{"id":89377,"date":"2024-06-06T11:09:20","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T14:09:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=89377"},"modified":"2024-06-06T11:09:23","modified_gmt":"2024-06-06T14:09:23","slug":"challenges-ahead-for-drawing-investors-to-sao-paulos-train-projects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/challenges-ahead-for-drawing-investors-to-sao-paulos-train-projects\/","title":{"rendered":"Challenges ahead for drawing investors to S\u00e3o Paulo\u2019s train projects"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Engineering risks, fiscal constraints, and future sector auctions pose hurdles for public-private partnerships<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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\"Rafael<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Rafael Benini \u2014 Foto: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The package of metro and urban train concessions in S\u00e3o Paulo is generating interest in the market, but analysts consulted by Valor see significant challenges in moving these projects forward. The obstacles to attracting investors include high engineering risks, fiscal limitations for offering guarantees in public-private partnerships (PPPs), and competition from other infrastructure auctions scheduled in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S\u00e3o Paulo state government auctioned the first PPP of the package in February this year, the Intercity Train (TIC) between the capital city and Campinas. The auction attracted only one bidder\u2014the consortium formed by Comporte and China\u2019s CRRC. The contract was signed last Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government\u2019s package includes at least 13 other projects under study, with a potential investment of R$130 billion. The most advanced initiative is the PPP for lines 11-Coral, 12-Safira, and 13-Jade, expected to have its tender launched in September and the auction held in the fourth quarter. The projected investment is R$10 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three more PPPs may be launched in 2025, according to the government\u2019s schedule. One is the TIC Oeste, a new 100-kilometer line connecting S\u00e3o Paulo to Sorocaba in 60 minutes, with a projected investment of R$10 billion. The second project includes the existing Line 10-Turquesa and the new Line 14-\u00d4nix, with an estimated investment of R$18 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also a PPP to build Lines 19-Celeste and 20-Rosa of the metro. Studies are still evaluating the feasibility of this mega-project, which is expected to require R$45 billion. To achieve this, the government is considering forming a lot with existing lines\u2014Lines 1-Azul, 2-Verde, 3-Vermelha, and 15-Prata are being studied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts anticipate new investors will emerge, but the market remains challenging. \u201cRail mobility is a complex sector, especially with new lines. Contracts require high investment and face geological, expropriation, and interference risks,\u201d said Bruno Aur\u00e9lio, a partner at Demarest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that mobility contracts are generally PPPs requiring public investment, fiscal issues and the structuring of payment guarantees also need attention, noted Guilherme Quintella, president of EDLP (Esta\u00e7\u00e3o da Luz Participa\u00e7\u00f5es), which conducted studies for various intercity train projects for the S\u00e3o Paulo government in 2012. \u201cThere must be fiscal security. This is the biggest challenge. The projects depend on this funding to advance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, the long-term nature of the package introduces continuity risk, said David Wong, a director at A&M (Alvarez & Marsal). \u201cThe plans and timelines make sense. The challenge is attracting investors and ensuring that government changes don\u2019t negatively impact projects, which is common in infrastructure,\u201d he said. He also noted the need for multimodal integration with other mobility structures for route feasibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Today, a concern for both the government and the market is to broaden the range of investors in the sector, which is less developed than others like highways. \u201cThere are few specialized groups with experience to ensure the business plan is delivered,\u201d said Jos\u00e9 Virg\u00edlio Lopes Enei, who heads the infrastructure area at Machado Meyer law firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the challenges, analysts believe that the S\u00e3o Paulo government\u2019s package is attracting new interest in the sector. \u201cA single project struggles to attract new entrants because participating in an auction requires investing tens of millions of reais. But with a program, there\u2019s more incentive for investors since losing one bid means there are other opportunities,\u201d said Mr. Enei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently, besides the groups already operating in the sector\u2014mainly CCR, Acciona, and the Comporte-CRRC consortium\u2014analysts suggest that foreign groups, investment funds, and even highway operators already active in Brazil could enter the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rafael Benini, S\u00e3o Paulo\u2019s secretary of partnerships and investments, said the state government has seen market interest in the projects. \u201cPeople are conducting technical visits and accessing the data room to review information,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A significant change expected to increase competition is a tax incentive for subcontracting. This allows the winning group to subcontract another company for line operations, construction, and rolling stock supply. Currently, subcontracting is possible but suffers from double taxation, which the government plans to offset in the short term. \u201cWith the tax reform, this will be resolved in the future. For now, we will reimburse the company for the double taxation until 2028,\u201d Mr. Benini said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Renato Kloss, a partner at VAK Advogados law firm, emphasized the importance of diversifying the profile of interested parties to increase competition. \u201cIt\u2019s essential to consider that the bidder need not be the operator. The winner can contract later. Changing this opens opportunities for other interested parties, such as investment funds,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Por Ta\u00eds Hirata\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Engineering risks, fiscal constraints, and future sector auctions pose hurdles for public-private partnerships 06\/06\/2024 Rafael Benini \u2014 Foto: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor The package of metro and urban train concessions in S\u00e3o Paulo is generating interest in the market, but analysts consulted by Valor see significant challenges in moving these projects forward. The obstacles to attracting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25128,25127],"class_list":["post-89377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-challenges-ahead-for-drawing-investors","tag-sao-paulos-train-projects"],"yoast_head":"\nChallenges ahead for drawing investors to S\u00e3o Paulo\u2019s train projects - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/challenges-ahead-for-drawing-investors-to-sao-paulos-train-projects\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Challenges ahead for drawing investors to S\u00e3o Paulo\u2019s train projects - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Engineering risks, fiscal constraints, and future sector auctions pose hurdles for public-private partnerships 06\/06\/2024 Rafael Benini \u2014 Foto: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor The package of metro and urban train concessions in S\u00e3o Paulo is generating interest in the market, but analysts consulted by Valor see significant challenges in moving these projects forward. 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