{"id":88851,"date":"2024-05-16T12:50:13","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T15:50:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88851"},"modified":"2024-05-16T12:50:15","modified_gmt":"2024-05-16T15:50:15","slug":"u-s-elections-fed-influence-lula-administrations-economic-choices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/u-s-elections-fed-influence-lula-administrations-economic-choices\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. elections, Fed influence Lula administration\u2019s economic choices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em>Entrepreneurs, government officials, and sector experts review business opportunities between Brazil and the U.S.<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>05\/16\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/OxCKA8O2p2VHpTna_ZcpO8I_vAs=\/0x0:1600x1067\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/n\/k\/jMWGjOQeWWkKmocmcPkQ\/summit-valor-galipolo.jpg\" alt=\"Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo, the Brazilian Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Director, alongside former Fed members James Bullard and Kevin Warsh \u2014 Foto: Vanessa Carvalho\/Valor\" style=\"width:696px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo, the Brazilian Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Director, alongside former Fed members James Bullard and Kevin Warsh \u2014 Foto: Vanessa Carvalho\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two significant events in the United States later this year\u2014the potential start of the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate cut cycle and the U.S. presidential elections\u2014will shape the economic policy options of the Lula administration in the coming months. This topic was a key focus at the Summit Valor Econ\u00f4mico Brazil-USA held on Wednesday (16). The event, which took place at The Plaza Hotel in New York, gathered Brazilian and American businesspeople, government officials, and sector experts to discuss the challenges and main business opportunities between the two countries. It also marked the start of a series of activities celebrating Valor\u2019s 25th anniversary, set to conclude in May next year. One goal of these events is to intensify international debates and deepen understanding of Brazilian realities and business prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Frederic Kachar, the general director of Editora Globo and the Globo Radio System, commented, \u201cWe are an economy with one of the five largest trade balances in the world and a monetary policy committed to fighting inflation. However, we still face issues with the exchange rate. We have a clean energy mix, which truly sets us apart from the rest of the world, yet we are not a priority for investment, even by the United States.\u201d He noted that the Brazilian economy has many attributes and differentials that should be more appreciated both domestically and internationally. The event\u2019s eight panels explored ways these could be leveraged for sustainable growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the fiscal side, the need to control spending was emphasized, as stated by Dario Durigan, the executive secretary of the Ministry of Finance. He noted that, alongside initiatives already underway since last year to restore revenues, further efforts to contain spending are necessary. However, Secretary Durigan cautioned that this must be balanced to avoid exacerbating political polarization in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of monetary policy, Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo, the Central Bank\u2019s monetary policy director, indicated a move towards greater cohesion and a more conservative strategy in response to the worsening inflationary scenario following a contentious vote in the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) that stirred market unease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, the government faces challenges in mobilizing resources for emergency relief and rebuilding infrastructure in Rio Grande do Sul, which was severely damaged by heavy rains\u2014an extreme weather event expected to become more frequent. This concern was echoed by many participants at the event, who emphasized the necessity of aid for the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe need for aid in rebuilding, considering this new reality, is crucial,\u201d stated Ilan Goldfajn, president of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), which is collaborating with the government on a R$5.5 billion rescue package for the state. \u201cCountries must adapt and prepare to face what is coming.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The anticipated start of the Federal Reserve\u2019s monetary easing process continues to be delayed, contributing to rising international interest rates due to the increased need for the U.S. Treasury to finance its public deficit. This situation constrains the availability of capital for emerging economies. Kevin Warsh, a former Fed member and potential future head of the institution, stated that if Donald Trump wins the presidential elections again, \u201cI don\u2019t think there will be an interest rate cut until December, and I think that\u2019s the right decision. I don\u2019t see how the Federal Reserve could make cuts before that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upcoming U.S. elections are expected to exacerbate political polarization, which could have similar effects globally and might lead to heightened protectionist measures within a divided geopolitical landscape. \u201cIsolationism is present in both parties,\u201d remarked Scott Jennings, a Republican Party strategist. \u201cThere is a multi-party isolationist movement.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ongoing political polarization further complicates achieving consensus on addressing the U.S. public deficit, which is increasingly necessary given the rise in public debt since the 2008 financial crisis and the likelihood of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for a prolonged period. Mr. Warsh criticized the fiscal expansion under the Biden administration and the Fed\u2019s initial misjudgment of inflation as temporary, stating, \u201cThe bigger the inflation problem, the more regressive the tax on the poor in the United States and around the world. The United States has an obligation to have responsible fiscal and monetary policies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Following a divided vote last week, Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo, speaking publicly at the Summit Valor Econ\u00f4mico Brazil-USA for the first time since the vote, aimed to demonstrate a unified approach to monetary policy that might entail less easing than previously anticipated. He referenced a statement by Central Bank President Roberto Campos, emphasizing the importance of not debating but instead pursuing the target. \u201cDiscussing the pursuit of the target is a forbidden discussion for a Central Bank director. You don\u2019t discuss the target. The target is pursued.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Gal\u00edpolo elaborated on last week\u2019s COPOM meeting debate, which focused on whether to proceed with a signaled 50-basis-point cut in interest rates. New directors like himself argued for adhering to the signaled cuts to establish credibility with the market. \u201cIt\u2019s up to the Central Bank\u2019s directors to set interest rates at a sufficiently restrictive level for as long as it takes to meet the target,\u201d he stated. He also mentioned considering a 20-bp drop and supported the majority\u2019s technical argument for this decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Summit Valor Econ\u00f4mico Brazil-USA, held with master sponsorship from Gulf and JBS and additional sponsorship from Gerdau, JHSF, Cedae, Copel, and Aegea, was supported by multiple government entities and featured Latam and Delta Airlines as the official carriers. The event was organized by Valor Econ\u00f4mico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Alex Ribeiro\u00a0\u2014 New York<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Entrepreneurs, government officials, and sector experts review business opportunities between Brazil and the U.S. 05\/16\/2024 Gabriel Gal\u00edpolo, the Brazilian Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Director, alongside former Fed members James Bullard and Kevin Warsh \u2014 Foto: Vanessa Carvalho\/Valor Two significant events in the United States later this year\u2014the potential start of the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25021,25020],"class_list":["post-88851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-fed-2","tag-u-s-elections"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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