{"id":88980,"date":"2024-05-22T10:12:40","date_gmt":"2024-05-22T13:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88980"},"modified":"2024-05-22T10:12:42","modified_gmt":"2024-05-22T13:12:42","slug":"foreign-investor-maintains-a-wait-and-see-approach-in-brazil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/foreign-investor-maintains-a-wait-and-see-approach-in-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"Foreign investor maintains a wait-and-see approach in Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>More dismayed than optimistic tone marked conversations between companies, banks, and funds at a series of events in New York<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>05\/22\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/HxsNPLqfnEU6PHNxMYIMy-Ry00Q=\/0x0:1000x1358\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/h\/u\/N7FvNaTWARXbVAU8yWgQ\/flavio-souza-do-itau-bba-silvia-costanti-valor.png\" alt=\"Flavio Souza \u2014 Foto: Silvia Costanti\/Valor\" style=\"width:410px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Flavio Souza \u2014 Foto: Silvia Costanti\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Foreign investors are putting Brazil on hold for now. In addition to local and global macroeconomic issues, the country has its own homework to do to avoid losing this capital flow for a long time\u2014or the money will be reallocated to emerging markets like India and Mexico. This was the overall tone, more dismayed than optimistic, of the conversations between companies, banks, and global institutional investors throughout the last week, during an extensive Brazilian agenda in New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe companies are wrapping up the first-quarter earnings cycle with results in line with expectations, but on the investor side, we notice a wait-and-see attitude due to issues related to Brazil or issues beyond Brazil. Naturally, the interest rate environment in the United States is significant, as well as the recent revisions regarding the behavior of interest rates in the Brazilian market,\u201d summarizes Flavio Souza, CEO of Ita\u00fa BBA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bank brought together 150 businesspeople and 500 investors for four days of debates. According to the BBA\u2019s leader, there was a change in tone compared to last year, when there was a challenging scenario with a new government and credit events, but with a perspective of good opportunities ahead. Now, investors looking for liquid assets have shown more nervous behavior, without reallocating the capital they are withdrawing from local assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere is still a lot of noise in Brazil on the fiscal side,\u201d said Sergio Fischer, CEO of LOG, a logistics company controlled by the Menin family, after rounds of talks with foreigners. In April, the federal government included a revision of the fiscal target for 2025 in the Budget Guidelines Act, projecting a result lower than initially discussed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Fabio Barbosa, CEO of Natura, the transition at the Central Bank also contributes to the tension among foreign investors. Roberto Campos Neto will leave the presidency of the monetary authority at the turn of the year and, in the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), the board showed a split between directors appointed by the Lula administration and those remaining from the Bolsonaro administration, raising doubts about inflation tolerance in the next cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhat disappoints me the most is seeing that Brazil is not on the map, not in the focus of investors. There is a lot of concern about the uncertainties we have, such as the fiscal issue, greater or lesser interference in the economy, what will be the trend of interest rates, and the flexibility of the Central Bank,\u201d said Mr. Barbosa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his view, these issues add to the fact that Brazil is poorly positioned globally. \u201cAs interest rates in the United States are very high, the risk appetite has decreased, and Brazil today represents a risk. This disappoints me because we are better than the image that appears, better in environmental issues, economic growth. The country will grow around 2.5%, has inflation under control, institutions functioning reasonably, but that is not the perception we convey,\u201d he said. \u201cWe convey the perception of uncertainty that some of these positive points may not be there in the future. And that makes us miss investment opportunities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It was precisely during the meetings promoted by Brazilian companies in the U.S. market that President Lula decided to finally replace the CEO of Petrobras, appointing Magda Chambriard, an executive with a more \u201cexpansionist\u201d profile. The subject inevitably invaded the closed-door meetings. \u201cPetrobras is Brazil\u2019s largest company by market capitalization, so it is natural that it is always a focus of monitoring and attention. When there is a change in the command, and this was news all day, it becomes the subject of questions and inquiries by investors trying to understand the scenario,\u201d said Mr. Souza from Ita\u00fa BBA. \u201cIt\u2019s part of a broader context related to the perception of the level of government influence in the companies it participates in, the economy in general, and how this relates to fiscal, economic policy, and from the perspective of returns.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to him, for equity investors, this context influences more immediate behavior. However, some investors see an entry point in Brazilian stocks, as price-to-earnings multiples are below the historical average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At Ita\u00fa, updated monetary projections now indicate the Selic policy rate closing the year at 10.25% per year. The bank still expects a window for initial public offerings in the fourth quarter but mainly counts on secondary offerings for stock market activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cMexico is clearly much more active, and India is super strong as well. The country cannot stay out of the flow for too long; it has to more actively return to being a desirable place, capable of attracting foreign investors,\u201d said Cristiano Guimar\u00e3es, head of corporate and investment banking at Ita\u00fa BBA. \u201cIt is necessary to create some momentum, a perception that the market will move forward and unlock,\u201d adds the institution\u2019s CEO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Souza emphasizes that strategic investors will continue to look at sectors such as energy, agriculture, and pulp and paper. The bank advised the sale of AES\u2019s local subsidiary but does not see a trend in this case. \u201cInfrastructure continues to attract investors; it is the market where project finance effectively works, with long-term capital for project development,\u201d said Mr. Guimar\u00e3es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sustainability and climate finance are also definitely on the bank\u2019s, investors\u2019, and companies\u2019 long-term agenda\u2014especially after the catastrophe in Rio Grande do Sul, which highlighted the urgency of the issue and the need to include this risk in business and public management models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere is more than objective evidence of climate change and its implications beyond the humanitarian issue, which is always the most relevant, but also in business. In our operation, we see this so clearly that the entire climate finance agenda of the Ita\u00fa Unibanco group, which has always been on the broader sustainability agenda, is now part of Ita\u00fa BBA\u2019s activities because we understand that it has ceased to be a corporate citizenship agenda and has become a business agenda,\u201d said Ita\u00fa BBA\u2019s CEO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the bank\u2019s initiatives was a financing commitment of up to R$400 billion for sectors with a positive impact on ESG criteria by 2025. \u201cWe have already exceeded 90% and will reach the goal 18 months ahead of our ambition, so it will be updated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Maria Lu\u00edza Filgueiras\u00a0\u2014 New York<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>More dismayed than optimistic tone marked conversations between companies, banks, and funds at a series of events in New York 05\/22\/2024 Flavio Souza \u2014 Foto: Silvia Costanti\/Valor Foreign investors are putting Brazil on hold for now. In addition to local and global macroeconomic issues, the country has its own homework to do to avoid losing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25051,25052],"class_list":["post-88980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-foreign-investor","tag-wait-and-see"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Foreign investor maintains a wait-and-see approach in Brazil - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/foreign-investor-maintains-a-wait-and-see-approach-in-brazil\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Foreign investor maintains a wait-and-see approach in Brazil - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"More dismayed than optimistic tone marked conversations between companies, banks, and funds at a series of events in New York 05\/22\/2024 Flavio Souza \u2014 Foto: Silvia Costanti\/Valor Foreign investors are putting Brazil on hold for now. 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