{"id":88386,"date":"2024-04-25T14:49:33","date_gmt":"2024-04-25T17:49:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88386"},"modified":"2024-04-25T14:49:35","modified_gmt":"2024-04-25T17:49:35","slug":"outlook-change-raises-concerns-as-earnings-season-kicks-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/outlook-change-raises-concerns-as-earnings-season-kicks-off\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook change raises concerns as earnings season kicks off"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>Deterioration in interest rate and exchange rate projections diminishes the importance of first-quarter figures, shifting focus to executives\u2019 forecasts<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>04\/25\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/wUL0ikJTRRrlV4M-D50i5qne_xI=\/0x641:2560x3471\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/b\/h\/czkC0bSXqbjZbAA7apEw\/241023xp013.jpg\" alt=\"Jennie Li \u2014 Foto: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor\" style=\"width:496px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Jennie Li \u2014 Foto: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first-quarter earnings season for Brazilian companies, which picked up steam this week, is set to reveal a snapshot of a scenario that for many firms is already in the rearview mirror. Analysts say that worsening projections for both the global and Brazilian economies have dimmed the allure of these numbers, elevating the importance of executives\u2019 assessments and projections during earnings calls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, expectations are that the figures for the first three months of the year will continue the trend of sequential improvement over fourth-quarter results, especially for companies operating in the domestic market. For commodity exporters, the impact of falling input prices is expected to be felt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn the first quarter, we saw a revision in profit estimates, supported by the prospect of falling interest rates and the positive results companies reported in the fourth quarter, but this changed dramatically in the early weeks of April,\u201d Jennie Li, a strategist at XP, told Valor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She said that since August last year, market consensus on profits had been revised upwards by nearly 10%. However, with the intensification of uncertainties this April, there has been a decrease of about 1% in these analyst estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe expect that the resumption of activity, real wage gains, and employment should have positive effects mainly on the results of consumer sectors,\u201d said Carlos Eduardo Sequeira, head of research at BTG Pactual. \u201cIt won\u2019t be a spectacularly stronger season, but the trend should continue.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consumer companies are expected to stand out, with improvements in operational data and margins. However, Santander noted in a report that changes in the tax regime, with the implementation of tax changes on subsidies, are expected to impact the profit generation of a large part of the companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Passed last year, Law 1479\/2023 increases government revenue by establishing criteria for deducting the value of benefits from the ICMS sales tax base of federal taxes. Only the value of incentives used in investments can be deducted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The intense heatwave that hit Brazil in the early months of the year, due to the effects of El Ni\u00f1o, is expected to positively impact the results of power distribution companies and water utilities. Increased volumes of electricity and water are expected to improve these companies\u2019 figures, said J.P. Morgan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among commodity producers, those in the paper and pulp industry are expected to be the positive highlights. \u201cWe saw a substantial rise in prices that should generate more robust results, especially for Suzano, which deals directly with the commodity,\u201d Ms. Li stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil companies should also post strong figures, with Petrobras being a highlight, even with falling oil prices, due to high production volumes in Brazil. The outlook is also positive with the recent acceleration in oil prices, the XP strategist said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mining companies and steelmakers are still expected to face pressured results, with the sharp fall in iron ore prices in the first quarter impacting these companies\u2019 figures. Mining giant Vale announced its results on Wednesday night, with a 9% drop in profit to $1.68 billion. The steel industry scenario, especially in Brazil, is still challenging and is expected to keep these companies\u2019 performances weak, said BTG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this context, due to the significant shift in perspectives we have seen in recent weeks, more important than the results themselves, what the companies indicate for the coming months will be crucial for investors to have better visibility of outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The exchange rate rose to near R$5.3 per dollar in the first weeks of April. The interest rate curve steepened, largely due to uncertainties involving the evolution of inflation in the United States and the Brazilian government\u2019s indication that the zero-deficit target has been postponed to 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Steelmaker Usiminas, which released its results on Tuesday morning, showed more conservative prospects for the second quarter, noting that the stronger dollar has an impact on the price of steel plate acquisitions, directly affecting its profitability. The steelmaker ended the day down 13.91% in the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn the United States, market consensus adjusts faster than here, so after listening to what the companies said during the earnings season, there may be a greater revision,\u201d said Ms. Li.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Felipe Laurence\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Deterioration in interest rate and exchange rate projections diminishes the importance of first-quarter figures, shifting focus to executives\u2019 forecasts 04\/25\/2024 Jennie Li \u2014 Foto: Ana Paula Paiva\/Valor The first-quarter earnings season for Brazilian companies, which picked up steam this week, is set to reveal a snapshot of a scenario that for many firms is already [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[24918,24917],"class_list":["post-88386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-deterioration-in-interest-rate-and-exchange-rate","tag-outlook-change-raises-concerns"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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