributed to the average of the cores (measures to smooth out volatile items) monitored by the Central Bank rising 0.39% in May, from 0.26% in April, matching MCM Consultores\u2019s expectation and above XP\u2019s forecast (0.34%), for example. All five core inflation rates accelerated compared to April, say Victor Beyruti and Yuri Alves, economists with Guide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over 12 months, the average core inflation rate accelerated to 3.55% from 3.53%, according to MCM. \u201cIt showed higher inflation again for the first time since June 2022,\u201d Mr. Beyruti and Mr. Alves wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the three-month moving average, the cores went to 3.2% in May from 3.1% in April, \u201cdeviating from the downward trend seen in previous months,\u201d said Mr. Maluf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Services inflation accelerated to 0.40% in May from 0.05% in April, largely due to the rise in airfares, the first in the year. More relevant to economic analysis, underlying services rose from 0.33% in April to 0.41% in May, matching MCM\u2019s forecast and above the expectations of Principal Claritas (0.32%) and XP (0.36%). The quarterly moving average rose to 5.1% from 4.9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s still a level below that of the beginning of the year, when the services figures came in well above expectations and reached 5.6% in March, by this metric. But it shows a qualitative part of inflation that is not as favorable as had been observed and reinforces the Central Bank\u2019s scenario of caution and concern,\u201d said Ms. Rocha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labor-intensive services, another measure closely monitored by the Central Bank, slowed to 0.38% in May from 0.53% in April, \u201cundoubtedly the only (albeit important) relief in the opening,\u201d said the Terra team. The news, they say, would be more impressive if it happened in a context of a slowdown in the job market, which is not the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn the midst of a below-equilibrium unemployment rate, accelerating wages, and a stagnating participation rate, we will need more to convince us that there is a new trend underway,\u201d write Jo\u00e3o Maur\u00edcio Rosal, Terra\u2019s chief economist, and economists Homero Guizzo and Lu\u00eds Gustavo Bettoni. On the quarterly moving average, labor-intensive services are at 6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The diffusion index, which measures the proportion of items rising in the basket, rose from 57% in April, to 57.3% in May, according to Valor Data. The dispersion \u201ccame in flat,\u201d says Mr. Rom\u00e3o of LCA, noting that it not only exceeded that of April but was also higher than that of May last year. The same goes for underlying services. \u201cIt\u2019s a nuisance, a red flag,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For June, inflation forecasts are around 0.3%. But economists expect food prices to rise even more, mainly because of the floods in the South region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Por Ana\u00efs Fernandes, Lucianne Carneiro\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo, Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With greater pressure from food in the South, benchmark index rises 0.46% in comparison to April 12\/06\/2024 Marcela Rocha \u2014 Foto: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor The Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), Brazil\u2019s official inflation index, interrupted a sequence of more favorable readings and rose again above expectations in May. The indicator brings the first impacts of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25145,25000,25144],"class_list":["post-89439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-driven-by-services","tag-floods","tag-inflation-rises-above-expectations-in-may"],"yoast_head":"\nInflation rises above expectations in May driven by services, floods - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/inflation-rises-above-expectations-in-may-driven-by-services-floods\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation rises above expectations in May driven by services, floods - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With greater pressure from food in the South, benchmark index rises 0.46% in comparison to April 12\/06\/2024 Marcela Rocha \u2014 Foto: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor The Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), Brazil\u2019s official inflation index, interrupted a sequence of more favorable readings and rose again above expectations in May. 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