{"id":88832,"date":"2024-05-14T23:08:26","date_gmt":"2024-05-15T02:08:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88832"},"modified":"2024-05-14T23:08:29","modified_gmt":"2024-05-15T02:08:29","slug":"brazil-sees-second-largest-dollar-outflow-ever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazil-sees-second-largest-dollar-outflow-ever\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil sees second-largest dollar outflow ever"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Movement helps explain shift in expectations for the real\u2019s performance<\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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05\/14\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Fabio<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Fabio Landi \u2014 Foto: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investor hopes for a stronger Brazilian real at the turn of the year quickly dissipated. The robustness of Brazil\u2019s trade balance bolstered renewed expectations for the real\u2019s appreciation, similar to last year, when the commercial flow was solid. However, a significant outflow of dollars through the financial account dashed these expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the first four months of the year, Brazil saw the second worst financial flow since the official records began in 1982\u2014a net outflow of $20.8 billion\u2014second only to 2020, which helps to explain the change in expectations for the real\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe contracted exchange rate at the start of this year is much worse than in the same period last year, and the main culprit is the financial flow,\u201d said Ronie Germiniani, head of Ita\u00fa BBA\u2019s exchange desk. \u201cThe trade balance, on the other hand, is in line with what we saw in 2023, with even better numbers, as expected.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the financial flow was negative by $20.8 billion in the first four months, the trade balance showed the opposite movement: it recorded the second-largest dollar inflow since official records began between January and April, totaling $27.6 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mismatch between the commercial and financial flows frustrated many Brazilian investors. Focusing mainly on the influx of dollars from exports, some managers began to bet on the real\u2019s appreciation, anticipating some easing of U.S. monetary policy. For example, Verde Asset bet on the real against the dollar in November last year, citing a \u201cstructural improvement\u201d in the trade balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like Verde, other local asset managers started to view the commercial flow as a key factor for the real\u2019s appreciation. From May 2023 to the end of January this year, local institutional investors\u2019 bets on the Brazilian currency\u2019s appreciation through the derivatives market increased to $17.5 billion from around $4.7 billion, according to data from B3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fabio Landi, a partner at Adam Capital, recalls that at the turn of the year, \u201cthe entire market\u201d calculated the trade balance with the rise in exports and began to work with the expectation of the real\u2019s appreciation. \u201cThe short position in dollars and long in real became consensus, partly due to the perception that the U.S. Federal Reserve would reduce interest rates, leading to a weaker dollar against all currencies; Brazil still had a positive carry, and the balance of payments was strong, meaning all factors pointed towards a real appreciation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The local market correctly anticipated a strong trade balance, which would translate eventually into a robust commercial flow. However, the surprise on the financial account was much more negative than agents had expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adam Capital started the year with long positions in the real but began to switch to short positions (betting on depreciation) by the end of February. \u201cWe never believed in a weak U.S. economy. Despite [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell\u2019s political will to cut rates, we didn\u2019t think the data would be sufficient to warrant a rate cut. This scenario was delayed, and the market realized we were in a high U.S. interest rate environment with a strong dollar. Consequently, the idiosyncratic factors of each country became secondary,\u201d said Mr. Landi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Germiniani of Ita\u00fa also emphasized the importance of the Fed\u2019s decisions for the global market, noting their significant impact on the Brazilian stock exchange\u2019s performance. \u201cWhile it\u2019s challenging to pinpoint the exact reason for the entire outflow through the financial account, one easily traceable factor is the foreign exit from the stock market,\u201d said Mr. Germiniani. \u201cWe\u2019ve seen between $6.5 billion and $7 billion in foreign capital outflows from the stock market this year, which is very significant, accounting for about a third of the total outflow.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the Fed isn\u2019t the only reason for this outflow. Mr. Germiniani said that with the prospect of a more conservative U.S. monetary policy and a market with lower liquidity, foreign investors become more selective and sensitive to local uncertainties. \u201cDoubts about fiscal policy, Petrobras, and even the COPOM [the Brazilian Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee] scare money away from the stock market,\u201d he said, noting that the return of this capital is also more uncertain. \u201cWhen making choices, foreign investors opt not to buy assets from places where there are constant disturbances.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While a third of the capital outflow via the financial account can be explained by disinvestment in the stock market, the explanation for the remaining two-thirds is more elusive. Lu\u00eds Afonso Lima, head of analysis at Mapfre Investimentos, looks to the balance of payments for answers, \u201ceven though the numbers don\u2019t always align.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s been a significant increase in dividend payments by foreign and Brazilian companies to overseas,\u201d Mr. Lima said. This scenario is \u201ccurious\u201d because although the Brazilian economy is doing well, it isn\u2019t robust enough to generate such high profits and lead to such substantial remittances. \u201cThe explanation likely lies in the fact that much of this capital is sent by mineral extraction companies, mainly Vale and Petrobras, benefiting from commodity prices.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, a third factor in the capital outflow through the financial account involves spending on services. \u201cWhen you look in detail at the balance of payments, you notice many expenses related to transportation because conflicts in the Middle East increase freight costs; there are also higher insurance costs and services for telecommunications and computing,\u201d said Mr. Lima. \u201cIt\u2019s hard to say how relevant each factor is for the financial account outflow, but U.S. interest rates certainly explain a large part.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Lima also suggests that the contracted exchange rate scenario will likely worsen before improving. \u201cPerhaps by mid-year, as U.S. disinflation shows consistent signs, we might have more predictability regarding rate cuts in the U.S. In this case, I can see chances of improved flows to emerging markets,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Mr. Germiniani, the mere signal of rate cuts in the U.S. isn\u2019t enough to guarantee a reversal of the capital outflow seen earlier this year. \u201cWe can\u2019t be overly optimistic about the stock market and the flow because the U.S. narrative remains very strong. They have high, very restrictive interest rates, and their economy is booming. Just look at the S&P 500 chart,\u201d he said. \u201cEven though rate cuts would benefit emerging markets, I don\u2019t believe the recovery will be strong.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, Mr. Landi, with Adam Capital, said, \u201cWe\u2019re not yet at a point where we don\u2019t have a strong dollar.\u201d The firm continues to hold small positions in the dollar against the real. Mr. Landi said that the timing for the Fed to start cutting rates remains uncertain, and in Adam\u2019s view, the U.S. central bank may continue to delay the start of a monetary easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Por Arthur Cagliari, Victor Rezende\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Movement helps explain shift in expectations for the real\u2019s performance 05\/14\/2024 Fabio Landi \u2014 Foto: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor Investor hopes for a stronger Brazilian real at the turn of the year quickly dissipated. The robustness of Brazil\u2019s trade balance bolstered renewed expectations for the real\u2019s appreciation, similar to last year, when the commercial flow was solid. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[25016,25015],"class_list":["post-88832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-expectations-for-the-reals-performance","tag-second-largest-dollar-outflow-ever"],"yoast_head":"\nBrazil sees second-largest dollar outflow ever - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/brazil-sees-second-largest-dollar-outflow-ever\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil sees second-largest dollar outflow ever - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Movement helps explain shift in expectations for the real\u2019s performance 05\/14\/2024 Fabio Landi \u2014 Foto: Leo Pinheiro\/Valor Investor hopes for a stronger Brazilian real at the turn of the year quickly dissipated. 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The robustness of Brazil\u2019s trade balance bolstered renewed expectations for the real\u2019s appreciation, similar to last year, when the commercial flow was solid. 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