{"id":89310,"date":"2024-06-04T12:16:14","date_gmt":"2024-06-04T15:16:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=89310"},"modified":"2024-06-04T12:16:17","modified_gmt":"2024-06-04T15:16:17","slug":"robust-jobs-market-exerts-broad-pressure-on-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/robust-jobs-market-exerts-broad-pressure-on-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Robust jobs market exerts broad pressure on inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Ita\u00fa analysis reveals that low unemployment impacts more than just labor-intensive sectors<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>06\/04\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/ugemITfyR-RuJjk3714MFVF4eMM=\/0x0:800x839\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/9\/C\/hn6bN1QH2HU8tv6LXLpQ\/fotojulia.jpg\" alt=\"Julia Gottlieb \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o\" style=\"width:608px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Julia Gottlieb \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil\u2019s robust jobs market has driven consumer prices measured by IPCA, affecting the entire basket of goods and services, not just the labor-intensive ones. This finding comes from a study by Ita\u00fa Unibanco, indicating that wages will continue to influence prices in the coming quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts typically observe the behavior of the services sector to gauge how the labor market and wages impact inflation. They particularly focus on two core measures established by the Central Bank: labor-intensive services (including activities like medical and dental services, beauty services, and domestic workers) and services sensitive to idle capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, these measures account for only 7% and 10% of the IPCA basket, respectively, representing only 17% and 28% within the services category. IPCA, the Portuguese acronym for Extended Consumer Price Index, is Brazil\u2019s official inflation index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe issue with these metrics is that, since they are defined by exclusion, you end up looking at a group with a small weight within the IPCA,\u201d said Julia Gottlieb, an economist at Ita\u00fa Unibanco. \u201cWe aimed to understand, more broadly, all the pressures coming from the labor market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To achieve this, Ita\u00fa developed a labor intensity indicator for every 377 items in the IPCA, using data from the statistics agency IBGE. This indicator considers companies\u2019 wages and social contributions spending, the product\u2019s weight within its sector, and production costs. The IPCA was then reweighted based on each product\u2019s labor intensity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As expected, this exercise increases the weight of services within the new indicator\u2014to 53.4% from 35.5%. Personal expenses (20.8% from 10.1%), and education (14.9% from 5.9%) stand out among the categories with the most significant increases. Conversely, food and beverages (11.6% from 21%), lodging (10.1% from 15.4%), and gasoline (0.4% from 5%) see the most notable declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reweighted index indicates that labor-intensive products are experiencing more intense price adjustments than the overall IPCA. While the IPCA recorded a 3.7% rise in the 12 months ending in April, the reweighted index increased by 5% over the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ms. Gottlieb said that the alternative index has been above the IPCA since the second half of 2022, coinciding with the unemployment rate dropping below 9%. This is the level Ita\u00fa considers the equilibrium unemployment rate, beyond which the labor market starts exerting upward pressure on inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As measured by the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad Cont\u00ednua), the unemployment rate fell to 7.5% in the three months ending in April, down from 7.9% in the previous three months. This result was below the median analyst expectation of 7.7%. Meanwhile, the average real income grew by 0.8% in the quarter ending in April and 4.7% compared to the same period in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The influence of the labor market on inflation dynamics is a recurring subject in speeches by Central Bank officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The minutes from the latest Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) meeting show that officials discussed the issue but did not reach a consensus on the extent to which wage increases\u2014stemming not only from productivity gains but also the improved bargaining power of workers in a stronger job market\u2014are affecting prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe tried to dissect each labor component in each service category to see if there is a correlation between wages and inflation. There does seem to be some pressure, but it\u2019s very embryonic and not something we can clearly demonstrate,\u201d said Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto at an event organized by Grupo Lide on the 27th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, Ita\u00fa expects the labor market to continue pressuring prices. Running a model based on the reweighted index and projections for inflation inertia and unemployment rate shows that the indicator remains above the services IPCA in the coming quarters, ending the year with a 12-month increase of 6.03%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t expect the unemployment rate to rise significantly\u2014it should remain below 9% this year\u2014so the indicator will also stay pressured,\u201d Ms. Gottlieb said. \u201cIt\u2019s also worth noting that it hasn\u2019t worsened. Marginally, it even shows some slight moderation, partly helped by the behavior of inertia. However, we assess that this exercise further supports the Central Bank\u2019s cautious stance on monetary policy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Marcelo Osakabe\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ita\u00fa analysis reveals that low unemployment impacts more than just labor-intensive sectors 06\/04\/2024 Julia Gottlieb \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o Brazil\u2019s robust jobs market has driven consumer prices measured by IPCA, affecting the entire basket of goods and services, not just the labor-intensive ones. This finding comes from a study by Ita\u00fa Unibanco, indicating that wages will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25109,25108],"class_list":["post-89310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-pressure-on-inflation","tag-robust-jobs-market"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Robust jobs market exerts broad pressure on inflation - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/robust-jobs-market-exerts-broad-pressure-on-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Robust jobs market exerts broad pressure on inflation - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ita\u00fa analysis reveals that low unemployment impacts more than just labor-intensive sectors 06\/04\/2024 Julia Gottlieb \u2014 Foto: Divulga\u00e7\u00e3o Brazil\u2019s robust jobs market has driven consumer prices measured by IPCA, affecting the entire basket of goods and services, not just the labor-intensive ones. 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