{"id":88626,"date":"2024-05-02T12:46:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-02T15:46:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88626"},"modified":"2024-05-02T12:46:47","modified_gmt":"2024-05-02T15:46:47","slug":"moodys-raises-outlook-for-brazils-rating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/moodys-raises-outlook-for-brazils-rating\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s raises outlook for Brazil\u2019s rating"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>Change comes just over two weeks after Brazil reduced the fiscal target for 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>05\/02\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/TTHngMLQzlaOaO3j1u9b5i9TnDU=\/0x0:1000x750\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/9\/1\/ANYLFbST6LRwp8oWVqkA\/dario-durigan-marcelo-camargo-agencia-brasil.png\" alt=\"Dario Durigan \u2014 Foto: Marcelo Camargo\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil\" style=\"width:482px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Dario Durigan \u2014 Foto: Marcelo Camargo\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moody\u2019s raised on Wednesday (1) Brazil\u2019s Ba2 credit rating outlook to positive, from stable, indicating an improved chance of upgrading the country\u2019s rating in the future. The agency cited positive GDP growth prospects and continued, albeit gradual, progress toward fiscal consolidation. The change comes just over two weeks after the country reduced the fiscal target for 2025 and 2026, which caused market stress and losses for domestic assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year, the other two main rating agencies\u2014S&amp;P and Fitch\u2014upgraded the country\u2019s rating. However, in the three agencies\u2019 reading, Brazil remains below the best-rated countries, those with an investment grade. Despite the improved outlook, Moody\u2019s cited negative aspects of the Brazilian economy, such as a high public indebtedness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the assessment released on Wednesday (1), Moody\u2019s affirmed that GDP growth prospects are \u201cmore robust than in the pre-pandemic years, supported by the implementation of structural reforms over multiple administrations, as well as the presence of institutional guardrails that reduce uncertainty around future policy direction.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The agency expects real GDP growth of around 2% in 2024 and 2025, on average. Over the medium term, the expectation is well above the annual average rate of a 0.5% contraction seen from 2015 to 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn the next few years, Moody\u2019s anticipates growth will be broad-based extending to both the industry and the services sectors with domestic demand propelled by a strong labor market and higher real wages,\u201d the agency wrote, also citing the government\u2019s energy transition agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The report also highlighted improvements in the monetary policy framework, strengthening of the Central Bank\u2019s independence, improvements in the governance of state-owned companies, and measures to boost the business environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe upcoming overhaul of the tax regime, while taking effect over a long period, also marks a notable structural reform,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for the fiscal scenario, the agency says the framework introduced last year is expected to result in gradual consolidation of public accounts. \u201cMoody\u2019s expects Brazil\u2019s primary and overall fiscal deficits will narrow in 2024-2025 supported by revenue measures,\u201d the agency said, projecting stabilization of government debt in a few years unless there is some type of shock in the economy. However, Moody\u2019s points out that risks to fiscal consolidation efforts remain due to the government\u2019s reliance on fiscal revenue growth and restricted ability to cut spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The maintenance of the Ba2 rating reflects \u201cstill relatively weak fiscal strength, given Brazil\u2019s spending rigidity, high debt burden, and weak debt affordability.\u201d The rating also takes into account Brazil\u2019s sovereign credit strengths, which include a large and diversified economy, moderately strong institutions and governance, and a solid external position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among the factors that could lead to an upgrade in the rating, Moody\u2019s cited an improvement in the primary result and fiscal deficits, which would enhance fiscal policy credibility, as well as continued solid GDP growth. Negative risks would be a weakening of the commitment to fiscal consolidation and, as a consequence, negative credit pressure. \u201cPersistently low GDP growth would represent a credit-negative development that would adversely affect Brazil\u2019s credit profile,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the review of Brazil\u2019s rating outlook by Moody\u2019s is considered positive by the market, agents pointed out that the timing was unexpected, especially given the signals that the government has been sending in the fiscal area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Carlos Kawall, former Treasury Secretary and a partner at Oriz Partners, the government\u2019s attempts to weaken the fiscal framework and structural reforms of recent years go in the opposite direction of the points cited by Moody\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn recent months, the government has been taking steps towards weakening the framework, questioning the Central Bank\u2019s autonomy and privatizations, and seeking to change the labor reform, while the improvement in the outlook is linked to these reforms,\u201d he argues. \u201cThe intentions expressed to go backward in these reforms are in the opposite direction to the improvement in the outlook,\u201d he points out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Kawall argues that the government should not consider the outlook change as an endorsement of recent measures. \u201cThat would be an opportunistic reading. The change in the outlook is positive but it was made looking back, seeing reforms that ensure greater potential growth,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economics research at Goldman Sachs, sees the new bias in the current rating as positive. \u201cHowever, the timing was unexpected, following the market stress around the change in the trajectory of the government\u2019s primary results,\u201d he said. \u201cFiscal concerns have grown, not diminished. And a lot remains to be defined regarding reforms, including tax overhaul.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the opinion of Marcelo Fonseca, chief economist at Reag Investimentos, the change was \u201cinappropriate\u201d as it did not consider, for example, the shift in fiscal target announced last month. \u201cIt seems like we are talking about two different countries,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to him, \u201cthe shift to a more flexible fiscal regime, as was the approved framework, does not place the country on a level of stability.\u201d Furthermore, \u201cfiscal targets are also very difficult to achieve.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cEven from a political point of view, the government has struggled to defend its agendas in the Parliament, which will impact the primary result,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Mr. Fonseca, the change is not expected to have major impacts on asset prices. Combined with the fact that it does not change Brazil\u2019s \u201cspeculative\u201d grade, \u201cinvestors know what the real risks of investing in Brazil are.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The improvement in Brazil\u2019s rating outlook was welcomed by the government. To Valor, Dario Durigan, executive secretary of the Ministry of Finance, said the review reinforces that the federal government\u2019s economic agenda is \u201con the right track.\u201d As examples of the strengths of the Brazilian economy, he mentioned \u201cgrowing GDP, falling unemployment, increasing household income, strong external accounts, low inflation, and recovering fiscal [situation].\u201d Mr. Durigan also emphasized the implementation of \u201cimportant reforms\u201d to increase the \u201cproductivity of the economy in the medium and long terms,\u201d including tax overhaul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another source from the government\u2019s economic team adopted a similar speech but acknowledged that the warnings made by Moody\u2019s reinforce \u201cthe importance of not slacking off and remaining firm\u201d in pursuing the balance of public accounts. For this source, the game \u201cis not over\u201d, and society \u201cneeds to continue supporting our agenda for the sake of the country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Government officials also used their social media accounts to comment on the change and highlight the roles of the Legislative and Judiciary branches. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said the review \u201chas to do with the joint work of the three branches of government, which placed the country\u2019s interests above surmountable differences.\u201d Minister of Planning and Budget Simone Tebet said there is a joining of \u201cefforts by the government, Parliament, and the Judiciary to overcome budgetary challenges and boost our economy.\u201d President Lula said Brazil \u201cis once again respected worldwide\u201d and \u201chas credibility.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Augusto Decker, Estev\u00e3o Taiar, Caetano Tonet, Gabriela Pereira\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo and Bras\u00edlia<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Change comes just over two weeks after Brazil reduced the fiscal target for 2025 05\/02\/2024 Dario Durigan \u2014 Foto: Marcelo Camargo\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil Moody\u2019s raised on Wednesday (1) Brazil\u2019s Ba2 credit rating outlook to positive, from stable, indicating an improved chance of upgrading the country\u2019s rating in the future. The agency cited positive GDP growth prospects [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[24953,24954],"class_list":["post-88626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-brazils-rating","tag-moodys-raises-outlook"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Moody\u2019s raises outlook for Brazil\u2019s rating - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/moodys-raises-outlook-for-brazils-rating\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moody\u2019s raises outlook for Brazil\u2019s rating - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Change comes just over two weeks after Brazil reduced the fiscal target for 2025 05\/02\/2024 Dario Durigan \u2014 Foto: Marcelo Camargo\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil Moody\u2019s raised on Wednesday (1) Brazil\u2019s Ba2 credit rating outlook to positive, from stable, indicating an improved chance of upgrading the country\u2019s rating in the future. 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