{"id":88208,"date":"2024-04-16T16:58:31","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T19:58:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/?p=88208"},"modified":"2024-04-16T16:58:34","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T19:58:34","slug":"monetary-policy-costs-rise-without-fiscal-anchor-central-banker-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/murray.adv.br\/en\/monetary-policy-costs-rise-without-fiscal-anchor-central-banker-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Monetary policy costs rise without fiscal anchor, central banker says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Roberto Campos Neto said monetary authority\u2019s work becomes more challenging if fiscal policy lacks credibility<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>16\/04\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s2-valorinternational.glbimg.com\/L3LxyFQHEfP6YuvXndlspTvtjxo=\/0x0:3840x2560\/984x0\/smart\/filters:strip_icc()\/i.s3.glbimg.com\/v1\/AUTH_37554604729d4b2f9f3eb9ad8a691345\/internal_photos\/bs\/2024\/o\/S\/4RsiUvR7iw7xhGLlgVSA\/img-5686.jpg\" alt=\"Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Rovena Rosa\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil\" style=\"width:580px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Rovena Rosa\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The work of the Central Bank becomes more difficult if there is a perception that there is no fiscal anchor, said Roberto Campos Neto, the president of the Brazilian Central Bank, during an event in New York on Monday. Asked how changes in fiscal rules affect the work of monetary policy, he explained that central banks have to refrain from making comments on fiscal policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, he emphasized that \u201cfiscal and monetary anchors go hand in hand, and whenever there is a change that makes the fiscal trajectory less transparent or less credible, it means having to bear higher costs on the other side. Therefore, the cost of conducting monetary policy increases.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The president of the Central Bank noted, however, that the market \u201chad a much worse outlook for the fiscal situation than the target actually adopted by the government.\u201d Mr. Campos Neto added, \u201cI have been saying for a long time that the ideal is not to change the goals and do as much as possible to achieve these goals.\u201d But \u201cif, for some reason, we have to change it, it\u2019s very important to communicate well, because if people lose confidence in the fiscal anchor, the monetary anchor will be affected.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fact that the United States is postponing the start of the monetary easing cycle, with expectations consolidating around a higher rate at the end of the cycle, may begin to draw attention to the debts of the main developed countries, the central banker said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhen we look at what happened in the U.S., people thought for a while that rate cuts would start in March. And when that doesn\u2019t happen, the window basically moves in time as a result, and now that the [inflation and activity] data is disappointing [coming in stronger than expected], the terminal rate changes as a result.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his view, \u201cthere was a re-pricing of rates [by the market], but what we should observe and which will probably become the next big issue is that we are about to start a debate on global debt.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the president of the Brazilian Central Bank, \u201cthe fact that the U.S. is now postponing the cycle, but also has a higher terminal rate, will make people talk about the debt.\u201d Mr. Campos Neto cited that the largest blocs of developed economies\u2014Japan, Europe, and the U.S. \u2014 have a sovereign debt representing a large proportion of the total global debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf you look at the fact that they paid close to 1% [before inflation returned] on the debt rollover, and if that goes to 3%, it means a threefold higher cost on the largest debt on the planet. So I think the next topic we\u2019re going to talk about is not the inflation window. Last year, when no one was talking about it, we mentioned that we didn\u2019t see disinflation processes as smooth as some people were saying. Now agents are pricing to some extent that the cycle is going to be delayed a bit. The next big question will be about what happens to total debt.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Mr. Campos Neto, \u201cthe fiscal policy is becoming less and less coordinated with the monetary [in most of the world].\u201d For him, when we entered the pandemic, it was very easy to coordinate the responses. \u201cYou increase spending and reduce [interest] rates,\u201d he said about stimulus programs<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBut the end of that is being very difficult to coordinate. And there\u2019s nothing more permanent than a temporary spending program. That was a phrase I borrowed from Milton Friedman. But you see it in many different places, and I think it will become a problem.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Por S\u00e9rgio Tauhata\u00a0\u2014 S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Valor International<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/valorinternational.globo.com\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Roberto Campos Neto said monetary authority\u2019s work becomes more challenging if fiscal policy lacks credibility 16\/04\/2024 Roberto Campos Neto \u2014 Foto: Rovena Rosa\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil The work of the Central Bank becomes more difficult if there is a perception that there is no fiscal anchor, said Roberto Campos Neto, the president of the Brazilian Central Bank, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8106],"tags":[24860,24859],"class_list":["post-88208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-murray-news","tag-fiscal-policy-lacks-credibility","tag-monetary-policy-costs-rise"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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