{"id":88230,"date":"2024-04-17T11:35:47","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T14:35:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88230"},"modified":"2024-04-17T11:35:48","modified_gmt":"2024-04-17T14:35:48","slug":"haddad-blames-external-factors-for-weakened-real","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/haddad-blames-external-factors-for-weakened-real\/","title":{"rendered":"Haddad blames external factors for weakened real"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Exchange rate reached highest level in more than a year after federal government presented new fiscal targets<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>04\/17\/2024 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/eD4hyV7P7VRFpvNZ5z08J8U8ohw=\/0x0:2000x1333\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/F\/1\/sA1esCSWmiw6BdDbdmTg\/106598755-mnistro-20fernando-20haddad-20durante-20reuni-c3-a3o-20com-20embaixadores-20dos-20estados-20membros-20da-20uni-c3-a3o-20euro.jpg\" alt=\"Fernando Haddad \u2014 Foto: Diogo Zacarias\/MF\" style=\"width:570px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Fernando Haddad \u2014 Foto: Diogo Zacarias\/MF<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Tuesday in Washington that news from abroad explain \u201ctwo-thirds\u201d of what is happening domestically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rise in the exchange rate in the last two days coincides with the government\u2019s new fiscal target, which now forecasts a zero result in 2025, compared to the previous prediction of a surplus of 0.5% of GDP. On a bad day for emerging currencies in the world, the exchange rate rose 1.64% on Tuesday, to R$5.2697 per dollar, the highest closing level since March 23, 2023, with an intraday high of R$5.2873.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Mr. Haddad, among the factors that affect the exchange rate are data that indicate heated economic activity in the United States, U.S. inflation data \u201cthat has not yet been fully digested,\u201d and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East after Iran attacked Israel, with an impact on the price of a barrel of oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the minister, the rise of the exchange rate in Brazil is also due, in part, to turbulence caused by the disclosure of the new fiscal target. \u201cIt is necessary to better explain over time what will happen to Brazilian government accounts.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The minister said that the new goal is realistic and embodies learning from the government in recent months. He also argued that the goal aligns with the long-term aim of stabilizing public debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts said, however, that as long as the primary surplus does not come close to 1% of GDP, gross debt will continue to rise. The government had previously envisioned achieving an economy of 1% of GDP in 2026, but now sees this only happening in 2028 \u2014 therefore, in a new presidential term. For 2026, now the forecast is for a surplus of 0.25% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Haddad said that Brazil is experiencing a week of turbulence and that, after this tense moment, \u201cthings will settle down.\u201d However, he took the opportunity to say that it may be a good time to \u201crethink strategies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe external scenario isn\u2019t helping. As for the domestic scenario, we are correcting it by dialoguing with the federal government and the National Congress. Since the issue is more delicate, let\u2019s now take a moment to rethink the strategy and redefine the role of each one to restabilize expectations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Haddad gave examples of programs such as the Emergency Program for the Rebound of the Events Sector (PERSE), whose rapporteur, Congresswoman Renata Abreu, defends tax waivers of R$5 billion per year. He is in Washington for the biannual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe understand that Congress has its goals, but we have to bring this program close to normal, close to reasonableness. It is very unrestrained, open to fraud\u2014there has been fraud and the Federal Revenue Service is combating it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Haddad said the country cannot get off the \u201cgrowth track.\u201d \u201cWhat is happening today is a message to the federal government, it is a message to the National Congress, it is a message to the justice system, it is a message to the Finance Ministry, it is a message to Planning Ministry, it is a message to the Central Bank. Let\u2019s understand and reposition. We have no reason from the point of view of the fundamentals of the Brazilian economy to get off the correct track of making this country grow again with low inflation and job generation,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After the new IMF projections for the Brazilian economy, he said he expected the organization to review \u201cfor the better\u201d the country\u2019s GDP growth estimates. \u201cWe will also follow what happens in the global economy because we depend on it too.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IMF said on Tuesday that it expects the Brazilian economy to grow by 2.2% this year and 2.1% in 2025. The forecast for Brazilian GDP this year is 0.5 percentage points higher than that released by the Fund in January. The forecast for next year was raised by 0.2 percentage points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IMF\u2019s projections are higher than those of the Focus survey, collected weekly by the Central Bank, forecasting a GDP increase of 1.95% this year and 2% in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe continue to project 2.2% [of GDP growth in 2024], although activity indicators are heated. We are receiving good news from the end, both from the point of view of collection and from the point of view of production and sale. Credit is particularly increasing in Brazil. However, we will be parsimonious, we will continue to maintain our expectation of 2.2%, but with a small upward bias,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Haddad also said he believes that, despite the turmoil, there is room for interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to him, the fundamentals of the Brazilian economy \u201care better than a year ago.\u201d For him, the adjustments made by the government ensured an improvement both from the point of view of revenue and the point of view of expenditure. However, he expressed concern about Social Security finances after recent bills passed by Congress, adding that the government is likely to appeal in the courts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re not going to have the primary spending that we had last year. We\u2019re not going to have the primary revenue that we had last year. The revenue will be much better, the expense will be much lower. Where do the tax receipts come from? From the measures that Congress passed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Asked about the exhaustion of the measures, he answered that the extension of the tax relief, especially in the municipalities, was not on anyone\u2019s radar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe payroll relief is something that bumps into the Social Security reform, which everyone defended, from this point of view, all the time. All political parties argued that Social Security could not lose revenue. Then comes an amendment, in a bill. The president vetoes, overturning the veto, and we reopen the discussion,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por Alexandra Bicca\u00a0\u2014 Washington<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Exchange rate reached highest level in more than a year after federal government presented new fiscal targets 04\/17\/2024 Fernando Haddad \u2014 Foto: Diogo Zacarias\/MF Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Tuesday in Washington that news from abroad explain \u201ctwo-thirds\u201d of what is happening domestically. The rise in the exchange rate in the last two days [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[24865,24864],"class_list":["post-88230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-haddad-blames-external-factors","tag-weakened-real"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Haddad blames external factors for weakened real - Murray Advogados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/haddad-blames-external-factors-for-weakened-real\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Haddad blames external factors for weakened real - Murray Advogados\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Exchange rate reached highest level in more than a year after federal government presented new fiscal targets 04\/17\/2024 Fernando Haddad \u2014 Foto: Diogo Zacarias\/MF Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Tuesday in Washington that news from abroad explain \u201ctwo-thirds\u201d of what is happening domestically. 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