{"id":88951,"date":"2024-05-21T09:29:06","date_gmt":"2024-05-21T12:29:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88951"},"modified":"2024-05-21T09:29:08","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T12:29:08","slug":"economic-outlook-becomes-murkier-for-2024-and-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/economic-outlook-becomes-murkier-for-2024-and-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic outlook becomes murkier for 2024 and 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Expectations for GDP, inflation worsen due to floods in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil\u2019s fiscal situation, U.S. interest rates<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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05\/21\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"S\u00e9rgio<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

S\u00e9rgio Vale \u2014 Foto: Claudio Belli\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A series of negative news and emerging risks have formed a mix that has worsened economic agents\u2019 expectations for the economy in 2024 and 2025. The latest sign of this process is the market\u2019s median projection for 2024 GDP growth, which fell for the first time in almost a year this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts say the scenario pressures the Central Bank to adopt a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts. However, some also see these movements as somewhat exaggerated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the Central Bank\u2019s Focus survey, the market\u2019s median projection for 2024 economic growth dropped to 2.05% from 2.09%. This is the first decline in the projection for this year since June 16 of last year, when it fell to 1.20% from 1.27%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the median for Brazil\u2019s official inflation index IPCA rose to 3.80% from 3.76%. For 2025, inflation expectations increased to 3.74% from 3.66%. The median projection for the Selic policy rate rose to 10% by the end of 2024 from 9.75%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis worsening of expectations is not new. It started with the changing outlook for U.S. interest rate cuts and growing concerns about Brazil\u2019s fiscal scenario. But it was accelerated by the rift within the Central Bank\u2019s board at the last Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) meeting and now by the tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d said S\u00e9rgio Vale, chief economist at consultancy MB Associados. \u201cThis last factor directly impacts growth prospects for 2024 and also inflation, as analysts are already incorporating short-term shocks in food prices. These events have halted the previously improving projections for economic activity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The scenario is almost a \u201cperfect storm\u201d\u2014but, according to him, \u201cone created by the government, which bears significant responsibility for the poorly calibrated fiscal outcome since the fiscal framework, exemplified by the change in the primary target for 2025,\u201d he said. \u201cThis spills over into problems like the one in Rio Grande do Sul, where the situation demands a level of aid that public finances are not prepared to provide.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is indeed an environment of deteriorating expectations, which became more evident with the Focus survey. It was the third consecutive week of an increase in the IPCA median for next year, which is the Central Bank\u2019s main focus,\u201d said Silvio Campos Neto, a senior economist and partner at Tend\u00eancias Consultoria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also highlighted the split within the Central Bank\u2019s board regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, which has crystallized doubts that have existed since the end of last year about how the monetary authority will act with the change in leadership. \u201cIt is more than natural for the market to be uncertain due to high political signals and pressures towards a more interventionist approach, as seen in the Petrobras leadership change episode or attempts to boost economic activity using state-run companies in a context of low economic slack.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Fabio Rom\u00e3o, a senior economist at LCA Consultores, calculates that the recent worsening of projections for 2024 and 2025 inflation in the Focus survey is concentrated on free prices within the IPCA. While the 2024 projection rose to 3.72% from 3.67%, the 2025 projection increased to 3.68% from 3.57%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe believe this increase in expectations for 2024 and 2025 is related to currency depreciation and uncertainties in the pricing of certain food items\u2014following climatic events in the South,\u201d he said. The consultancy raised its estimate for food-at-home inflation in 2024 to 4.5% from 3.9% but kept the 2025 estimate at 4.9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For 2025, Mr. Rom\u00e3o expects a moderate acceleration in regulated prices after the municipal elections. Another source of pressure could be the resumed rise in industrial goods prices, which have been contained since 2023, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Silvia Matos, coordinator of the Macro survey at the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre), said that the current expectation scenario calls into question the quality of future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen the fiscal policy is more expansionary, the economy ends up with much higher real interest rates to keep inflation lower. This signals a higher risk premium, and the cost of rolling over public debt also rises. It\u2019s the worst of both worlds\u2014high disinflation costs in terms of activity,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given this scenario, economists believe the monetary authority will need to be more stringent in its message about combating inflation, which may include rethinking the final stretch of the interest rate cut cycle. However, they also note that uncertainties surrounding the Central Bank\u2019s leadership change hamper this process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cToday, there is a fear that the Central Bank will lower its guard on reducing interest rates. If this concern grows, medium- and long-term interest curves will rise significantly. This increases debt costs and affects economic activity because the cost for companies to invest will be higher,\u201d said Mr. Campos Neto, with Tend\u00eancias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite predominantly negative news, some urge caution in analyzing the worsening expectations scenario. One reason is that, although uncertainties have increased, current economic indicators still allow for some optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI believe some concerns are natural at this stage of the cycle, in which growth comes more from demand, particularly from a labor market that continues to surprise and raises questions about future inflation behavior,\u201d said Cristiano Oliveira, chief economist at Banco Pine. \u201cBut at the same time, I see some exaggeration. There seems to be a contradiction in increasing expectations for both the Selic rate and the IPCA in the medium term. Even working with a higher real interest rate than the Central Bank, as we do, it is only logical to assume that only one side [inflation or interest rates] will be correct, not both.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Mr. Oliveira, the floods in Rio Grande do Sul will have a greater impact on activity than on inflation. The unanchoring attributed to food prices may disappear, as it is temporary and other prices remain controlled. However, the damage to activity will be more significant, he said. \u201cMuch is expected from the fiscal stimulus, but I have my doubts. We must consider that even the government\u2019s aid of R$5,100 [per affected family] is small to recover entire lives and businesses that have been closed.\u201d The market reacts to uncertainties and is right to demand a higher premium for it, but it is not necessarily correct about what will happen, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Por Marcelo Osakabe, Mars\u00edlea Gombata\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Expectations for GDP, inflation worsen due to floods in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil\u2019s fiscal situation, U.S. interest rates 05\/21\/2024 S\u00e9rgio Vale \u2014 Foto: Claudio Belli\/Valor A series of negative news and emerging risks have formed a mix that has worsened economic agents\u2019 expectations for the economy in 2024 and 2025. The latest sign of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25042,25041],"class_list":["post-88951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-becomes-murkier-for-2024-and-2025","tag-economic-outlook"],"yoast_head":"\nEconomic outlook becomes murkier for 2024 and 2025 - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/economic-outlook-becomes-murkier-for-2024-and-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic outlook becomes murkier for 2024 and 2025 - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Expectations for GDP, inflation worsen due to floods in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil\u2019s fiscal situation, U.S. interest rates 05\/21\/2024 S\u00e9rgio Vale \u2014 Foto: Claudio Belli\/Valor A series of negative news and emerging risks have formed a mix that has worsened economic agents\u2019 expectations for the economy in 2024 and 2025. 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