{"id":88260,"date":"2024-04-18T10:56:55","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T13:56:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88260"},"modified":"2024-04-18T10:56:56","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T13:56:56","slug":"analysis-central-bank-president-opens-options-for-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/analysis-central-bank-president-opens-options-for-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Central Bank president opens options for interest rates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong><em>Roberto Campos Neto argued that it is still unclear what, from the recent turmoil, will or will not become more perennial<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>04\/18\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/Z4eJsDFTW5SnJUOfOWOkg9JtDKc=\/0x0:3840x2560\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2023\/O\/b\/qf7J6nQJSw4efzLgJvMg\/campos-neto-drexl-mcamgo-abr-07122023-2.jpg\" alt=\"Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Marcelo Camargo\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil\" style=\"width:576px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Marcelo Camargo\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil\u2019s Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto got rid of the forward guidance that indicated a 50-basis-point interest rate cut for the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) in May and left open four possibilities. At an XP Investimentos event in Washington, he said that international and fiscal uncertainties have increased too much to allow the COPOM to keep the old promise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, he argued that it is still unclear what, from the recent turmoil, could remain in place for enough time to affect the Central Bank\u2019s work in lowering inflation to the target\u2014and consequently, the trajectory of the Selic policy rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Three weeks before the next COPOM meeting, Mr. Campos Neto listed four theoretically possible scenarios that could lead to different outcomes for the decision to be made on the interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First hypothesis: \u201cWe could see a reduction in uncertainty, which means we would follow the usual path.\u201d He was not explicit about what the usual path would be, but apparently it would be a reduction in interest rates by 50 basis points, as was previously signaled, to 10.25% per year from 10.75%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second hypothesis: \u201cWe could have a situation where uncertainty remains very high, but it does not change significantly. That would mean a reduction in pace.\u201d That is, the Central Bank would cut 25 basis points, to 10.5% per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Third hypothesis: \u201cWe could have a situation where uncertainty begins to affect more strongly important variables, and we would have to change the balance of risks.\u201d Mr. Campos Neto was not explicit about what this hypothesis would mean for interest rates, but the logic of the gradation he employed seems to indicate a maintenance of the rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fourth hypothesis: \u201cWe could have a scenario where uncertainty worsens, creating global stress. In this case, we would change our global scenario,\u201d said Mr. Campos Neto. In this case, apparently, he is referring to the possibility of raising the policy rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This way, the Central Bank\u2019s chief provided a sort of roadmap for the financial market to monitor the development of the recent crisis\u2014international and fiscal\u2014in order to anticipate the COPOM\u2019s reaction to each of the situations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And why didn\u2019t he deliver a hawkish, more direct message? For him, with the current high degree of uncertainty, it\u2019s difficult to anticipate the situation that the COPOM will encounter in three weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYou do not want to react too much to short-term data, but at the same time you do not want to ignore a structural change to the point of losing your credibility,\u201d said Mr. Campos Neto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To know what the COPOM will do, it\u2019s important to pay attention to what Mr. Campos Neto said about what is a surprise and what is not in recent events. It\u2019s also good to re-examine the Central Bank\u2019s so-called reaction function, that is, how it uses the new information that will emerge in the next three weeks to make its decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said he kind of expected the worsening in the international environment. This helps to understand why he said last week, after the release of U.S. inflation data, that the scenario had not changed substantially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But another factor wasn\u2019t in the Central Bank\u2019s calculations: the deterioration of Brazil\u2019s fiscal situation. Still, on at least two occasions he expressed doubts that this worsening will translate into a permanent increase in the risk premium. \u201cWhen you change [the fiscal target], the premium moves further,\u201d he said. \u201cI hope that doesn\u2019t happen.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Campos Neto expressed concern, in particular, about the relationship between fiscal credibility and monetary credibility. The main indicator that the Central Bank has lost credibility will be inflation expectations, especially longer-term ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for the monetary policy reaction function, the main message is that there is no mechanical relationship between fiscal policy, external environment, and monetary policy. It will be necessary to see how these recent events affect the COPOM\u2019s central scenario for inflation and the balance of risks. This is what will determine which of the four hypotheses above will be adopted by the COPOM at its next meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Alex Ribeiro\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Roberto Campos Neto argued that it is still unclear what, from the recent turmoil, will or will not become more perennial 04\/18\/2024 Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Marcelo Camargo\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil Brazil\u2019s Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto got rid of the forward guidance that indicated a 50-basis-point interest rate cut for the next meeting of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[8740,24876],"class_list":["post-88260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-central-bank","tag-options-for-interest-rates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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